sharpside
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Traders/Rank #14,442

moneymakingmachine

0x420…e3c9
WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$14.7kvol $3.27M
PnL 30d+$6,025gains $4,604 · losses $1,378
PnL 7d−$1,553win rate 7d 69.2%
Win rate63.0%adj 62.4% · 30d 66.2%
Open value$67.4kcash n/a
Positions71 / 1,600open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.5ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$11.2kbelow peak −$2,824Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

37/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 63.0% · shrunk toward 50%56
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 71

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes20.9k71.8¢90.5¢$18.9k+$3,900$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes15.0k48.1¢61.5¢$9,225+$2,008+$1,071
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo5,81486.3¢90.5¢$5,262+$246$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes8,87921.4¢52.8¢$4,683+$2,785+$782
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes6,17837.2¢62.5¢$3,861+$1,565$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No4,99769.1¢69.5¢$3,473+$22$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No2,59268.5¢75.5¢$1,957+$181$0
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?No2,21978.9¢82¢$1,820+$69$0
US recession by end of 2026?No1,62686.1¢92.5¢$1,504+$103$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes2,00051.2¢58.5¢$1,170+$145+$284
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No1,32569.1¢81.5¢$1,080+$164$0
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No1,06286.6¢93.5¢$993+$73+$2,466
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes3,27131.2¢28.5¢$932−$88$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?Yes89685.7¢88.3¢$791+$22$0
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No7500¢91¢$683+$683$0
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No76875.1¢77.5¢$596+$19$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Yes75054.7¢76.5¢$574+$164$0
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?No76065.8¢71.5¢$543+$43$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes53679¢87.9¢$471+$48$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?Yes60656.9¢75¢$454+$109$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes62552.6¢72.5¢$453+$124$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes1,04248¢40.5¢$422−$78$0
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes60070.8¢69.5¢$417−$8.00$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes6,0007.3¢6.4¢$381−$57$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?Yes96836.2¢37.5¢$363+$13$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?Yes43856¢81.5¢$357+$112$0
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?No45756¢75¢$343+$87$0
No one announced as next James Bond?No48282.5¢66.5¢$321−$77$0
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes54754¢58.5¢$320+$25$0
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Yes38377.2¢74.5¢$286−$11$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes33377¢80.5¢$268+$12$0
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes40574¢65.5¢$266−$34$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Yes87021.8¢27.5¢$239+$50$0
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?Yes28587.7¢83.5¢$238−$12$0
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2028?No47835.1¢46¢$220+$52$0
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes13.3k1.5¢1.7¢$220+$20$0
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?No24680.5¢88.5¢$217+$20$0
Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?Yes1,32614¢16.1¢$213+$27$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?Yes70030¢29.5¢$207−$3.50−$12
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?No22959.2¢75.5¢$173+$37$0
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes43523¢38.5¢$167+$67$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?No19186.7¢87¢$167+$0.58$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Yes51534¢30.5¢$157−$18$0
Will the Republican Party win the PA-10 House seat?No17080.6¢80.5¢$136−$0.25$0
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Yes32130.2¢35.6¢$114+$17$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?Yes5753¢19.5¢$112+$95$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes22837.2¢48.4¢$110+$26$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?No23941.8¢45¢$108+$7.74$0
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes18343.2¢58.5¢$107+$28$0
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No11884.1¢86¢$102+$2.30$0
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No18255¢54¢$98−$1.82$0
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat?Yes12180¢80.5¢$97+$0.60$0
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?Yes2,36410.5¢3.8¢$90−$159$0
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes10976¢80.5¢$88+$4.91$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?No10055¢83.5¢$84+$29$0
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?No9486.9¢84¢$79−$2.69$0
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?No8487.7¢94.3¢$79+$5.52$0
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No8089.5¢90¢$72+$0.40$0
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes10062¢70.5¢$71+$8.50$0
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Yes6884.7¢94.2¢$64+$6.49$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes9266¢68.5¢$63+$2.31$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Yes4,6677.1¢1.4¢$63−$268$0
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No15039¢41.5¢$62+$3.75$0
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?No50013¢11.5¢$58−$7.50$0
Graham Platner divorce by October 31?No5693.9¢95.3¢$53+$0.75+$5.22
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?No20025¢22.5¢$45−$5.00$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Yes13949.4¢22.5¢$31−$37$0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?No2147¢10.1¢$22+$6.64$0
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Yes4047¢36.5¢$14−$4.16$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Yes46825¢2.9¢$13−$104$0
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes3764.2¢3.1¢$11−$4.40$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?36¢454$16463%37
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?85¢300$25563%37
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?64¢229$14663%37
SELL YesWill Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2028?84¢170$14363%37
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?24¢546$13163%37
SELL YesWill the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?29¢467$13563%37
SELL YesWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?57¢9$5.3863%37
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?62¢125$7763%37
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?55¢182$10063%37
BUY YesUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?15¢300$4563%37
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?34¢515$17563%37
BUY NoVariational FDV above $500M one day after launch?13¢500$6563%37
BUY NoVariational FDV above $800M one day after launch?25¢23$5.7563%37
BUY NoVariational FDV above $1B one day after launch?39¢137$5463%37
BUY NoWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?7¢214$1563%37
BUY YesNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?44¢36$1663%37
BUY YesNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?43¢147$6363%37
BUY YesWill Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028?54¢53$2963%37
BUY YesWill Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028?52.8¢68$3663%37
BUY NoWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?41.8¢239$10063%37