PnL all-time+$2,310vol $123k
PnL 30d+$127gains $279 · losses $104
PnL 7d−$22win rate 7d 77.8%
Win rate88.4%adj 86.9% · 30d 77.1%
Open value$415cash n/a
Positions8 / 1,227open / all-time
Max drawdown−11.7%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 3d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$2,380below peak −$23Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
80/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale48
Adjusted win rateraw 88.4% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d90
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity88
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? · Yesclosed+$62Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? · Yesclosed+$53Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? · Noclosed+$52Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yesclosed+$34Will there be at least 3100+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$34
Worst markets
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? · Noclosed−$276Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? · Yesclosed−$121Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? · Noclosed−$77Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? · Noclosed−$62Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week? · Yesclosed−$45
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 4200 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 141 | 90.6¢ | 99.7¢ | $141 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 150 | 86.1¢ | 87¢ | $130 | +$1.27 | +$6.69 | |
| Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 48 | 93.4¢ | 96.5¢ | $46 | +$1.51 | $0 | |
| Will there be at least 4300 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 40 | 87¢ | 96.6¢ | $39 | +$3.82 | $0 | |
| Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 30 | 58¢ | 98.1¢ | $29 | +$12 | −$5.60 | |
| Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 30 | 88¢ | 89¢ | $27 | +$0.30 | $0 | |
| Will Billie Eilish be the third most streamed artist for 2026? | No | 2 | 90.8¢ | 99.4¢ | $1.86 | +$0.16 | −$16 | |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 150 | 0.7¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.82 | −$0.23 | +$0.14 |
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