sharpside
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bonalddrunk

0x308…92f6
1y+PoliticsSportCultureOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$16.8kvol $892k
PnL 30d+$1,959gains $5,422 · losses $14.3k
PnL 7d+$2,474win rate 7d 24.3%
Win rate51.8%adj 51.8% · 30d 50.8%
Open value$30.2kcash n/a
Positions159 / 992open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 15m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$11.5kbelow peak −$11.5kOct 11

SharpScore inputs

32/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 51.8% · shrunk toward 50%29
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2026 AFC West?No2,20889.5¢90.5¢$1,997+$21−$21
Will Kanye West perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?No1,70275¢89.4¢$1,521+$245+$225
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?No2,82933.7¢46.5¢$1,316+$361$0
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?No1,12191.8¢97.8¢$1,095+$67$0
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?No1,20879.2¢83.5¢$1,009+$51$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No1,87448.8¢51.6¢$966+$52+$18
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?No1,00590.2¢91.4¢$919+$12$0
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No1,76530.9¢45.3¢$799+$253$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-04 House election by 20%-25%?No64274¢91.5¢$587+$112$0
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?Yes99544.3¢49.5¢$493+$51$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes2,73653.1¢16.5¢$451−$1,002$0
Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?No74634.2¢58.5¢$437+$181$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes62469.8¢69.1¢$431−$4.44−$3.79
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?Yes43589.1¢98.1¢$427+$39$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?No43589.5¢96.6¢$420+$31$0
Will James Cook III finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?No53259.8¢78¢$415+$97+$20
Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes42892.1¢95.9¢$410+$16$0
Will Zeus win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?No42991.1¢94.9¢$407+$16$0
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?Yes86036¢45.5¢$391+$82+$62
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 25%-30%?No50277.1¢77.6¢$390+$2.69$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No96337.7¢39.5¢$380+$18$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election by 75%-80%?No40584.8¢92.2¢$373+$30$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election by 70%-75%?No55972.1¢66¢$369−$34$0
Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?No88530.1¢40.5¢$359+$92+$42
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 25%-30%?No37491.9¢95¢$355+$12$0
Will Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?Yes8419.9¢40.8¢$343+$260+$75
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?No31894.6¢98.9¢$314+$13+$7.46
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?No35484.2¢85.5¢$303+$4.67$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No33278¢90.5¢$300+$41$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election by 12% or more?No28990¢99.8¢$288+$28$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 12% or more?No28989.4¢93.5¢$271+$12$0
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31?Yes47931.1¢55.5¢$266+$117+$114
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 20%-25%?No33076.1¢79.5¢$263+$11$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?No31274.4¢82.5¢$257+$25$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No28676.7¢86.5¢$248+$28−$339
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 30%-35%?No24885.4¢95.7¢$237+$26$0
Will Javonte Williams finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?No30359.2¢77¢$233+$54$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 15%-18%?No24583.8¢94.9¢$233+$27$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 30%-35%?No25584.7¢88.9¢$227+$11$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?No31166.4¢71.5¢$222+$16$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes55639¢39.5¢$220+$2.78$0
Will Morgan Wallen perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?No24582¢89.5¢$219+$18$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-05 House election by 20%-25%?No26079.1¢82¢$213+$7.60$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.95% in October?No27890¢75¢$208−$42$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 25%-30%?No25881.2¢80.5¢$208−$2.00$0
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?Yes46128¢43.5¢$201+$71$0
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?No22872.9¢88¢$200+$34$0
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?No28055¢69.5¢$195+$41$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 50%-55%?No20580.5¢93.9¢$192+$27$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 30%-35%?No20092.3¢94.6¢$189+$4.60$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 35% or more?No20092.3¢94.5¢$189+$4.26−$0.18
Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?No19880.9¢89¢$176+$16+$13
Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by October 31?No20087.5¢87¢$174−$1.07$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 55% or more?No20079¢81.5¢$163+$5.00$0
Will the Democrats win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes17790.3¢91.5¢$162+$2.10−$0.48
Will Chuba Hubbard finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?No20059.5¢80.5¢$161+$42$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-02 House election by 30%-35%?No18181.7¢88.4¢$160+$12$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 35%-40%?No20070¢79.5¢$159+$19$0
Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?Yes22960.7¢68¢$156+$17+$66
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-06 House election by 5%-10%?No20069.3¢73.8¢$148+$8.90$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 55%-60%?No18369.6¢78.1¢$143+$15$0
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No20069.1¢70.5¢$141+$2.74$0
Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes14596¢97¢$140+$1.45$0
Will BLACKPINK headline Coachella 2027?No14080¢98.9¢$138+$26$0
Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?Yes22162¢60.5¢$134−$3.31$0
Love Wins: 2026 EditionNo20058¢64.5¢$129+$13$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?No1,2848.3¢10¢$128+$21−$0.45
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?No28739.2¢44.5¢$128+$15$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 30%-35%?No15458.7¢81¢$125+$34$0
Will Joey Slye be the highest-scoring K of the 2026-27 NFL season?No12584.6¢98.3¢$123+$17$0
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No45423.1¢26¢$118+$13$0
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.75% in October?No17267¢66¢$114−$1.72$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 25%-30%?No11790.4¢95.3¢$112+$5.73$0
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?No21879.6¢50.5¢$110−$64$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-02 House election by 20%-25%?No14072¢78.5¢$110+$9.10$0
Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?Yes25526.3¢42.5¢$108+$41$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-01 House election by 45%-50%?No12086.1¢90.1¢$108+$4.86$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?No14081.8¢77¢$108−$6.70$0
Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes11288.7¢94¢$105+$5.89$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-01 House election by 21% or more?No12183.3¢85.5¢$103+$2.60$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 25%-30%?No11084¢91¢$100+$7.70$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-09 House election by 6% or more?No11084.4¢89.6¢$99+$5.76$0
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No10088.6¢97.6¢$98+$8.95$0
Will the Democrats win Kent County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes11484.3¢83.5¢$95−$0.94−$2.70
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 18% or more?Yes41625.3¢22.5¢$94−$12$0
Will Mike Gesicki be the highest-scoring TE of the 2026-27 NFL season?No9690¢97.5¢$93+$7.19+$3.72
Will CeeDee Lamb be the highest-scoring WR of the 2026-27 NFL season?No10050¢90.5¢$91+$41$0
Will Derrick Henry finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?No17834.6¢49¢$87+$26+$15
Will Benfica win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?Yes40023.6¢21.5¢$86−$8.41+$0.58
Will Drake release a new album by December 31?Yes48719.7¢17.5¢$85−$11$0
Will Spain win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?Yes23236.8¢35.5¢$82−$2.98$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election by 30% or more?No20540¢39.5¢$81−$1.05$0
Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?Yes19322.6¢41¢$79+$35$0
Will the Democrat win the North Carolina Supreme Court general election?No40021¢19.5¢$78−$6.00$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 6% or more?No9081¢86.3¢$77+$4.72$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election by 12% or more?No8289.3¢87¢$71−$1.89$0
Will the Democrats win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes13642¢52¢$71+$14+$25
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?No20062¢35¢$70−$54$0
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?Yes11862.7¢58.5¢$69−$5.01−$0.28
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-06 House election by 45%-50%?No9080.8¢74.4¢$67−$5.78$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-06 House election by 5%-10%?69.3¢200$13952%32
SELL NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?16¢56$8.9652%32
SELL NoWill Dua Lipa perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?93.3¢24$2352%32
SELL NoWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?51.5¢56$2952%32
SELL NoWill Dua Lipa perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?93.5¢78$7352%32
SELL NoWill Dua Lipa perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?93.8¢31$2952%32
BUY YesAnother GTA VI trailer released by October 31?46¢336$15552%32
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-01 House election by 45%-50%?86.1¢120$10352%32
SELL YesWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?66.8¢737$49252%32
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 55% or more?79¢200$15852%32
SELL NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?14¢568$8052%32
BUY YesWill Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?11.5¢555$6452%32
SELL NoWill Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?45.1¢201$9152%32
SELL NoWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?51.5¢63$3252%32
BUY NoWill Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?36¢289$10452%32
BUY YesWill Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?62¢221$13752%32
SELL NoWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?51.5¢227$11752%32
SELL YesKimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31?69¢316$21852%32
SELL NoWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?51.5¢58$3052%32
BUY NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?92.6¢200$18552%32