sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,510

Warren-Buffett

0x447…02a4
PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$128kvol $29.6M
PnL 30d−$13.2kgains $21.4k · losses $76.3k
PnL 7d−$1,994win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate69.8%adj 69.0% · 30d 43.9%
Open value$81.4kcash n/a
Positions54 / 1,574open / all-time
Max drawdown−65.4%of equity peak
Account age1.0ylast trade 13h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$126kbelow peak −$73.5kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

65/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale73
Adjusted win rateraw 69.8% · shrunk toward 50%73
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity35

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 54

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No15.3k69.9¢73¢$11.1k+$479+$68
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes10.0k85.8¢88.5¢$8,850+$271−$0.02
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?No8,25586.4¢97.6¢$8,053+$919$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes4,00084.1¢79.5¢$3,180−$184$0
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No3,00095.8¢99.6¢$2,987+$113$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes12.7k52.6¢20.5¢$2,595−$4,058+$39
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes4,00042.4¢62.5¢$2,500+$806+$298
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes5,00079.6¢48.8¢$2,438−$1,541$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No2,50093.9¢95.7¢$2,391+$44$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Yes3,75055.9¢62.5¢$2,344+$247+$485
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No2,50081.4¢93.5¢$2,337+$303+$213
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes11.9k22.1¢19.5¢$2,315−$314+$1,173
Iran coup attempt by December 31?Yes20.0k13.1¢11¢$2,200−$420+$13
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No3,00070¢63.5¢$1,905−$195$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No3,45757.9¢54.5¢$1,884−$117+$1.19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No2,00090¢92.5¢$1,850+$50$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?No7,41831.5¢24.5¢$1,817−$519$0
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No2,00580.8¢90.5¢$1,815+$194$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes92.9k5.4¢1.9¢$1,765−$3,260$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No2,00076.8¢74¢$1,480−$55$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes10.0k25.6¢14.5¢$1,456−$1,119$0
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes8,80910.6¢13.5¢$1,189+$255+$162
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes7,00016.7¢15.5¢$1,085−$85$0
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1,13786.9¢87.5¢$995+$6.57$0
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes5,30710.9¢18.5¢$982+$405+$178
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes3,70058.4¢21¢$777−$1,383$0
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes5,00015¢15.5¢$775+$25$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes1,34348.6¢56.5¢$759+$106$0
US strike on Colombia by December 31?No1,00077¢75¢$750−$20$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes1,26957.8¢57.9¢$734+$0.63+$31
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?Yes5,00014¢13.5¢$675−$25$0
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?No65094¢99.1¢$644+$33$0
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes3,75215.2¢15.1¢$565−$5.62$0
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes4,75014¢11¢$523−$143+$7.50
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes59471.2¢82.5¢$490+$67$0
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No47998¢98.7¢$473+$3.19$0
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Yes3,00046.3¢11.5¢$345−$1,045$0
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Yes4,00012.3¢8.5¢$340−$150−$81
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes5635.1¢59¢$332+$304$0
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No29285.7¢98.4¢$287+$37$0
Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Yes39852¢53.5¢$213+$5.97$0
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?No20099¢99.4¢$199+$0.70$0
Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberNothing17090¢94¢$160+$6.80$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes73523.6¢19¢$140−$34$0
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes27634¢44.5¢$123+$29$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes2,81615¢4.2¢$117−$306$0
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Yes1,00021¢10.5¢$105−$105+$150
Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Yes14544¢63¢$91+$27$0
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes2,00023¢4.1¢$82−$378$0
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?No5090¢91¢$46+$0.50$0
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes3,7302.7¢0.9¢$32−$68$0
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes6523¢38.5¢$25+$10$0
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Yes48610.3¢2.5¢$12−$38$0
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Yes7530.7¢14.5¢$11−$12+$7.08

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?16¢2,000$32070%65
BUY YesWill there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?52¢398$20770%65
BUY NoWill Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?85.7¢292$25070%65
BUY YesWill Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2.7¢3,730$9970%65
BUY YesWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?5.3¢404$2170%65
BUY YesWill Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?7¢3,092$21670%65
BUY NoWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?98¢479$46970%65
BUY NoTrump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?99¢200$19870%65
BUY YesWill the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?44¢145$6470%65
BUY NoWill the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?92¢457$42170%65
BUY NoIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?80.8¢2,005$1,62070%65
SELL YesIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?20.5¢817$16870%65
BUY YesMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?19¢2,294$43670%65
BUY YesMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?18¢1,056$19070%65
BUY NothingNothing Ever Happens: October90¢170$15370%65
BUY YesIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?27¢817$22170%65
BUY YesWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?78¢1,271$99170%65
SELL YesUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?0.1¢1,973$1.9770%65
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?0.1¢33.1k$3370%65
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?0.2¢20$0.0470%65