PnL all-time−$3,366vol $867k
PnL 30d+$2,426gains $536 · losses $2,595
PnL 7d+$18.2kwin rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate59.1%adj 54.8% · 30d 33.3%
Open value$206kcash n/a
Positions12 / 34open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 1d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$1,445below peak −$4,431Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
21/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 59.1% · shrunk toward 50%37
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable51
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · Yesclosed+$6,096Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yesopen+$3,170Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Noclosed+$536US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? · Yesclosed+$5.67US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? · Yesclosed+$4.88
Worst markets
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yesclosed−$2,593Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yesopen−$1,501Will another country strike Iran by March 7? · Yesopen−$1,301Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yesopen−$1,249US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,101
Open positions · 12
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 526k | 35.9¢ | 36.5¢ | $192k | +$3,170 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 103k | 14.7¢ | 13.5¢ | $13.9k | −$1,249 | −$0.19 | |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | Yes | 8,294 | 15.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,301 | $0 | |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 4,713 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$423 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 4,551 | 22¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,001 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 4,416 | 34¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,501 | $0 | |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Yes | 20 | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 9 | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 6 | 32.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? | No | 2 | 40.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 2 | 58¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? | Down | 1 | 69¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 |
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