| Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026? | Yes | 237 | 77.4¢ | 89.5¢ | $212 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | No | 217 | 77¢ | 89.5¢ | $194 | +$27 | −$5.15 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 250 | 41.4¢ | 70.5¢ | $176 | +$73 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 575T and 625T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | No | 181 | 81.2¢ | 94.8¢ | $171 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process less than 575T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | No | 117 | 87.5¢ | 98.4¢ | $115 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 100 | 93.4¢ | 97.8¢ | $98 | +$4.39 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? | No | 100 | 97.9¢ | 97.1¢ | $97 | −$0.80 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | Yes | 208 | 28.3¢ | 46.5¢ | $97 | +$38 | $0 | |
| Will MiniMax have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? | No | 78 | 97.9¢ | 99.5¢ | $77 | +$1.20 | $0 | |
| Will Qwen have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? | No | 75 | 97.8¢ | 99.8¢ | $75 | +$1.47 | $0 | |
| Will Tencent have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? | No | 78 | 97.9¢ | 95.5¢ | $74 | −$1.86 | $0 | |
| Will Qwen have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? | No | 73 | 97.7¢ | 99.8¢ | $73 | +$1.54 | $0 | |
| Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 19, 2026? | No | 72 | 97¢ | 99.8¢ | $72 | +$2.02 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process at least 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | Yes | 198 | 20.2¢ | 31.5¢ | $62 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 46 | 93¢ | 99.6¢ | $46 | +$3.05 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 45 | 78.4¢ | 96.7¢ | $44 | +$8.21 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 40 | 87.2¢ | 65.9¢ | $26 | −$8.55 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 20 | 89.2¢ | 98.1¢ | $20 | +$1.77 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | No | 20 | 93.5¢ | 96.1¢ | $19 | +$0.51 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 20 | 92.4¢ | 94.3¢ | $19 | +$0.37 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 61¢ | 94¢ | $19 | +$6.60 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 90¢ | 93.8¢ | $19 | +$0.76 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 91¢ | 91.5¢ | $18 | +$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 69¢ | 89.5¢ | $18 | +$4.10 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 20 | 94.6¢ | 81.3¢ | $16 | −$2.66 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 20 | 76¢ | 71.5¢ | $14 | −$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? | Yes | 20 | 26¢ | 59¢ | $12 | +$6.60 | $0 | |
| Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026? | No | 11 | 97¢ | 99.1¢ | $11 | +$0.22 | $0 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 15.3¢ | 9.5¢ | $9.50 | −$5.79 | +$1.44 | |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? | Yes | 20 | 26¢ | 37¢ | $7.40 | +$2.20 | $0 | |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | No | 20 | 35¢ | 36¢ | $7.20 | +$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 20 | 18¢ | 21.5¢ | $4.30 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? | Yes | 5 | 27¢ | 41¢ | $2.05 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 20 | 0.9¢ | 7.2¢ | $1.44 | +$1.26 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 20 | 11¢ | 7¢ | $1.40 | −$0.80 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 20 | 4.8¢ | 0.7¢ | $0.13 | −$0.83 | −$0.68 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 630 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.75 | +$42 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 529 | 47.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$249 | +$4.47 | |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? | No | 350 | 41.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$145 | +$3.95 | |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 25? | Yes | 268 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | −$0.04 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 256 | 29.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$75 | −$2.12 | |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 28? | Yes | 233 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | −$0.04 | |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 26? | Yes | 220 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | −$0.04 | |
| Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31? | Yes | 203 | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | −$3.34 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 200 | 94.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$189 | −$95 | |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 27? | Yes | 191 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | −$0.04 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 174 | 66.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$116 | +$7.15 | |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 23? | Yes | 160 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.32 | −$0.01 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | Yes | 151 | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.94 | −$2.40 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on July 11, 2026? | Yes | 140 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.80 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 29? | Yes | 110 | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | −$0.04 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on July 4, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.22 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 100 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026? | No | 100 | 62.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$63 | −$0.93 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 100 | 23.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$24 | +$137 | |
| Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | Yes | 86 | 40.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$35 | −$0.45 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? | Yes | 85 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.80 | −$0.23 | |
| Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? | Yes | 84 | 17.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | +$1.79 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5? | Yes | 83 | 18.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | +$15 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 160T and 165T tokens the week of September 28? | Yes | 81 | 41.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$34 | −$0.71 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 81 | 69¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.69 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on April 24, 2026? | Yes | 81 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.01 | $0 | |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? | No | 80 | 46.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | −$0.50 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 80 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.12 | +$1.44 | |
| Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026? | Yes | 75 | 82.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$62 | −$34 | |
| Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? | Yes | 70 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.30 | $0 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? | Yes | 61 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.83 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceXAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 60 | 69¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$41 | −$0.34 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026? | No | 60 | 64¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$38 | −$3.54 | |
| Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | Yes | 60 | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.04 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? | Yes | 59 | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.63 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 40 | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.88 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 40 | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.60 | −$0.29 | |
| Will any other model be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 38 | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 37 | 58.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | −$4.48 | |
| Will Rabi Lamichhane be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? | Yes | 34 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.24 | +$20 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | Yes | 22 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.12 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 20 | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.34 | $0 | |
| Will "The Odyssey" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 14.5m and 16m? | Yes | 20 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | −$0.19 | |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 20 | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.32 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? | Yes | 20 | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.60 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 20 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | −$0.17 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on September 21, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 20 | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.76 | −$2.96 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 20 | 93.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 20 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.24 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 160T tokens the week of September 28? | Yes | 20 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.20 | $0 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on July 18, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 20 | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.84 | $0 | |
| Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 20 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.06 | $0 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? | Yes | 18 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.03 | $0 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? | Yes | 17 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.24 | +$1.61 | |
| Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m? | Yes | 15 | 58.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.80 | −$0.18 | |
| Will OpenAI have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 15 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 15 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.04 | $0 | |
| Will Loktantrik Samajwadi Party Nepal win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election? | Yes | 12 | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.36 | −$15 | |
| Will Rastriya Janamorcha win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election? | Yes | 12 | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.36 | −$16 | |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Yes | 10 | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.17 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 10 | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.27 | −$14 | |
| Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | Yes | 8 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.10 | $0 | |