PnL all-time+$304kvol $51.5M
PnL 30d+$38.2kgains $34.4k · losses $798
PnL 7d+$11.2kwin rate 7d 83.3%
Win rate91.8%adj 90.2% · 30d 96.1%
Open value$986kcash n/a
Positions9 / 980open / all-time
Max drawdown−9.8%of equity peak
Account age2.4ylast trade 10h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$309kbelow peak −$1,203Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
86/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale78
Adjusted win rateraw 91.8% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity90
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Noopen+$151kWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$70.9kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$29.2kNetanyahu out by March 31? · Noclosed+$14.5kUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yesclosed+$14.2k
Worst markets
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$151kWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$24.9kWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$24.8kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$20.8kUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? · Yesclosed−$12.0k
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 500k | 50¢ | 80.2¢ | $401k | +$151k | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 240k | 85.6¢ | 84.5¢ | $203k | −$2,690 | +$7,329 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 138k | 99.3¢ | 99.6¢ | $137k | +$366 | +$1,782 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 110k | 93¢ | 94.5¢ | $104k | +$1,654 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 500k | 50¢ | 19.9¢ | $99.3k | −$151k | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 22.7k | 59.7¢ | 85.6¢ | $19.4k | +$5,872 | +$647 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 15.2k | 92.8¢ | 91¢ | $13.8k | −$274 | +$10.00 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 8,898 | 87.8¢ | 88.5¢ | $7,875 | +$65 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,000 | 47.7¢ | 51.7¢ | $1,035 | +$81 | $0 |
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