PnL all-time+$101kvol $37.7M
PnL 30d+$1,293gains $12.7k · losses $18.7k
PnL 7d−$386win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate65.6%adj 65.0% · 30d 54.5%
Open value$133kcash n/a
Positions9 / 509open / all-time
Max drawdown−76.6%of equity peak
Account age3.3ylast trade 7d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$101kbelow peak −$8,710Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale71
Adjusted win rateraw 65.6% · shrunk toward 50%63
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable90
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d74
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity23
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? · Yesclosed+$83.2kWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yesclosed+$63.9kWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? · Yesclosed+$32.4kWill global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025? · Yesclosed+$27.6kKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yesclosed+$14.3k
Worst markets
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Noclosed−$57.1kWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? · Noclosed−$25.3kKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Noclosed−$13.3kUS forces enter Iran by April 30? · Noclosed−$11.2kWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m? · Yesclosed−$10.4k
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 67.3k | 92¢ | 91.5¢ | $61.6k | −$336 | +$400 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 30.0k | 83.7¢ | 83.5¢ | $25.1k | −$50 | +$915 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 20.0k | 92¢ | 95.5¢ | $19.1k | +$700 | +$325 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 14.0k | 99.4¢ | 99.8¢ | $14.0k | +$56 | +$234 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 4,000 | 84¢ | 94.5¢ | $3,780 | +$420 | $0 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 5,000 | 73¢ | 73.5¢ | $3,675 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 5,556 | 70.6¢ | 63.5¢ | $3,528 | −$394 | +$17 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 2,373 | 84¢ | 95.5¢ | $2,266 | +$273 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 56 | 80¢ | 90.5¢ | $50 | +$5.84 | +$35 |
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