sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

Michael5289

0x3c7…d4ee
SharpPnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsCultureWeatherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$37.2kvol $1.99M
PnL 30d+$216gains $591 · losses $1.94
PnL 7d+$229win rate 7d 90.9%
Win rate97.8%adj 96.0% · 30d 94.4%
Open value$4,437cash n/a
Positions46 / 2,435open / all-time
Max drawdown−3.7%of equity peak
Account age1.6ylast trade 20h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$37.9kbelow peak $0Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

86/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65
Adjusted win rateraw 97.8% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity96

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 46

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No50082¢97.4¢$487+$77$0
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?No48080.1¢87¢$418+$33$0
Will Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?No33198.2¢99.8¢$331+$5.22$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No29081.3¢96.1¢$279+$43$0
New pandemic in 2026?No28963.5¢95.5¢$276+$93$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?No30589.8¢90¢$274+$0.60$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?No24682.3¢94.3¢$232+$29$0
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?No21788.3¢98.1¢$213+$21$0
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?No20065¢97.3¢$194+$64$0
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?No20086.5¢95.9¢$192+$19$0
Will Isaias peak at Category 3?Yes18698.7¢99.3¢$185+$1.03$0
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?No19080.2¢91.5¢$174+$21$0
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?No17583.4¢95.5¢$167+$21$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No10083¢96.2¢$96+$13$0
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?No10090¢95.8¢$96+$5.80$0
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?Yes8698.2¢98.5¢$84+$0.25$0
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?No7993¢95.4¢$75+$1.84$0
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No6087¢98.8¢$59+$7.05$0
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?No5588.7¢97.3¢$54+$4.73$0
Will Isaias make landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane?No5096¢99.5¢$50+$1.75$0
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes5090.5¢98.7¢$49+$4.08$0
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?Yes5188.6¢97.4¢$49+$4.44$0
Will Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?Yes5085¢87¢$44+$1.00$0
Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?No4586.2¢93.1¢$42+$3.11$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?No4088¢96¢$38+$3.20$0
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?No3069¢97.5¢$30+$8.62$0
Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?No3379.2¢79.5¢$26+$0.11$0
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes2765.4¢95.1¢$26+$8.06+$0.76
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?Yes2596.5¢99.8¢$25+$0.82+$13
Will a hurricane make landfall in Virginia by November 30, 2026?No2596¢96.6¢$24+$0.14$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?No2597¢95.5¢$24−$0.37$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026?No2596.4¢94.4¢$24−$0.50$0
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?No2578.6¢89.1¢$22+$2.61$0
Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane?No2191.6¢95.7¢$20+$0.86$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?No2095¢97.5¢$19+$0.49$0
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii in 2026?No1982¢87.5¢$17+$1.04$0
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No1082¢97¢$9.70+$1.50$0
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?No1086¢95¢$9.50+$0.90$0
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?No485¢97.8¢$4.02+$0.52$0
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Yes4057¢1.3¢$0.50−$22$0
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?Yes335¢3.6¢$0.09−$0.82+$1.06
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 16?Yes2969.6¢0¢$0−$29$0
Will there be at least 20,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes5572¢0¢$0−$39−$0.44
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Yes3826.7¢0¢$0−$10−$0.37
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?No3080.5¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will Trump say "Future President" in July?No593¢0¢$0−$4.65−$0.01

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?85¢50$4398%86Sharp
BUY YesWill Isaias peak at Category 3?99¢6$6.2198%86Sharp
BUY YesWill Isaias peak at Category 3?98.7¢154$15298%86Sharp
BUY YesWill Isaias peak at Category 3?98.6¢26$2698%86Sharp
BUY YesWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?99¢11$1198%86Sharp
BUY YesWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?99¢22$2298%86Sharp
BUY YesWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?98¢5$5.1598%86Sharp
BUY YesWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?97¢13$1398%86Sharp
BUY YesWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?98¢29$2898%86Sharp
BUY YesWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?97¢6$5.5298%86Sharp
BUY NoWill "Rigged" be in the headlines this week?99.9¢181$18198%86Sharp
BUY NoWill "Trade" be in the headlines this week?99.9¢42$4298%86Sharp
BUY NoWill a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026?96.4¢25$2498%86Sharp
BUY NoWill a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?97¢25$2498%86Sharp
BUY NoWill a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?89¢56$5098%86Sharp
BUY NoWill a hurricane make landfall in Virginia by November 30, 2026?96¢25$2498%86Sharp
BUY NoWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?90¢21$1998%86Sharp
BUY NoWill Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?99.2¢274$27298%86Sharp
BUY NoWill Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?98.8¢15$1598%86Sharp
BUY NoWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 10?99¢19$1998%86Sharp