PnL all-time−$2,916vol $1.85M
PnL 30d−$3,721gains $1,179 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$599win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate97.6%adj 94.6% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$11.4kcash n/a
Positions10 / 304open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 4h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$6,844below peak −$8,228Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 97.6% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$989Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? · Yesclosed+$591Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$343Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? · Noclosed+$274Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? · Noclosed+$204
Worst markets
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · Noopen−$5,231Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? · Yesclosed−$2,993Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$1,250Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$1,151Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? · Yesopen−$1,089
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.2k | 42.6¢ | 34.5¢ | $4,896 | −$1,151 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | No | 4,463 | 99.8¢ | 99.9¢ | $4,456 | +$2.23 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6,715 | 28.1¢ | 9.5¢ | $638 | −$1,250 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,600 | 26.1¢ | 15.5¢ | $403 | −$275 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,363 | 60.5¢ | 26.5¢ | $361 | −$463 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,000 | 19.6¢ | 11.5¢ | $345 | −$244 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | Yes | 500 | 79¢ | 32.5¢ | $162 | −$232 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | Yes | 774 | 64.6¢ | 20.5¢ | $159 | −$341 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 8,979 | 58.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,231 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | Yes | 1,000 | 54.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$545 | −$544 |
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