PnL all-time+$24vol $1.59M
PnL 30d+$102gains $82 · losses $754
PnL 7d+$61win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate44.2%adj 44.5% · 30d 9.1%
Open value$9,441cash n/a
Positions10 / 426open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 1mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$711below peak −$5,270Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
30/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale20
Adjusted win rateraw 44.2% · shrunk toward 50%11
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable88
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · Yesclosed+$3,341Iran strike on US military by February 28? · Yesclosed+$1,595Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? · Yesclosed+$1,094US forces enter Iran by December 31? · Yesclosed+$1,072US forces enter Iran by March 7? · Yesclosed+$1,053
Worst markets
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1? · Noclosed−$1,227US forces enter Iran by April 30? · Noclosed−$1,200Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026? · Yesclosed−$837Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? · Yesclosed−$749Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026? · Yesclosed−$701
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 2,077 | 91.4¢ | 96.9¢ | $2,011 | +$113 | −$34 | |
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | No | 1,963 | 86¢ | 96.8¢ | $1,899 | +$210 | $0 | |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | No | 1,676 | 92.3¢ | 97.8¢ | $1,639 | +$92 | −$528 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | 1,400 | 87¢ | 95.5¢ | $1,337 | +$119 | −$149 | |
| Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? | No | 1,305 | 90.2¢ | 95.8¢ | $1,250 | +$73 | $0 | |
| Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? | No | 807 | 84.8¢ | 96.2¢ | $775 | +$92 | $0 | |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? | No | 280 | 93¢ | 97.7¢ | $273 | +$13 | $0 | |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | 618 | 39.5¢ | 21¢ | $130 | −$114 | +$37 | |
| New COVID variant of concern before 2027? | No | 136 | 77.2¢ | 87¢ | $118 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 585 | 3¢ | 1.4¢ | $8.20 | −$9.59 | +$59 |
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