sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,301

Dragontree

0x2c3…56dc
SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$152kvol $15.9M
PnL 30d+$4,411gains $52.8k · losses $50.8k
PnL 7d−$1,895win rate 7d 63.6%
Win rate61.2%adj 60.7% · 30d 61.3%
Open value$59.0kcash n/a
Positions47 / 2,648open / all-time
Max drawdown−25.7%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 2h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$164kbelow peak −$41.8kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

70/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale74
Adjusted win rateraw 61.2% · shrunk toward 50%52
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity74

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$75.7kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$35.4kUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · Yesclosed+$28.1kWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$20.2kWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$9,842

Worst markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$29.0kWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$12.1kUS ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? · Yesclosed−$11.6kWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$8,665US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yesclosed−$8,329

Open positions · 47

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No16.7k79.1¢78.5¢$13.1k−$94$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No14.4k88.4¢88.5¢$12.8k+$17−$110
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes10.1k57.8¢48.4¢$4,869−$944$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes5,52066.3¢62.5¢$3,450−$209−$165
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes4,66960.3¢69.4¢$3,240+$427+$36
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No4,90468.5¢64.5¢$3,163−$196−$34
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No3,07290¢92.5¢$2,842+$77$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes3,38273.2¢74.5¢$2,519+$45$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes2,35261¢56¢$1,317−$118−$3.37
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes1,62970.6¢77.5¢$1,263+$113+$11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes1,11195¢94.4¢$1,048−$7.22$0
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?No1,01090.7¢99.7¢$1,006+$90+$57
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes3,23427¢26.5¢$857−$16+$5.20
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No1,06723.8¢80¢$854+$599$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes4,75511.8¢12.8¢$609+$46$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No59893.3¢95.7¢$572+$14$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes1,15248.7¢45.5¢$524−$37+$9.49
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?No90781¢51.5¢$467−$268$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes64486.3¢68.5¢$441−$115−$770
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No52980¢83¢$439+$16$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes2,29334.8¢18.5¢$424−$375$0
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No45076¢81.5¢$367+$25$0
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No50768¢71.5¢$362+$18$0
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?No32473.3¢99.5¢$322+$85$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes35482¢83¢$294+$3.54$0
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes6,5067.6¢4.5¢$293−$201$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Yes4204.6¢69.2¢$290+$271$0
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes79054.9¢30.5¢$241−$192$0
SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?Yes55136.3¢40¢$220+$21+$40
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?No15560.2¢95.2¢$147+$54$0
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?No34377¢37.5¢$129−$136$0
SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?Yes30844.4¢41.5¢$128−$8.79+$9.32
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Yes4,5414¢2¢$91−$91−$68
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?No1,0235¢8¢$82+$31$0
Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes2,3261¢2.2¢$50+$27$0
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?Yes8509.7¢5.6¢$48−$35$0
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes5,5551.4¢0.7¢$36−$42$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes2,1144.3¢1.2¢$24−$67+$2,821
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes9771.1¢2.1¢$21+$9.77$0
US strike on Mexico by December 31?No2083¢96.3¢$19+$2.66$0
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Yes57315.9¢2.5¢$14−$77+$4,147
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes3351.6¢2.7¢$8.89+$3.67$0
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?No7-56.9¢95.4¢$6.79+$11+$667
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?No563¢19.5¢$0.97−$2.17$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes3560.4¢0.1¢$0.18−$1.25$0
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?Yes1639¢0¢$0−$6.43$0
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?No657¢0¢$0−$3.54$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?77.1¢10.0k$7,74561%70Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?88¢1,186$1,04361%70Sharp
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?16.9¢3,215$54361%70Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?61.6¢2,352$1,45061%70Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?95¢1,111$1,05561%70Sharp
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?5¢1,023$5161%70Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?70.2¢14.3k$10.1k61%70WhaleSharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?68.5¢5,090$3,48761%70Sharp
SELL NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?84¢10.0k$8,40061%70Sharp
BUY NoWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?31.1¢100$3161%70Sharp
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?27¢3,257$88061%70Sharp
BUY YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?67¢3,257$2,18261%70Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?77¢78$6061%70Sharp
SELL YesWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?28.1¢1,206$33961%70Sharp
SELL NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?64¢14.7k$9,38061%70Sharp
SELL YesWill OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?8.3¢38.0k$3,13761%70Sharp
SELL YesWill Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?9¢200$1861%70Sharp
BUY NoSSI public model released by November 30, 2026?36.6¢200$7361%70Sharp
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?52.2¢4,311$2,25061%70Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?76¢450$34261%70Sharp