| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 6,280 | 72¢ | 73.5¢ | $4,616 | +$94 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | 11.0k | 35.9¢ | 27.5¢ | $3,014 | −$918 | $0 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 2,849 | 65.4¢ | 71¢ | $2,022 | +$158 | +$358 | |
| Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | No | 1,926 | 72¢ | 96.6¢ | $1,859 | +$473 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 5,532 | 22.1¢ | 27¢ | $1,494 | +$270 | +$24 | |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 4,882 | 43.9¢ | 30.5¢ | $1,489 | −$654 | $0 | |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 4,899 | 23¢ | 22.5¢ | $1,102 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,662 | 67.7¢ | 23.5¢ | $1,095 | −$2,059 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 6,000 | 16.6¢ | 14.2¢ | $849 | −$147 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,110 | 7.5¢ | 69.4¢ | $771 | +$687 | +$1,170 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 663 | 42.9¢ | 93.5¢ | $620 | +$336 | +$2,261 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7,494 | 16¢ | 6.5¢ | $487 | −$712 | $0 | |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | Yes | 600 | 57.6¢ | 79.5¢ | $477 | +$131 | $0 | |
| Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | Yes | 471 | 70.3¢ | 97.9¢ | $461 | +$130 | $0 | |
| Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | Yes | 293 | 71¢ | 96.9¢ | $283 | +$76 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,945 | 11.1¢ | 9¢ | $265 | −$63 | $0 | |
| Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | Yes | 518 | 50.6¢ | 50.5¢ | $262 | −$0.54 | +$1,098 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 243 | 35¢ | 28.5¢ | $69 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 16.9¢ | $17 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 8.5¢ | $8.50 | +$7.08 | $0 | |
| Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 8.2¢ | $8.20 | +$6.78 | $0 | |
| Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 3¢ | $3.00 | +$1.58 | $0 | |
| Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 3¢ | $3.00 | +$1.58 | $0 | |
| Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2.5¢ | $2.45 | +$1.03 | $0 | |
| Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2.2¢ | $2.15 | +$0.73 | $0 | |
| Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2.1¢ | $2.05 | +$0.63 | $0 | |
| Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2¢ | $2.00 | +$0.58 | $0 | |
| Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2¢ | $2.00 | +$0.58 | $0 | |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2¢ | $1.95 | +$0.53 | $0 | |
| Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2¢ | $1.95 | +$0.53 | $0 | |
| Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.45 | +$0.03 | $0 | |
| Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.45 | +$0.03 | $0 | |
| Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.1¢ | $1.05 | −$0.37 | $0 | |
| Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.1¢ | $1.05 | −$0.37 | $0 | |
| Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.90 | −$0.52 | $0 | |
| Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.90 | −$0.52 | $0 | |
| Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.85 | −$0.57 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.7¢ | $0.65 | −$0.77 | $0 | |
| Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $0.40 | −$1.02 | $0 | |
| Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.05 | −$1.37 | $0 | |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 73.1k | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,002 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 59.2k | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,071 | −$104 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | No | 47.3k | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,833 | −$28 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 35.3k | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$805 | −$0.27 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 34.3k | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,433 | −$205 | |
| Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee? | Yes | 20.4k | 22.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,561 | −$141 | |
| Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? | Yes | 14.8k | 17.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,533 | −$84 | |
| Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | No | 12.5k | 25.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,138 | +$868 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 12.1k | 5.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$636 | −$24 | |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 11.3k | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,422 | −$5.95 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | No | 10.5k | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,047 | −$36 | |
| Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? | Yes | 10.3k | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,435 | −$49 | |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 9,777 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,371 | −$46 | |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | Yes | 8,697 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$870 | $0 | |
| Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | Yes | 8,411 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$503 | −$19 | |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | Yes | 7,163 | 26.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,895 | −$278 | |
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? | No | 7,147 | 48.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,463 | −$42 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 6,500 | 30.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,011 | −$56 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 6,166 | 11.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$696 | −$25 | |
| Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | No | 5,994 | 28.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,700 | −$33 | |
| Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? | Yes | 5,377 | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,688 | −$46 | |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,373 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$103 | −$765 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 5,027 | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$89 | $0 | |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | No | 4,862 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$170 | −$6.57 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 4,815 | 52.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,511 | $0 | |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? | Yes | 4,137 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$620 | $0 | |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | Yes | 3,975 | 29.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,186 | −$33 | |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 3,901 | 28.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,102 | −$0.63 | |
| Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee? | No | 3,602 | 74.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,677 | $0 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? | Yes | 3,476 | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$663 | +$4.88 | |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | Yes | 3,447 | 33.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,145 | +$2.43 | |
| Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | Yes | 2,976 | 27.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$824 | +$1,449 | |
| Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee? | No | 2,732 | 20¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$546 | −$17 | |
| Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 2,729 | 24.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$662 | −$19 | |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 2,646 | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$501 | −$281 | |
| Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? | No | 2,431 | 29.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$717 | −$20 | |
| Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | Yes | 2,175 | 29.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$647 | −$18 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,100 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$336 | $0 | |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | Yes | 1,742 | 36.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$641 | +$718 | |
| Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 1,632 | 14.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$232 | −$7.94 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | Yes | 1,603 | 45¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$722 | −$16 | |
| Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1,498 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$31 | +$63 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,466 | 45.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$666 | −$15 | |
| Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | No | 1,413 | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$76 | −$2.87 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | Yes | 1,351 | 10.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$142 | −$5.10 | |
| Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee? | No | 1,309 | 20.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$264 | −$8.43 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? | Yes | 1,257 | 5.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$73 | +$607 | |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? | No | 1,081 | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$138 | +$779 | |
| Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee? | Yes | 1,014 | 75.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$765 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 73¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$730 | $0 | |
| Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee? | Yes | 834 | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$149 | −$4.90 | |
| Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 802 | 38.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$309 | −$7.60 | |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | Yes | 782 | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$99 | −$4.33 | |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | No | 660 | 34¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$224 | −$5.92 | |
| Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 607 | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher? | Yes | 473 | 30¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$142 | −$636 | |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? | Yes | 430 | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 378 | 45.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$173 | −$3.76 | |
| Will Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee? | Yes | 376 | 42.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$161 | −$3.68 | |
| Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%? | Yes | 371 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | −$1.33 | |
