PnL all-time+$237vol $77.1k
PnL 30d+$236gains $921 · losses $685
PnL 7d+$236win rate 7d 43.5%
Win rate43.5%adj 46.5% · 30d 43.5%
Open value$473cash n/a
Positions9 / 33open / all-time
Max drawdown−39.9%of equity peak
Account age7dlast trade 1h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$244below peak −$2.11Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
33/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale34
Adjusted win rateraw 43.5% · shrunk toward 50%16
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable51
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity60
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? · Yesclosed+$551Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? · Yesclosed+$131Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$113Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? · Yesclosed+$59Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? · Yesopen+$26
Worst markets
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? · Yesclosed−$324Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$100WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on October 5? · Yesclosed−$94Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? · Yesclosed−$75Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? · Yesopen−$27
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 621 | 17.1¢ | 20¢ | $124 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31? | Yes | 832 | 14.2¢ | 11.5¢ | $96 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | Yes | 265 | 21.9¢ | 31.5¢ | $83 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | Yes | 211 | 24¢ | 36.5¢ | $77 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | Yes | 1,206 | 4¢ | 3.7¢ | $45 | −$3.92 | $0 | |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | Yes | 355 | 7.7¢ | 7.9¢ | $28 | +$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | Yes | 647 | 6.1¢ | 2¢ | $13 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | Yes | 113 | 2¢ | 4.4¢ | $4.92 | +$2.66 | $0 | |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | Yes | 80 | 5¢ | 5¢ | $4.01 | $0 | $0 |
Recent trades
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