sharpside
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Traders/Rank #570

Trump2028

0x2e0…8070
SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsCryptoSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$359kvol $25.2M
PnL 30d−$29.9kgains $149k · losses $43.5k
PnL 7d+$4,019win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate88.7%adj 87.2% · 30d 88.2%
Open value$387kcash n/a
Positions70 / 567open / all-time
Max drawdown−23.7%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$400kbelow peak −$1,170Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

82/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale79
Adjusted win rateraw 88.7% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d90
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity76

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 70

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No170k60.1¢80.5¢$137k+$34.7k$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?No90.3k97.3¢97.1¢$87.7k−$163$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No72.1k94.4¢98¢$70.7k+$2,625$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No33.7k83.6¢85.5¢$28.8k+$649$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No30.0k92¢95.1¢$28.6k+$932$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No10.7k95¢94.5¢$10.1k−$52+$24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No11.3k86¢89.5¢$10.1k+$395$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?No7,16598¢98.9¢$7,086+$64$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No2,94098.1¢99.6¢$2,927+$43$0
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No2,20398.7¢99.5¢$2,191+$17$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No2,07191.7¢91.5¢$1,895−$4.78$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No5086¢94.5¢$47+$4.25$0
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?No1287.6¢95.6¢$11+$0.96$0
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No689¢98¢$5.77+$0.53+$599
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes179k24.9¢0¢$0−$44.5k−$2.78
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes62.9k24.9¢0¢$0−$15.7k−$28.6k
Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes58.7k4.5¢0¢$0−$2,631−$1.24
Will Casey DeSantis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes58.7k4.5¢0¢$0−$2,631−$1.24
Will Jimmy Patronis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes58.7k4.5¢0¢$0−$2,631−$1.24
Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes51.1k4.5¢0¢$0−$2,290−$335
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?Yes39.9k33.3¢0¢$0−$13.3k−$4,117
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes30.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$263−$0.03
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes20.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$175+$2,012
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes20.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$175+$1,783
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes11.1k31.1¢0¢$0−$3,456$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No6,03196.5¢0¢$0−$5,818+$110
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?Yes5,00012.2¢0¢$0−$612$0
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?Yes4,98412.2¢0¢$0−$610−$1.96
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?Yes4,37912.2¢0¢$0−$536−$75
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?Yes4,00912.2¢0¢$0−$491−$120
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?Yes3,77712.2¢0¢$0−$462−$148
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?Yes3,75312.3¢0¢$0−$460−$128
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No3,46496.2¢0¢$0−$3,334$0
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?No1,20393.6¢0¢$0−$1,126+$19
Will Austria win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes9962.6¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes9962.6¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes9962.6¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes9962.6¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes9962.6¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes9962.6¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes9962.6¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes9962.6¢0¢$0−$26$0
Ethereum flipped in 2026?No10051¢0¢$0−$51$0
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No2093.2¢0¢$0−$19+$662
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes52.9¢0¢$0−$0.15$0
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes52.9¢0¢$0−$0.15$0
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes52.9¢0¢$0−$0.15$0
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes52.9¢0¢$0−$0.15$0
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes52.9¢0¢$0−$0.15$0
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes52.9¢0¢$0−$0.15$0
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes52.9¢0¢$0−$0.15$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?97.7¢220$21589%82Sharp
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?99.9¢103$10389%82Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?99.5¢5,567$5,53989%82Sharp
BUY NoWill Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?98.7¢16$1589%82Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?96.2¢203$19589%82Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?99.7¢17.5k$17.5k89%82WhaleSharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?99.6¢1,891$1,88389%82Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?98.1¢755$74189%82Sharp
BUY NoWill Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?98.9¢1,801$1,78189%82Sharp
BUY NoWill Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?99.2¢1,690$1,67689%82Sharp
BUY NoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?99.5¢100$10089%82Sharp
BUY NoUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?99.7¢20$2089%82Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?99.5¢3,000$2,98589%82Sharp
SELL NoUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?99.7¢25$2589%82Sharp
BUY NoIran leadership change by September 30?99.3¢4,620$4,58889%82Sharp
BUY NoIran leadership change by September 30?98.8¢16.1k$15.9k89%82WhaleSharp
BUY NoUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?95¢3,229$3,06889%82Sharp
BUY NoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?99.5¢331$33089%82Sharp
BUY NoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?99.3¢4,306$4,27489%82Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?99.6¢3,378$3,36489%82Sharp