sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,183

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0x2c4…cb39
WhaleWR 60+1y+PoliticsCryptoOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$101kvol $6.45M
PnL 30d+$11.2kgains $240 · losses $1.35
PnL 7d−$1,352win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate62.8%adj 60.9% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$523kcash n/a
Positions88 / 202open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age3.1ylast trade 13d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$52.2kbelow peak −$171kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

29/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 62.8% · shrunk toward 50%52
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable77
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d55
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 88

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No442k86.5¢96.7¢$428k+$45.2k−$704
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No88.9k86¢96.7¢$86.0k+$9,511$0
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?No2,49191.3¢95.4¢$2,376+$102$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes12.4k29¢15.5¢$1,914−$1,667$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No33.2k11.2¢4.5¢$1,478−$2,237$0
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No1,63280¢90.5¢$1,477+$171$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No1,33392¢94¢$1,253+$27$0
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Yes4,84027¢4.5¢$218−$1,089$0
Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboYes3,01023¢3.5¢$105−$587$0
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes2,33211¢2.8¢$65−$191$0
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?Yes42914¢3.6¢$15−$45$0
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes24.9k2¢0.1¢$12−$479$0
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes20.7k1.1¢0.1¢$10−$217$0
Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?No1050¢98.1¢$9.81+$4.81$0
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes889k0.3¢0¢$0−$2,667$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No463k0.9¢0¢$0−$4,095$0
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes198k0.4¢0¢$0−$790$0
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes187k4¢0¢$0−$7,488$0
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No160k81¢0¢$0−$129k$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No155k12.4¢0¢$0−$19.3k$0
Fed rate hike in 2026?No142k14.2¢0¢$0−$20.2k−$247
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes111k0.3¢0¢$0−$333−$17
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?No77.8k6.1¢0¢$0−$4,777$0
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?No77.8k5¢0¢$0−$3,868$0
Was Milei hacked?Yes69.1k5.5¢0¢$0−$3,826$0
Khamenei seen in public by March 14?Yes65.9k0.3¢0¢$0−$197$0
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?No60.0k11.5¢0¢$0−$6,900$0
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?No57.5k12¢0¢$0−$6,906$0
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?No53.9k3.7¢0¢$0−$2,015$0
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?No53.6k16.5¢0¢$0−$8,818$0
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No43.4k38.9¢0¢$0−$16.9k$0
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?No33.4k8¢0¢$0−$2,669$0
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?No33.3k6¢0¢$0−$2,000$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?Yes32.2k5.4¢0¢$0−$1,732$0
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Yes31.6k1.6¢0¢$0−$495+$7,455
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?No28.6k74.7¢0¢$0−$21.4k$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?Yes25.4k10.7¢0¢$0−$2,710$0
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?No22.5k13¢0¢$0−$2,917$0
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?No22.5k23¢0¢$0−$5,155$0
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?No22.2k5¢0¢$0−$1,111$0
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?Yes19.5k12¢0¢$0−$2,335$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes18.8k25¢0¢$0−$4,694+$2,497
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?Yes17.7k5¢0¢$0−$883$0
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?Yes15.0k7.9¢0¢$0−$1,185$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No13.8k1.8¢0¢$0−$249$0
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?No13.4k3.1¢0¢$0−$414$0
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes12.9k12.9¢0¢$0−$1,665$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?No11.9k4.8¢0¢$0−$575$0
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Yes11.4k1.9¢0¢$0−$216$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No10.2k7¢0¢$0−$716$0
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?Yes10.0k32.1¢0¢$0−$3,219$0
Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?No9,9990.2¢0¢$0−$20$0
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No9,99910.1¢0¢$0−$1,010$0
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?No9,27755.1¢0¢$0−$5,113$0
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?No6,49228.9¢0¢$0−$1,876$0
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?No6,1614.3¢0¢$0−$264$0
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?No5,61315.6¢0¢$0−$874$0
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?No5,06941¢0¢$0−$2,081$0
Israel military response against Iran in October?No5,00022.2¢0¢$0−$1,110$0
Doge ETF approved in 2024?Yes5,0009¢0¢$0−$450$0
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?No5,00061.2¢0¢$0−$3,060$0
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes3,7564¢0¢$0−$149$0
Elon out of Trump administration before July?No3,6070.9¢0¢$0−$32$0
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Yes3,1511¢0¢$0−$32$0
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Yes3,00013¢0¢$0−$390$0
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?No3,00020¢0¢$0−$600$0
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No2,64645¢0¢$0−$1,191$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes2,24326¢0¢$0−$583+$8,202
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?Yes2,18337.7¢0¢$0−$823$0
Will Pump.fun launch a token by September 30? No1,9222.7¢0¢$0−$52$0
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?Yes1,57919¢0¢$0−$300$0
Ukraine hits Moscow by January 31?Yes1,0462.2¢0¢$0−$23$0
Will Trump and Putin hug on Friday?Yes99911.9¢0¢$0−$119$0
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes7145.6¢0¢$0−$40$0
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? No45023¢0¢$0−$103$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?Yes41234.5¢0¢$0−$142$0
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?No36335¢0¢$0−$127$0
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes2483¢0¢$0−$7.42$0
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes2483¢0¢$0−$7.42$0
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes2483¢0¢$0−$7.42$0
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes2483¢0¢$0−$7.42$0
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes2483¢0¢$0−$7.42$0
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes2483¢0¢$0−$7.42$0
Khamenei seen in public by March 7?Yes2400.2¢0¢$0−$0.48$0
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11?Yes1505¢0¢$0−$7.50$0
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes291.5¢0¢$0−$0.44$0
Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens1539.3¢0¢$0−$5.90$0
Nigeria vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to ScoreYes1044¢0¢$0−$4.40$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Russia invade another country in 2026?92¢539$49663%29
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?8¢9,460$75763%29
SELL NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?93¢4,444$4,13363%29
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?11¢6$0.6663%29
SELL NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?93¢3,333$3,10063%29
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?13¢1,533$19963%29
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?13¢3,446$44863%29
BUY NoWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?11.3¢9,452$1,06963%29
BUY NoWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?10.9¢11.6k$1,25763%29
BUY YesFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?11¢1,725$19063%29
BUY YesWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.3¢111k$33363%29
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?23¢515$11863%29
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?23¢14.8k$3,39763%29
SELL NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?91¢5,555$5,05563%29
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?23¢353$8163%29
BUY NoFed rate hike in 2026?29¢4,425$1,28363%29
BUY NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?88¢9,321$8,20263%29
BUY NoUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?7¢228$1663%29
BUY NoIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?15.9¢179$2863%29
BUY NoIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?45¢2,528$1,13863%29