Traders/Rank #11,714

0x2c7…a36d

WR 60+Politics

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$10vol $31.7k

PnL 30d−$17gains $0 · losses $0

PnL 7d−$6.67win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate67.9%adj 65.1% · 30d 0.0%

Open value$491cash n/a

Positions71 / 177open / all-time

Max drawdown−39.4%of equity peak

Account age10molast trade 1mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$22below peak −$309Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

45/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale14

Adjusted win rateraw 67.9% · shrunk toward 50%63

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable75

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity61

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? · Yesclosed+$259 US government shutdown Saturday? · Yesclosed+$137 Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$127 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? · Yesclosed+$123 SPLC found guilty in 2026? · Noopen+$96

Worst markets

Will the Brown University shooter not be arrested in 2025? · Noclosed−$207 FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? · Noclosed−$196 US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? · Yesopen−$119 Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files? · Yesclosed−$90 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yesopen−$77

Open positions · 71

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
SPLC found guilty in 2026?	No	204	45.3¢	92.2¢	$188	+$96	$0	3mo
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	480	6.4¢	14.5¢	$69	+$39	$0	25mo
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	400	23.5¢	11¢	$44	−$50	$0	3mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	220	9.1¢	17.8¢	$39	+$19	−$9.60	25mo
Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	164	14¢	21.5¢	$35	+$12	$0	20d 23h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2,040	2¢	1.4¢	$28	−$13	$0	25mo
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	Yes	60	39¢	38.5¢	$23	−$0.30	$0	20d 23h
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?	Yes	80	27¢	26.5¢	$21	−$0.40	$0	20d 23h
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	No	20	73¢	81.5¢	$16	+$1.70	$0	3mo
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	Yes	300	16.2¢	2.8¢	$8.25	−$40	$0	3mo
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,500	1.3¢	0.5¢	$8.25	−$11	$0	25mo
Will 2026 rank 6th or higher among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	80	59¢	6.5¢	$5.20	−$42	$0	4mo
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	200	2.8¢	2.5¢	$4.90	−$0.70	$0	25mo
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	700	11¢	0¢	$0	−$77	$0	ended
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?	Yes	699	17¢	0¢	$0	−$119	$0	ended
Will JD Vance clap between 20–29 times during the State of the Union?	Yes	610	5.4¢	0¢	$0	−$33	$0	ended
Will JD Vance clap fewer than 20 times during the State of the Union?	Yes	400	7¢	0¢	$0	−$28	$0	ended
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	298	7.1¢	0¢	$0	−$21	−$0.09	3mo
X banned in U.K. by March 31?	Yes	225	10¢	0¢	$0	−$22	$0	ended
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?	Yes	213	28.1¢	0¢	$0	−$60	$0	ended
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	Yes	200	6¢	0¢	$0	−$12	$0	ended
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?	Yes	200	17¢	0¢	$0	−$34	$0	ended
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	200	14¢	0¢	$0	−$28	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Pope" during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	175	30.9¢	0¢	$0	−$54	$0	ended
Trump EO easing access or decriminalizing weed by Friday?	No	161	4.2¢	0¢	$0	−$6.76	+$11	ended
Another Elon baby by June 30?	Yes	120	16¢	0¢	$0	−$19	$0	ended
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	120	8¢	0¢	$0	−$9.60	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	120	24¢	0¢	$0	−$29	$0	ended
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?	Yes	100	31¢	0¢	$0	−$31	−$29	ended
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?	Yes	100	15¢	0¢	$0	−$15	$0	ended
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	100	22.7¢	0¢	$0	−$23	$0	ended
Will JD Vance clap between 70–79 times during the State of the Union?	Yes	100	11¢	0¢	$0	−$11	$0	ended
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31?	Yes	100	6.1¢	0¢	$0	−$6.10	$0	ended
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes?	Yes	100	7.4¢	0¢	$0	−$7.40	$0	ended
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	LYON	100	5¢	0¢	$0	−$5.00	+$1.80	ended
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?	Yes	100	28¢	0¢	$0	−$28	$0	ended
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	100	16¢	0¢	$0	−$16	+$20	ended
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?	Yes	100	25¢	0¢	$0	−$25	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during Iowa speech?	Yes	80	29¢	0¢	$0	−$23	$0	ended
Will Trump say "War" 6+ times at Rocky Mount events on Friday?	Yes	75	12.7¢	0¢	$0	−$9.50	$0	ended
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	70	71.4¢	0¢	$0	−$50	$0	ended
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate primary by 12–15%?	Yes	70	1.4¢	0¢	$0	−$0.98	$0	ended
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Dana White" during Iowa speech?	No	60	9¢	0¢	$0	−$5.40	$0	ended
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	60	14.9¢	0¢	$0	−$8.94	$0	ended
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?	Yes	55	59.5¢	0¢	$0	−$33	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	44	35¢	0¢	$0	−$15	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Autopen" at Rocky Mount events on Friday?	No	40	25¢	0¢	$0	−$10	$0	ended
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate primary by 9–12%?	Yes	40	3¢	0¢	$0	−$1.20	$0	ended
Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?	Yes	40	64.9¢	0¢	$0	−$26	$0	ended
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	31	31¢	0¢	$0	−$9.61	−$0.27	ended
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?	Yes	30	10¢	0¢	$0	−$3.00	$0	ended
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1?	Yes	30	38¢	0¢	$0	−$11	$0	ended
Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?	Yes	29	47¢	0¢	$0	−$14	$0	ended
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	No	26	33.6¢	0¢	$0	−$8.80	$0	ended
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	25	7.8¢	0¢	$0	−$1.98	$0	3mo
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	20	11¢	0¢	$0	−$2.20	+$2.40	ended
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	20	17¢	0¢	$0	−$3.40	$0	ended
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Game Direction at the 2025 Game Awards?	No	20	43¢	0¢	$0	−$8.60	$0	ended
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner	Bilibili Gaming	20	63¢	0¢	$0	−$13	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Crime" during the Black History Month reception?	No	20	37¢	0¢	$0	−$7.40	$0	ended
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	No	20	35¢	0¢	$0	−$7.00	$0	ended
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	20	43¢	0¢	$0	−$8.60	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Iowa speech?	No	12	26¢	0¢	$0	−$3.08	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Tariff" 15+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?	Yes	10	59¢	0¢	$0	−$5.90	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?	Yes	10	35¢	0¢	$0	−$3.50	$0	ended
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Venezuela" during the announcement on December 19?	No	10	45¢	0¢	$0	−$4.50	$0	ended
Will Trump say "ISIS" at Rocky Mount events on Friday?	No	10	64¢	0¢	$0	−$6.40	$0	ended
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	10	19¢	0¢	$0	−$1.90	$0	3mo
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?	No	10	45¢	0¢	$0	−$4.50	$0	ended
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?	Yes	6	36¢	0¢	$0	−$2.16	$0	ended
Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?	No	2	37¢	0¢	$0	−$0.59	$0	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
1mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?	6.5¢	36	$2.36	68%	45
1mo ago	SELL Yes	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	0.3¢	50	$0.14	68%	45
5mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	9.1¢	220	$20	68%	45
5mo ago	BUY Yes	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	31¢	31	$9.61	68%	45
5mo ago	BUY Yes	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	86¢	40	$34	68%	45
5mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	35.7¢	100	$36	68%	45
5mo ago	BUY Yes	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	43¢	20	$8.60	68%	45
5mo ago	SELL No	FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	10¢	181	$18	68%	45
5mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Trump say "Pope" during TPUSA events on April 17?	30¢	170	$51	68%	45
5mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	81¢	5	$3.97	68%	45
6mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	14¢	17	$2.38	68%	45
6mo ago	SELL No	US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	99.4¢	40	$40	68%	45
6mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	70¢	219	$153	68%	45
6mo ago	SELL Yes	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	99.6¢	150	$149	68%	45
6mo ago	BUY Yes	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	78¢	77	$60	68%	45
6mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	74.9¢	107	$80	68%	45
6mo ago	SELL Yes	Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?	27¢	240	$65	68%	45
6mo ago	SELL Yes	Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?	29¢	30	$8.70	68%	45
6mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Karoline Leavitt be 35 or more minutes late to the next press briefing?	1.2¢	60	$0.72	68%	45
6mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Karoline Leavitt be between 20 and 25 minutes late to the next press briefing?	6¢	5	$0.30	68%	45