sharpside
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Traders/Rank #6,274

GUINESS123

0x2f2…0d8f
WR 70+WR 60+Sport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$59.5kvol $6.01M
PnL 30d+$1,665gains $15.6k · losses $9,654
PnL 7d+$3,449win rate 7d 58.0%
Win rate70.7%adj 69.9% · 30d 60.4%
Open value$35.1kcash n/a
Positions2,000 / 23,222open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 49m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$34.2kbelow peak −$47.6kOct 11

SharpScore inputs

39/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 70.7% · shrunk toward 50%75
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No6,03330¢31.5¢$1,900+$88$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes4,99539.4¢35.5¢$1,773−$193$0
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?No1,75888.6¢95.7¢$1,682+$124$0
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No1,81163.9¢86.5¢$1,567+$409$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No3,32434.4¢41.5¢$1,379+$237$0
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes1,28852.1¢97.5¢$1,256+$585+$2.57
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes3,01042.3¢36.5¢$1,099−$174$0
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No1,52072.8¢72¢$1,094−$13$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes1,71737.7¢51.3¢$881+$234−$50
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No91565.5¢73¢$668+$69$0
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?No1,10145.5¢56.5¢$622+$121$0
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Yes1,30046.6¢47.5¢$618+$12$0
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Yes4,82012.5¢12.5¢$603+$0.13$0
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No61655.2¢95.1¢$586+$246$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes1,70028.6¢32.5¢$553+$67$0
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes94749¢55¢$521+$57$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No56042.2¢91.5¢$512+$276$0
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?No60062.2¢76.5¢$459+$86+$0.28
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes84527.3¢47.5¢$401+$171$0
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes2,14321¢18.5¢$396−$54$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?Yes45080¢86¢$387+$27$0
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat?No40444.8¢93.5¢$378+$197−$4.26
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No64282.3¢51.5¢$331−$198$0
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?Yes37971.9¢80.5¢$305+$33$0
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes67331.1¢41.5¢$279+$70−$1.80
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?Yes89617¢28.5¢$255+$103$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes3,0009¢8.5¢$255−$15$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?No30074.7¢82.5¢$248+$24$0
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?No24754.7¢97.3¢$240+$105$0
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?Yes4,6475.3¢4.8¢$223−$24$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes90112.9¢24.5¢$221+$104$0
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?Yes31070¢69.5¢$215−$1.55$0
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes89316¢22.5¢$201+$58+$5.62
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?No30057¢63.5¢$191+$20$0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?No25374.7¢73¢$185−$4.40$0
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?No38927.7¢46.5¢$181+$73$0
Will Lil Baby have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?No20163.5¢86.7¢$174+$47$0
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Yes43537.3¢39.5¢$172+$9.64$0
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?No21455¢78.5¢$168+$50$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?No51635.8¢32.5¢$168−$17$0
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?No30842.2¢51.5¢$159+$29$0
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?No20075.5¢77.5¢$155+$4.00$0
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel?No32135.6¢46.5¢$149+$35$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No3,02030.4¢4.5¢$134−$783$0
Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?Yes29932.6¢33.5¢$100+$2.68$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Yes1,56510.1¢6.4¢$100−$58$0
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No42019.9¢23.3¢$98+$14+$33
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?Yes21934.5¢38.5¢$84+$8.66$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No22043¢36.5¢$80−$14$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?No40021¢19.5¢$78−$6.00$0
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes3,0002.8¢2.6¢$77−$7.50$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?Yes20530.3¢36.5¢$75+$13$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?No35922.6¢20.5¢$74−$7.56$0
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes1,7296.2¢4.2¢$72−$35$0
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes33014.3¢19.5¢$64+$17$0
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?No50016¢12¢$60−$20$0
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?Yes5367.9¢10.5¢$56+$14+$34
Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?Yes41515.7¢12.5¢$52−$13$0
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?Yes67312.7¢7¢$47−$38−$0.05
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?Yes22022.8¢20.5¢$45−$5.10$0
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No43659.8¢9.7¢$42−$219$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat?No40011.3¢10.5¢$42−$3.00$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?Yes22312.8¢18.5¢$41+$13$0
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes8453.7¢4.7¢$39+$7.87$0
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?Yes39825.9¢8.5¢$34−$69+$13
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?No5196.6¢5.9¢$30−$3.92$0
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes2,70714¢0.8¢$22−$357$0
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?No28113.7¢6.5¢$18−$20+$12
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes2126.8¢7.5¢$16+$1.53$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?No3002.9¢4¢$12+$3.11$0
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat?No53722.7¢1.8¢$9.67−$112+$37
Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat?Yes49119.1¢1.8¢$8.59−$85+$2.91
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?No2354.7¢3.5¢$8.22−$2.92+$13
Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?No2774.5¢1.7¢$4.71−$7.68$0
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes83524¢0.5¢$4.59−$195$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-35 House seat?No2484.6¢1.2¢$2.98−$8.31$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes8,50020.1¢0¢$0−$1,707−$68
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs BangladeshBangladesh7,7595.3¢0¢$0−$408−$12
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total CornersOver7,57457¢0¢$0−$4,317−$56
Thunder vs. SpursSpurs6,9443.6¢0¢$0−$247−$7.04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No6,8000.7¢0¢$0−$48−$2.36
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5Over6,7982.9¢0¢$0−$195−$9.50
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs IndiaIndia6,24695.3¢0¢$0−$5,955−$8.01
Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Angels6,0481¢0¢$0−$60−$1.80
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?No5,50959.9¢0¢$0−$3,298−$66
ITF Sao Paulo: Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira vs Jose PereiraHenrique Ortenblad Nogueira5,41625.2¢0¢$0−$1,365−$43
ITF Bali: Ethan David Zapp vs Hikaru ShiraishiEthan David Zapp4,9693¢0¢$0−$151−$7.13
Mexico to win the second half?Yes4,92539¢0¢$0−$1,922−$35
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5Over4,8161.2¢0¢$0−$60−$1.77
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total CornersOver4,74244¢0¢$0−$2,086−$34
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsNo4,73042.2¢0¢$0−$1,998−$52
Argentina to win the second half?Yes4,56871¢0¢$0−$3,244−$28
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal?Yes4,4964¢0¢$0−$180−$5.18
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes4,27012¢0¢$0−$515−$14
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco?Yes4,2631.3¢0¢$0−$55−$1.64
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5Over4,17138.4¢0¢$0−$1,600−$25
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes4,14011¢0¢$0−$455+$2.16
Jiujiang: Hayu Kinoshita vs En-Shuo LiangHayu Kinoshita4,02458.9¢0¢$0−$2,372−$29
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 England?Yes4,0219¢0¢$0−$363−$9.67
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total CornersUnder3,91856¢0¢$0−$2,194−$29

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?6¢83$4.9871%39
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?23¢17$3.9171%39
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?23¢78$1871%39
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?23¢70$1671%39
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?23¢30$6.9071%39
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?3¢65$1.9571%39
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party win the CA-31 House seat?5.7¢100$5.7071%39
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the TX-11 House seat?3.1¢71$2.2071%39
BUY YesWill the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?45¢102$4671%39
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?37¢100$3771%39
BUY YesWill Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?21¢20$4.2071%39
BUY YesWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?45¢30$1471%39
BUY YesWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?47¢112$5371%39
BUY YesWill Ipswich Town FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?11¢58$6.3871%39
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?32¢5$1.6071%39
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the IL-12 House seat?3.8¢49$1.8671%39
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the IL-12 House seat?3.8¢51$1.9471%39
SELL NoWill the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?55¢10$5.5071%39
BUY YesWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?49.8¢8$3.9871%39
BUY YesWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?49.8¢10$4.9871%39