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Traders/Rank #2,269

Orion96

0x306…f8ef
SharpPnL 10k+WR 60+1y+PoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$36.6kvol $1.68M
PnL 30d+$4,372gains $879 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$2,030win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate69.9%adj 69.2% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$38.5kcash n/a
Positions74 / 664open / all-time
Max drawdown−30.1%of equity peak
Account age4.9ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$35.4kbelow peak −$585Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65
Adjusted win rateraw 69.9% · shrunk toward 50%73
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable94
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity70

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 74

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes8,09463.7¢95.5¢$7,730+$2,571+$499
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?No14.5k61.8¢39.5¢$5,711−$3,230$0
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?No7,04271¢71.5¢$5,035+$35$0
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Yes12.6k43.4¢37.5¢$4,737−$742$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes4,39691¢90.5¢$3,978−$22−$72
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No2,61184.4¢96.2¢$2,510+$306−$1.83
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No1,50083.7¢94.9¢$1,423+$168+$199
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes1,22082¢83.5¢$1,018+$18$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No1,00056¢62¢$620+$60$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes80662¢61.5¢$496−$4.03$0
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes64178¢76.5¢$490−$9.61$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes1,62540¢28.5¢$463−$187−$80
5kt meteor strike in 2026?No54847.9¢82.5¢$452+$189+$246
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Yes50074¢87.5¢$438+$68$0
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes50068¢82.5¢$412+$72$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No42371¢89¢$376+$76$0
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?Yes61929.3¢52¢$322+$140$0
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes50046.8¢60.5¢$302+$68$0
Clavicular convicted of rape?No31885¢85.5¢$272+$1.59$0
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?No23562.1¢97.9¢$230+$84$0
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes62728.5¢35.5¢$223+$44$0
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?Yes40648.1¢53.5¢$217+$22$0
US military draft authorized in 2026?No22292¢96.5¢$214+$9.98$0
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?Yes50529.7¢39.5¢$199+$49$0
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Yes1,42970¢12¢$171−$829$0
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No15071¢99.3¢$149+$42$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?Yes30055¢34¢$102−$63$0
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No7363¢96.3¢$70+$24$0
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?Yes5355.3¢12.5¢$67+$39+$46
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?No5876¢95¢$55+$11+$50
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?No5560¢24.7¢$14−$19−$24
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes40022¢3.1¢$12−$76$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes4522¢12.5¢$5.68−$4.32$0
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?Yes1,8705.8¢0.2¢$2.80−$105$0
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes338¢52¢$1.37+$0.37$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No4,34869¢0¢$0−$3,000$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No2,89969¢0¢$0−$2,000$0
Will Trump say "Mr. Speaker" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes2,61488.3¢0¢$0−$2,309$0
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?No1,82621.6¢0¢$0−$395−$2.05
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Yes1,65027.7¢0¢$0−$457+$9.45
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes1,61318.6¢0¢$0−$300$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No1,47168¢0¢$0−$1,000$0
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes1,31638¢0¢$0−$500$0
Will Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address?No1,00680.9¢0¢$0−$814$0
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No1,00080¢0¢$0−$800$0
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No99558.2¢0¢$0−$579−$14
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes96831¢0¢$0−$300−$8.28
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes9033¢0¢$0−$27$0
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Yes88832.9¢0¢$0−$292$0
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?Yes8522.3¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during the 2026 State of the Union address?No81713.3¢0¢$0−$109$0
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?No7003.1¢0¢$0−$22$0
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes59072.9¢0¢$0−$430$0
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?Yes5001¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?Yes50060¢0¢$0−$300$0
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes5005¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?No42371¢0¢$0−$300$0
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?Leadership Change41248.5¢0¢$0−$200$0
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?Yes38832.5¢0¢$0−$126$0
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?No31164.4¢0¢$0−$200$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?No2593¢0¢$0−$7.85−$0.19
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?Yes2561¢0¢$0−$2.56$0
Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?No20636.4¢0¢$0−$75$0
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes20010¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?Yes20015¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes19735.6¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No17511.4¢0¢$0−$20−$0.71
Will Trump say "Obama" during the State of the Union address?No16759.9¢0¢$0−$100$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No15763.7¢0¢$0−$100$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes14370¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?Yes1421.4¢0¢$0−$2.00$0
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?Yes1110.9¢0¢$0−$1.00$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?Yes5238.5¢0¢$0−$20−$0.49
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?Yes502¢0¢$0−$1.00$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?91¢4,396$4,00070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?29.7¢505$15070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?51¢196$10070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?40¢1,750$70070%73Sharp
BUY YesAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?78¢641$50070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?82¢1,220$1,00070%73Sharp
BUY NoAny of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?71¢7,042$5,00070%73Sharp
BUY NoClavicular convicted of rape?85¢318$27070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?62¢806$50070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?46.3¢80$3770%73Sharp
BUY YesWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?28¢4,283$1,20070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?38.5¢52$2070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?84¢1,190$1,00070%73Sharp
BUY NoWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?97¢20.6k$20.0k70%73WhaleSharp
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?88¢3,409$3,00070%73Sharp
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?97.9¢8,175$8,00070%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?86¢931$80170%73Sharp
BUY YesWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?46.8¢500$23470%73Sharp
SELL NoWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?41.3¢500$20770%73Sharp
BUY NoWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?47.2¢500$23670%73Sharp