PnL all-time−$577vol $48.3k
PnL 30d−$5.28gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate44.8%adj 46.9% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$1,314cash n/a
Positions11 / 48open / all-time
Max drawdown−86.0%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 9mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$583below peak −$858Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
15/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 44.8% · shrunk toward 50%17
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable56
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity14
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yesclosed+$109Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26? · Yesclosed+$82Will Fomo launch a token by March 31 2026? · Noopen+$82John Brennan federally charged by December 31? · Noopen+$74Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? · Yesclosed+$48
Worst markets
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26? · Yesopen−$558Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? · Noopen−$168Will ENA: Dream BBQ win Outstanding Visual Style at the 2025 Steam Awards? · Yesopen−$113Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20? · Yesclosed−$73U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? · Yesopen−$71
Open positions · 11
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fomo launch a token by March 31 2026? | No | 633 | 87¢ | 100¢ | $633 | +$82 | $0 | |
| John Brennan federally charged by December 31? | No | 603 | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | $603 | +$74 | $0 | |
| Will AOI win the Defi App trading competition? | No | 39 | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | $39 | +$5.23 | +$24 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 44 | 72¢ | 59.5¢ | $26 | −$5.50 | +$2.61 | |
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 13 | 31¢ | 100¢ | $13 | +$8.66 | −$6.44 | |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | Yes | 1,050 | 53.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$558 | $0 | |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | No | 699 | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$168 | $0 | |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 392 | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$71 | $0 | |
| Will ENA: Dream BBQ win Outstanding Visual Style at the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 363 | 31¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$113 | $0 | |
| Will Trump say "Election" while addressing the nation on December 17? | No | 129 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21 | +$11 | |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 30 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.90 | $0 |
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