sharpside
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0x402…3644

0x402…3644
OtherPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$329vol $126k
PnL 30d+$767gains $1,810 · losses $1,097
PnL 7d+$559win rate 7d 57.1%
Win rate53.8%adj 53.0% · 30d 53.9%
Open value$1,785cash n/a
Positions35 / 115open / all-time
Max drawdown−58.9%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 5h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$743below peak −$151Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale36
Adjusted win rateraw 53.8% · shrunk toward 50%33
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable69
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity41

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 35

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?Yes69343.4¢56.5¢$392+$91$0
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?Yes47740.3¢52¢$248+$56$0
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?No35452.3¢68.5¢$243+$58$0
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?Yes38452.1¢59.5¢$229+$29$0
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?Yes35133.8¢49.5¢$174+$55$0
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?Yes34241¢47.5¢$162+$22$0
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes23045.7¢42¢$96−$8.55$0
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Yes51126.8¢15.5¢$79−$58+$62
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026?No8056.1¢75.5¢$61+$16$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Yes12831.3¢25¢$32−$8.06$0
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?No2972¢82.5¢$24+$3.06$0
Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?Yes16615.1¢14.5¢$24−$0.99+$1.36
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?No6674.5¢3¢$20−$9.99$0
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No632.5¢37.5¢$2.31+$0.31$0
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Yes1798.4¢0.1¢$0.09−$15$0
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes54.0k0.1¢0¢$0−$54−$2.16
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?No4,1000.1¢0¢$0−$5.00+$48
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3,3330.3¢0¢$0−$9.99−$0.40
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?No1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.04
Will Renan Santos win less than 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes5337.5¢0¢$0−$40−$1.48
Will Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election?Yes4013.7¢0¢$0−$15−$0.58
Will Helena da Asatur win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?Yes39215.3¢0¢$0−$60−$1.98
Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?Yes29524.4¢0¢$0−$72−$1.27
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?Yes29017.2¢0¢$0−$50+$5.20
Will Chico Rodrigues win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?Yes2494¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.38
Will Renan Santos win between 6% and 8% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1798.4¢0¢$0−$15−$0.55
Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes16018.7¢0¢$0−$30−$5.36
Will Gleisi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?Yes1604.7¢0¢$0−$7.46−$0.28
Will Aécio Neves win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?Yes15020¢0¢$0−$30−$0.94
Will Wilson Lima win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?Yes14820.2¢0¢$0−$30−$0.96
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Yes1252.4¢0¢$0−$3.00−$0.12
Will Paulo Mourão win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?Yes1124.5¢0¢$0−$5.00−$7.20
Will Domingos Sávio win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?Yes9930.6¢0¢$0−$30+$7.84
Will Dr. Zacharias Calil win the second-most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?Yes6415.6¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.34
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?Yes3022.3¢0¢$0−$6.73$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?43¢20$8.6054%46
BUY NoWill GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?46.5¢114$5354%46
BUY YesWill GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?53¢60$3254%46
BUY YesWill GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?52¢60$3154%46
BUY YesWill GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?53¢173$9254%46
BUY YesWill Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?52.8¢123$6554%46
BUY YesWill GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?41.8¢22$9.0054%46
SELL YesWill SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?29¢229$6654%46
BUY YesWill voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?52.1¢384$20054%46
SELL YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?25¢301$7554%46
BUY NoWill GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026?56.1¢80$4554%46
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?5.9¢20$1.2054%46
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?2.8¢316$9.0054%46
BUY YesWill SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?30.6¢229$7054%46
BUY YesWill SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?58.8¢255$15054%46
SELL NoWill SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?42¢189$7954%46
SELL YesWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?54¢259$14054%46
BUY YesWill Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?43.6¢138$6054%46
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?58¢259$15054%46
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?31¢519$16154%46