sharpside
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Traders/Rank #10,898

MasonsConqueredRome

0x357…2a0c
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsSportCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$88.3kvol $11.7M
PnL 30d+$3,888gains $2,590 · losses $0.44
PnL 7d+$4,769win rate 7d 80.0%
Win rate81.0%adj 79.8% · 30d 80.0%
Open value$30.5kcash n/a
Positions527 / 1,027open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$79.6kbelow peak −$103kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

43/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 81.0% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No7,55650¢51.6¢$3,895+$117$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes21.4k11¢17.8¢$3,803+$1,446$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes7,55650¢48.4¢$3,661−$117$0
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?Yes3,46143.9¢90.4¢$3,127+$1,608+$49
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes2,64687.9¢98.7¢$2,610+$283+$0.50
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No2,50067.6¢94.5¢$2,362+$672$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No3,00057.8¢76.5¢$2,295+$560$0
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?No1,00012¢97.3¢$973+$853$0
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No1,00070¢97.1¢$971+$271$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No1,00074¢89¢$890+$150$0
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No50098.1¢99.4¢$497+$6.50$0
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes16.1k3.3¢3.1¢$490−$46$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No50089¢96.2¢$481+$36$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No50087¢96.1¢$480+$45$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes50016.4¢87.1¢$435+$353$0
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes2,3832¢16¢$380+$332+$598
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes5950¢60.5¢$360+$360$0
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes10,0002.2¢3.5¢$345+$125$0
EU dissolves before 2027?No30595.6¢98.9¢$301+$9.90$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No1,00089.1¢28.5¢$285−$606$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No33391¢83.5¢$278−$25$0
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No24774.5¢96.1¢$237+$53$0
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison?No25271.1¢94.1¢$237+$58+$4.44
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes5950¢39.5¢$235+$235$0
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?No20078.3¢94.9¢$190+$33+$7.67
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?No15093.5¢81.1¢$122−$19+$80
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?Yes1,50024.3¢7.9¢$118−$247$0
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?No12990.9¢81¢$105−$13+$48
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?No6879¢96.1¢$65+$12+$119
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes2,6180.2¢1.6¢$41+$35$0
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes2,6180.2¢1.3¢$34+$29$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Yes10036¢22.5¢$22−$13$0
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?No2193¢97.7¢$21+$1.01$0
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Yes25015¢7¢$18−$20$0
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?No1533¢97.7¢$15+$9.95$0
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes2,00014.5¢0.8¢$15−$275$0
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?Avengers: Doomsday1570¢97.2¢$15+$4.07$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No1394.1¢98.1¢$13+$0.54$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?No2743¢45.5¢$12+$0.67$0
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Yes28226.2¢4.2¢$12−$62+$46
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes9212¢12.5¢$12+$0.46$0
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes6330.2¢1.6¢$10+$8.60+$499
Will the Waddani Party (Somaliland National Party) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?No726¢98.2¢$6.99+$5.14$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes8613¢8¢$6.86−$4.29$0
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes5700.2¢1¢$5.41+$4.04+$487
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes4010¢12.5¢$5.00+$1.00$0
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes290.2¢1.6¢$0.45+$0.39−$2.58
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes290.2¢1.5¢$0.42+$0.35+$488
Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes290.2¢1.5¢$0.42+$0.35+$486
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes290.2¢1.3¢$0.38+$0.32−$2.58
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes290.2¢1.2¢$0.33+$0.26+$486
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes5300¢0.1¢$0.26+$0.26$0
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes4950¢0.1¢$0.25+$0.25$0
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)Hanwha Life Esports251k5.2¢0¢$0−$13.1k$0
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)CTBC Flying Oyster180k12.9¢0¢$0−$23.3k−$493
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)G2 Esports158k5.2¢0¢$0−$8,238+$2,877
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 WinnerG2 Esports143k7.2¢0¢$0−$10.2k−$480
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3)Team Secret Whales142k3¢0¢$0−$4,321$0
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerT1116k13.7¢0¢$0−$15.8k+$2,197
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 WinnerFlyQuest110k24.1¢0¢$0−$26.5k$0
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3)FlyQuest107k9.9¢0¢$0−$10.6k−$3,155
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports80.1k2.3¢0¢$0−$1,860+$127
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 WinnerCTBC Flying Oyster70.3k6.5¢0¢$0−$4,574−$1,671
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 WinnerCTBC Flying Oyster56.9k6.3¢0¢$0−$3,589$0
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3)PSG Talon56.8k23.3¢0¢$0−$13.3k$0
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 WinnerCTBC Flying Oyster53.7k5.9¢0¢$0−$3,194$0
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 WinnerHanwha Life Esports45.9k16.2¢0¢$0−$7,452+$0.99
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3)CTBC Flying Oyster40.7k17.1¢0¢$0−$6,941$0
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 WinnerTop Esports38.8k1¢0¢$0−$372−$202
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 WinnerG2 Esports34.9k33.6¢0¢$0−$11.7k$0
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?No34.0k30.4¢0¢$0−$10.3k−$4,302
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Yes33.9k23.4¢0¢$0−$7,909−$2,899
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 2 WinnerOh My God33.4k10.3¢0¢$0−$3,437−$168
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports30.0k5.7¢0¢$0−$1,700$0
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Yes28.4k8.2¢0¢$0−$2,318$0
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Yes27.6k10.6¢0¢$0−$2,926−$542
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025No27.1k10.3¢0¢$0−$2,798$0
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 WinnerHanwha Life Esports26.1k16.3¢0¢$0−$4,257$0
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)Anyone's Legend25.8k55.8¢0¢$0−$14.4k+$142
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 WinnerT125.2k3.6¢0¢$0−$916+$190
Buccaneers vs. RamsBuccaneers23.0k17.3¢0¢$0−$3,985−$938
Will Zohran Mamdani win all 5 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes22.6k6.7¢0¢$0−$1,514−$727
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Yes21.3k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Yes21.3k0¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Yes21.3k4.5¢0¢$0−$968+$250
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Yes21.3k0¢0¢$0$0$0
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 2 WinnerFlyQuest20.8k12.4¢0¢$0−$2,593$0
Packers vs. GiantsGiants20.0k24¢0¢$0−$4,800$0
Bills vs. PanthersPanthers20.0k24¢0¢$0−$4,800$0
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Yes19.7k11.3¢0¢$0−$2,238+$2,143
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 WinnerG2 Esports19.1k21.8¢0¢$0−$4,176−$2,611
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?Yes18.5k37¢0¢$0−$6,846+$165
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO1)Gen.G18.5k4.2¢0¢$0−$783−$0.18
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Yes18.2k4.5¢0¢$0−$828+$846
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes18.1k5.6¢0¢$0−$1,013+$341
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winner100 Thieves17.6k3.7¢0¢$0−$645+$449
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Team Liquid (BO1)Team Liquid17.5k4.8¢0¢$0−$835+$602
Jets vs. JaguarsJets17.0k12¢0¢$0−$2,040$0
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 WinnerVivo Keyd Stars16.0k3.4¢0¢$0−$535$0
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?No15.3k0.1¢0¢$0−$15$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill the Kulmiye Party (Peace, Unity, and Development Party) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?0.1¢23$0.0281%43
SELL YesIsrael closes its airspace by September 30?71¢1,439$1,02281%43
BUY YesIsrael closes its airspace by September 30?56¢693$38881%43
BUY NoUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?99.9¢20.8k$20.8k81%43Whale
BUY YesIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?99.9¢41.5k$41.5k81%43Whale
BUY YesUS forces enter Iran by December 31?99.8¢24.7k$24.6k81%43Whale
SELL Yes2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?63.4¢3,453$2,18881%43
BUY NoWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?60.2¢1,934$1,16581%43
BUY NoWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?69¢2,853$1,96881%43
BUY NoWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?89¢2,500$2,22581%43
BUY NoMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?86.4¢827$71481%43
BUY NoWill UK strike Iran by March 31?81.2¢44$3681%43
BUY NoWill another country strike Iran by March 31?58¢550$31981%43
BUY NoWill Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?72.9¢604$44081%43
BUY NoWill UAE strike Iran by March 31?64¢153$9881%43
BUY NoWill Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?46.4¢4,168$1,93581%43
BUY NoWill another country strike Iran by March 31?56.7¢192$10981%43
BUY YesKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?97.3¢750$73081%43
SELL YesKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?98¢686$67281%43
SELL NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?5.6¢1,000$5681%43