PnL all-time+$341kvol $17.6M
PnL 30d+$81.4kgains $84.7k · losses $2,916
PnL 7d+$7,492win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate76.5%adj 75.1% · 30d 90.0%
Open value$333kcash n/a
Positions10 / 370open / all-time
Max drawdown−36.0%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 3d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$358kbelow peak $0Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
76/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale79
Adjusted win rateraw 76.5% · shrunk toward 50%88
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable86
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d89
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity64
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$98.7kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$45.4kFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? · Yesclosed+$33.0kFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$25.5kWill MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday? · Noclosed+$23.6k
Worst markets
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed−$27.2kU.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? · Noclosed−$25.3kWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? · Noclosed−$24.3kUS military action against Iran by Saturday? · Noclosed−$18.6kWill Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 25-Mar 3? · Yesclosed−$15.9k
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 233k | 77.5¢ | 84.5¢ | $197k | +$16.4k | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 73.0k | 93.1¢ | 94.5¢ | $69.0k | +$1,055 | $0 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 35.0k | 85.3¢ | 94.5¢ | $33.1k | +$3,215 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 41.0k | 46.8¢ | 36.5¢ | $15.0k | −$4,240 | +$8.62 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37.0k | 21.2¢ | 15.2¢ | $5,606 | −$2,256 | +$118 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 5,800 | 75¢ | 73.7¢ | $4,275 | −$76 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 5,500 | 53.2¢ | 55.5¢ | $3,053 | +$125 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,900 | 66¢ | 61.5¢ | $2,398 | −$174 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,200 | 68.2¢ | 71.5¢ | $2,288 | +$107 | $0 | |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | Yes | 11.6k | 26¢ | 13.5¢ | $1,566 | −$1,446 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s