| Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 529 | 42.6¢ | 72¢ | $381 | +$156 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 553 | 55¢ | 54.5¢ | $301 | −$2.77 | $0 | |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting? | No | 383 | 71.4¢ | 77.4¢ | $296 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? | Yes | 353 | 59.2¢ | 72.5¢ | $256 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more? | Yes | 205 | 37.2¢ | 95.8¢ | $197 | +$120 | $0 | |
| Will Yuri Fulmer win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | No | 210 | 86¢ | 89.5¢ | $188 | +$7.33 | $0 | |
| Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? | Yes | 214 | 58.6¢ | 78.6¢ | $168 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31? | Yes | 214 | 72¢ | 77.5¢ | $166 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be 320,000 or more? | Yes | 549 | 11¢ | 29¢ | $159 | +$99 | $0 | |
| Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting? | Yes | 191 | 68.9¢ | 73.4¢ | $140 | +$8.55 | $0 | |
| Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 210 | 72¢ | 55.8¢ | $117 | −$34 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-03 House election by 12% or more? | No | 130 | 69¢ | 88.5¢ | $115 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 118 | 78¢ | 85.5¢ | $101 | +$8.85 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-10 House election by 21% or more? | No | 104 | 83.2¢ | 93.8¢ | $98 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | No | 100 | 68¢ | 67.5¢ | $68 | −$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? | No | 227 | 64.1¢ | 28.5¢ | $65 | −$81 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-25 House seat? | No | 65 | 89¢ | 98.2¢ | $64 | +$5.95 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat? | No | 63 | 92¢ | 98.4¢ | $62 | +$4.03 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-25 House seat? | Yes | 64 | 90¢ | 96.7¢ | $62 | +$4.29 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-11 House seat? | No | 63 | 92¢ | 96.4¢ | $61 | +$2.74 | $0 | |
| Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 197 | 27.4¢ | 30.5¢ | $60 | +$6.03 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-16 House seat? | No | 63 | 90¢ | 95.2¢ | $60 | +$3.24 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-16 House election by 30% or more? | No | 63 | 78.7¢ | 94¢ | $59 | +$9.62 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat? | No | 63 | 84¢ | 92¢ | $58 | +$5.04 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-07 House election by 12% or more? | Yes | 302 | 16.8¢ | 18¢ | $54 | +$3.63 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-19 House election by 21% or more? | No | 65 | 80¢ | 81.5¢ | $53 | +$0.97 | $0 | |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | No | 257 | 37¢ | 20.5¢ | $53 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Will Antonio Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election? | No | 71 | 70¢ | 69¢ | $49 | −$0.71 | $0 | |
| Will Chip Wilson win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | No | 50 | 90.6¢ | 96¢ | $48 | +$2.70 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-27 House seat? | No | 50 | 91.7¢ | 95.8¢ | $48 | +$2.02 | $0 | |
| Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 50 | 88¢ | 95.6¢ | $48 | +$3.77 | $0 | |
| Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 170 | 37.5¢ | 27.5¢ | $47 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 211 | 27¢ | 18.5¢ | $39 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NE-01 House election by 21% or more? | No | 40 | 81.5¢ | 96.7¢ | $39 | +$6.08 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 25% or more? | No | 40 | 79.5¢ | 96.4¢ | $39 | +$6.74 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 21% or more? | No | 62 | 53.4¢ | 57.5¢ | $36 | +$2.55 | $0 | |
| Will Caroline Elliott win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | No | 50 | 76.6¢ | 69.5¢ | $35 | −$3.56 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-03 House election by 35% or more? | Yes | 179 | 4.9¢ | 19.4¢ | $35 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections? | Yes | 60 | 49.3¢ | 55¢ | $33 | +$3.40 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more? | No | 63 | 28.6¢ | 47.5¢ | $30 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? | Yes | 40 | 69¢ | 72.5¢ | $29 | +$1.40 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat? | Yes | 40 | 62¢ | 71.5¢ | $29 | +$3.80 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 18% or more? | Yes | 186 | 10.7¢ | 14.5¢ | $27 | +$7.06 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more? | Yes | 63 | 25¢ | 42.5¢ | $27 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | Yes | 40 | 56.5¢ | 64.5¢ | $26 | +$3.20 | $0 | |
| Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 163 | 10.6¢ | 15.5¢ | $25 | +$8.04 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 18% or more? | Yes | 461 | 13.6¢ | 5.4¢ | $25 | −$38 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections? | No | 25 | 88.2¢ | 97.6¢ | $24 | +$2.34 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-07 House election by 18% or more? | No | 25 | 74.2¢ | 96.2¢ | $24 | +$5.50 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-17 House election by 12% or more? | No | 25 | 67¢ | 95¢ | $24 | +$7.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election by 30% or more? | Yes | 109 | 14.4¢ | 18.5¢ | $20 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-03 House election by 12% or more? | Yes | 172 | 8.2¢ | 11.5¢ | $20 | +$5.70 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-01 House election by 6% or more? | No | 20 | 78¢ | 96.5¢ | $19 | +$3.69 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-08 House election by 21% or more? | No | 20 | 75¢ | 95.3¢ | $19 | +$4.05 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat? | Yes | 20 | 84¢ | 92.5¢ | $19 | +$1.70 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-36 House election by 30% or more? | No | 20 | 78¢ | 91.9¢ | $18 | +$2.77 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat? | Yes | 50 | 17¢ | 36.5¢ | $18 | +$9.75 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-04 House election by 25% or more? | No | 20 | 84¢ | 89.1¢ | $18 | +$1.01 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans sweep the Iowa Senate and Governor elections? | No | 20 | 66¢ | 88¢ | $18 | +$4.40 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? | Yes | 46 | 47.9¢ | 37.9¢ | $17 | −$4.62 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win exactly 8 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 66 | 36.3¢ | 25¢ | $17 | −$7.48 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 20 | 79.4¢ | 78.8¢ | $16 | −$0.12 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | Yes | 20 | 86¢ | 74.5¢ | $15 | −$2.30 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win the Michigan Governor election and Republicans win the Michigan Senate election? | Yes | 63 | 22.8¢ | 23.5¢ | $15 | +$0.43 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win the Alaska Governor election and Democrats win the Alaska Senate election? | No | 15 | 80.6¢ | 95.9¢ | $15 | +$2.36 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections? | No | 15 | 82¢ | 96.6¢ | $14 | +$2.19 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-11 House election by 35% or more? | Yes | 175 | 9.2¢ | 7.8¢ | $14 | −$2.52 | $0 | |
| Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 92 | 16.5¢ | 14.5¢ | $13 | −$1.86 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win the Ohio Governor election and Republicans win the Ohio Senate election? | No | 14 | 73¢ | 88.5¢ | $12 | +$2.17 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections? | Yes | 20 | 30¢ | 60¢ | $12 | +$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat? | No | 40 | 35¢ | 28.5¢ | $11 | −$2.60 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats sweep the Iowa Senate and Governor elections? | Yes | 26 | 26¢ | 39.5¢ | $10 | +$3.51 | $0 | |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be 4,700,000 or more? | Yes | 150 | 7.8¢ | 6.5¢ | $9.75 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CO-02 House seat? | Yes | 10 | 84¢ | 97.4¢ | $9.73 | +$1.33 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election? | Yes | 20 | 30¢ | 47¢ | $9.40 | +$3.40 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MT-01 House election by 12% or more? | Yes | 85 | 8¢ | 9.5¢ | $8.03 | +$1.26 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections? | No | 20 | 45¢ | 40¢ | $8.00 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 35 | 41¢ | 22.5¢ | $7.79 | −$6.42 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans sweep the New Hampshire Senate and Governor elections? | Yes | 73 | 12.6¢ | 10.5¢ | $7.67 | −$1.52 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win the Ohio Governor election and Republicans win the Ohio Senate election? | Yes | 64 | 11.8¢ | 11.5¢ | $7.36 | −$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | No | 20 | 44¢ | 35.5¢ | $7.10 | −$1.70 | $0 | |
| Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | Yes | 60 | 13.9¢ | 11.5¢ | $6.90 | −$1.47 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections? | Yes | 25 | 24¢ | 25.5¢ | $6.38 | +$0.38 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more? | Yes | 68 | 7.7¢ | 9¢ | $6.13 | +$0.88 | $0 | |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Yes | 63 | 15¢ | 9.5¢ | $5.99 | −$3.46 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Alabama in the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 20 | 17¢ | 28¢ | $5.60 | +$2.20 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-27 House election by 6% or more? | Yes | 52 | 4.7¢ | 10.7¢ | $5.54 | +$3.08 | $0 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 10 | 56¢ | 55.5¢ | $5.42 | −$0.05 | $0 | |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | No | 30 | 11.5¢ | 16.5¢ | $4.93 | +$1.49 | $0 | |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security? | Yes | 38 | 14¢ | 12¢ | $4.56 | −$0.76 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in Florida in the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 5 | 85¢ | 89.6¢ | $4.48 | +$0.23 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections? | Yes | 6 | 36¢ | 69.5¢ | $4.17 | +$2.01 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-15 House seat? | Yes | 50 | 6.6¢ | 8.1¢ | $4.03 | +$0.72 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-04 House election by 30% or more? | No | 4 | 67¢ | 96.2¢ | $3.85 | +$1.17 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 25% or more? | Yes | 100 | 2.1¢ | 3.7¢ | $3.65 | +$1.55 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections? | No | 13 | 28¢ | 27.5¢ | $3.58 | −$0.06 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Florida in the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 30 | 10.7¢ | 11.3¢ | $3.38 | +$0.17 | $0 | |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | Yes | 5 | 62¢ | 64¢ | $3.20 | +$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 3% or more? | Yes | 45 | 5¢ | 7¢ | $3.15 | +$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-10 House election by 21% or more? | Yes | 50 | 2¢ | 6.2¢ | $3.10 | +$2.10 | $0 | |