sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

0x34d…1b63

0x34d…1b63
WR 60+WeatherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2,230vol $295k
PnL 30d+$725gains $2,496 · losses $813
PnL 7d+$671win rate 7d 76.3%
Win rate64.1%adj 62.8% · 30d 70.8%
Open value$12.3kcash n/a
Positions51 / 257open / all-time
Max drawdown−57.3%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$4,007below peak −$659Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

60/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale48
Adjusted win rateraw 64.1% · shrunk toward 50%57
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable80
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity43

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? · Yesclosed+$1,929Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? · Noclosed+$800Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? · Noclosed+$540Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? · Yesclosed+$397Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? · Yesopen+$265

Worst markets

Will the highest wind gust at Boston Logan be 50 kt or more? · Noopen−$1,674Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? · Yesclosed−$706Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? · Yesclosed−$606Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Noclosed−$568Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? · Yesclosed−$385

Open positions · 51

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes5,07165.1¢62.5¢$3,169−$133+$6.75
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?Yes1,85674.9¢82.5¢$1,531+$142+$123
Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Yes97884.4¢89¢$870+$45+$20
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Yes1,94433.8¢38¢$739+$81+$58
Will global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in September 2026?No53796.9¢98.4¢$528+$7.96$0
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?No50983.5¢95.5¢$486+$61$0
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?Yes2,51320.3¢17¢$427−$84+$171
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in September 2026?No40497.6¢99¢$400+$5.35$0
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?Yes46477.4¢84¢$390+$31+$9.36
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?Yes48472.2¢79.5¢$385+$35+$43
Will September 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No37580¢98.3¢$369+$69+$9.43
Will NYC have more than 6.25 inches of precipitation in October?No37391.5¢93¢$347+$5.71+$1.43
Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October?No34284.3¢95.5¢$327+$38+$25
Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?Yes24997.1¢96.9¢$241−$0.55$0
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?Yes24292.8¢97.2¢$235+$11+$13
Will Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?No28579.8¢82.5¢$235+$7.77+$116
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in September 2026?No23696.3¢96.8¢$228+$1.16$0
Will NYC have between 4.75 and 5.25 inches of precipitation in October?No19891.4¢88.5¢$175−$5.71−$5.70
Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 8.30 ft MLLW or more?No22775.4¢69¢$157−$14+$0.73
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?No32146¢43.5¢$140−$8.04$0
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in September 2026?Yes12588.9¢89.5¢$112+$0.71$0
Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 50-100mm?Yes13086.6¢84.5¢$110−$2.72−$1.45
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026?No13987.5¢72.5¢$101−$21$0
Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?No8692.8¢99.3¢$85+$5.59+$11
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?No8092.5¢96.6¢$77+$3.24−$1.15
Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 20-50mm?No7796.8¢97.1¢$75+$0.20−$12
Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be less than 20mm?No7199¢96¢$69−$2.14$0
Will Seattle have between 3.75 and 4.75 inches of precipitation in October?No7184.7¢83.5¢$59−$0.89$0
Will Seattle have more than 6 inches of precipitation in October?No6290¢91.8¢$57+$1.09+$34
Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in September 2026?No5589.8¢93.5¢$51+$2.04$0
Will NYC have between 5.25 and 6.25 inches of precipitation in October?No4192.2¢94.7¢$38+$0.99$0
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?Yes1,5372.4¢2.2¢$34−$2.76+$1.65
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 96 km/h or above in October?Yes4546.1¢45¢$20−$0.50$0
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 86 to 95 km/h in October?Yes4034.5¢40.5¢$16+$2.40$0
Will December be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?Yes3468.8¢4¢$14−$17$0
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?No4823.5¢16¢$7.69−$3.61+$45
Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 8.10 ft MLLW or more?No1271.4¢59¢$7.08−$1.49−$4.40
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 85 km/h or below in October?Yes3424¢19¢$6.46−$1.70−$0.40
Will Hong Kong have 210mm or more of precipitation in October?Yes1557.8¢3.8¢$5.90−$6.24$0
Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?Yes2026.2¢24.5¢$4.89−$0.35−$9.49
Will October 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?Yes1890.4¢1.6¢$2.93+$2.17$0
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?Yes1,0510.5¢0.2¢$1.58−$4.22+$0.37
Will September 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?Yes1760.7¢0.5¢$0.79−$0.47$0
Will the highest wind gust at Boston Logan be 50 kt or more?No4,08837.1¢0¢$0−$1,517−$156
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.45ºC in August 2026?Yes8792.3¢0¢$0−$20−$7.79
Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?Yes52623.8¢0¢$0−$125−$64
Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?No28023.3¢0¢$0−$65−$25
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 14?Yes552¢0¢$0−$2.60−$0.06
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 14?Yes546¢0¢$0−$2.30−$0.06
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 15?Yes578¢0¢$0−$3.90−$0.04
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?Yes23.6¢0¢$0−$0.09−$13

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?38¢100$3864%60
BUY YesWill Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?26.2¢20$5.2464%60
SELL YesWill Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?26.2¢147$3864%60
SELL YesWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?83¢70$5864%60
SELL YesWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?81¢32$2664%60
SELL YesWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?83¢40$3364%60
SELL YesWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?84¢40$3464%60
BUY YesWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?77.5¢637$49464%60
BUY NoWill the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?46¢321$14864%60
SELL YesWill the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?54.6¢26$1464%60
BUY YesWill Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 50-100mm?86¢119$10264%60
BUY NoWill Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?81¢20$1664%60
BUY NoWill Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?81¢20$1664%60
BUY NoWill Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October?85¢60$5164%60
SELL NoWill Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?85¢160$13664%60
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026?89¢5$4.4564%60
BUY YesWill the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?2.2¢105$2.3164%60
SELL YesWill NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?29¢60$1764%60
BUY YesWill Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?20¢20$4.0064%60
SELL YesWill the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?84¢142$11964%60