sharpside
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preciseploys

0x349…7f3b
PoliticsOtherCryptoWeatherCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$2,079vol $78.5k
PnL 30d−$181gains $96 · losses $244
PnL 7d−$184win rate 7d 56.0%
Win rate32.0%adj 33.1% · 30d 53.0%
Open value$234cash n/a
Positions72 / 373open / all-time
Max drawdown−94.3%of equity peak
Account age52dlast trade 18h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$2,076below peak −$1,957Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

29/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 32.0% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable86
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity6

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 20? · Noclosed+$95Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10? · Noclosed+$25Will Emerson Nolasco Delgado win the next Huancayo mayoral elections? · Yesopen+$24Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yesclosed+$23Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? · Noclosed+$22

Worst markets

Will Nassourdine Imamov fight Sean Strickland next? · Noclosed−$196Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 20? · Yesclosed−$195Will Paddy Pimblett fight Charles Oliveira next? · Yesclosed−$109Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$91Will Khathutshelo Rasilingwane be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni? · Yesclosed−$90

Open positions · 72

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Emerson Nolasco Delgado win the next Huancayo mayoral elections?Yes5338¢82.7¢$44+$24$0
Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?No6332¢28.5¢$18−$2.19$0
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 86 to 95 km/h in October?No2068¢70.5¢$14+$0.50$0
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?No2070¢64.5¢$13−$1.10$0
Will AlloX FDV be above $80M one day after launch?No2061¢63.5¢$13+$0.50$0
Will AlloX launch a token by November 30, 2026?No2051¢56¢$11+$1.00$0
Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?Yes4341¢26¢$11−$6.44+$0.21
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11?Yes1865¢59.5¢$11−$0.99+$0.30
Will Marek Hattas win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election?No2067¢49.5¢$9.90−$3.50$0
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?No1867¢55¢$9.90−$2.16$0
Will Trump post "Sanction" on Truth Social this week?Yes2543¢36¢$9.00−$1.75$0
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?No2080¢39¢$7.80−$8.20$0
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?Yes2031¢38.5¢$7.70+$1.50$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 10?No2068¢32.5¢$6.50−$7.10$0
Will Vamos win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?Yes2032¢25.5¢$5.10−$1.30$0
Canza FDV above $50M one day after launch?No2054¢21.5¢$4.30−$6.50$0
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 85 km/h or below in October?Yes2044¢20.5¢$4.10−$4.70$0
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes2034¢17¢$3.40−$3.40$0
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?Yes1037¢29.5¢$2.95−$0.75$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 14, 2026?Yes2027.5¢14.7¢$2.94−$2.56$0
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes448¢70.5¢$2.62+$0.84−$39
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?Yes2013.9¢13.1¢$2.62−$0.16$0
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 14, 2026?Yes2017¢12.6¢$2.51−$0.89$0
Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5?Yes1067¢18.5¢$1.91−$5.00$0
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round by 15%-20%?Yes940¢20¢$1.80−$1.80$0
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?No442¢42.5¢$1.70+$0.02−$6.98
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 10?No2027¢7.5¢$1.50−$3.90$0
Will White House post 200+ posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?No2028¢6.7¢$1.34−$4.26$0
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.4 on October 9, 2026?Yes2045¢6.5¢$1.30−$7.70$0
Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes2014¢5.5¢$1.10−$1.70$0
Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of October 5?Yes1036¢10.5¢$1.07−$2.58$0
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?No191¢85.5¢$1.02−$0.07$0
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Yes160¢83.5¢$0.97+$0.27$0
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?No145¢58¢$0.79+$0.18$0
Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?Yes142¢63.5¢$0.71+$0.24+$2.09
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes326¢19.5¢$0.49−$0.16−$26
Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Yes2018¢2¢$0.39−$3.21$0
Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?No238¢20¢$0.32−$0.29$0
Will "East of Eden" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes846¢4¢$0.32−$3.36$0
Will "Wonka's The Golden Ticket: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes2014.2¢1.5¢$0.30−$2.54$0
Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes2022¢1.5¢$0.30−$4.10$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?Yes2333¢1.2¢$0.27−$7.41$0
Will downtown LA's 100°F streak last exactly four days?Yes1069.8¢2.3¢$0.23−$6.75+$0.43
Will "UNABOMBER" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Yes2027.1¢1.1¢$0.22−$5.20$0
Will "UNABOMBER" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Yes2014.1¢1.1¢$0.21−$2.61$0
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?No133.1¢16.5¢$0.19−$0.19−$3.75
Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Yes2044¢0.9¢$0.18−$8.62$0
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 9, 2026?Yes2048¢0.9¢$0.18−$9.42$0
Will xAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Yes1011.2¢1.3¢$0.13−$0.99$0
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No218.1¢3.8¢$0.08−$0.31−$0.67
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on October 9?No2064¢0.1¢$0.02−$13$0
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 175 million views on week 1?Yes2046¢0.1¢$0.01−$9.19$0
Will MrBeast's next video get between 183 and 191 million views on week 1?Yes2022¢0.1¢$0.01−$4.39$0
Will MrBeast's next video get between 199 and 207 million views on week 1?Yes647¢0.1¢$0−$2.66$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETDown945¢0¢$0−$4.68−$0.31
Will Trump say "Dictionary" this week?No5020¢0¢$0−$10$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ETUp4710¢0¢$0−$4.70−$0.30
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ETUp2123¢0¢$0−$4.74−$0.26
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on October 9?Yes209¢0¢$0−$1.80$0
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 9?No2066¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will MrBeast's next video get between 174 and 176 million views on day 5?Yes2033¢0¢$0−$6.60$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?Yes2027¢0¢$0−$5.40$0
GitHub.com critical incident by October 15, 2026?No2045¢0¢$0−$9.00$0
ChatGPT Outage by October 31, 2026?No2020¢0¢$0−$4.00$0
Will MrBeast's next video get between 172 and 174 million views on day 5?Yes2029¢0¢$0−$5.80$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?Yes2030¢0¢$0−$6.00$0
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 9?No961¢0¢$0−$5.47$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ETUp955¢0¢$0−$4.84−$0.15
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28?Yes520¢0¢$0−$1.00+$0.07
Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between October 1 and October 10, 2026?No48.1¢0¢$0−$0.34+$0.30
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 9?No362¢0¢$0−$1.63$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?No235.2¢0¢$0−$0.82+$17

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.2¢294$29232%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.2¢110$10932%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.5¢60$6032%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99¢407$40332%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on October 10?98.8¢21$2132%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.5¢82$8232%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.1¢210$20832%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.3¢221$21932%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.1¢477$47332%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.2¢10$9.9732%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?99.1¢160$15932%29
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on October 10?95.2¢21$2032%29
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?97.8¢2,031$1,98632%29
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET10¢47$4.7032%29
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET23¢21$4.7432%29
BUY DownBitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET5¢94$4.6832%29
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET55¢9$4.8432%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 9?79¢7$5.7732%29
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 9?79¢13$1032%29
SELL NoSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11?56¢20$1132%29