sharpside
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M8880

0x44d…e225@aconnor8880
WR 60+SportPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$9,813vol $1.25M
PnL 30d+$1,970gains $10.9k · losses $4,393
PnL 7d−$99win rate 7d 55.6%
Win rate69.1%adj 67.0% · 30d 55.0%
Open value$30.7kcash n/a
Positions49 / 211open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$5,051below peak −$156Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

53/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale57
Adjusted win rateraw 69.1% · shrunk toward 50%68
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable77
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? · Noclosed+$4,488Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-25? · Noclosed+$3,932Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$3,405Will England win on 2026-07-18? · Yesclosed+$3,175Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yesclosed+$2,514

Worst markets

New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 · Underclosed−$7,373Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$5,259Cabo Verde leading at halftime? · Noclosed−$4,215Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? · Noclosed−$3,569Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yesclosed−$3,559

Open positions · 49

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No5,32668.3¢71.5¢$3,808+$172$0
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes3,23982¢88.5¢$2,866+$212$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes2,62788.2¢90.5¢$2,377+$61$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No2,63179.9¢79¢$2,078−$24$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No2,66071.3¢69.5¢$1,848−$47$0
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No1,83278.8¢91¢$1,667+$223$0
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes1,34173.8¢98.1¢$1,316+$325+$8.45
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No1,42986.3¢84.5¢$1,208−$26$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,35758.5¢87¢$1,180+$387+$549
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes1,56369.2¢72.5¢$1,133+$52$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes1,42083.9¢78.5¢$1,114−$76$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No1,38372.4¢70.5¢$975−$26$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No98290¢85.5¢$840−$44$0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes77279.5¢89.5¢$691+$77$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No1,00065¢64.5¢$645−$5.00$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes1,00064.5¢62.5¢$625−$20$0
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No65088.1¢88.5¢$575+$2.75$0
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No90463¢63.5¢$574+$4.52$0
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?Yes72686.2¢77.5¢$563−$63$0
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No70073¢71.5¢$501−$11$0
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes42668¢88.5¢$377+$87$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo40092¢90.5¢$362−$6.00$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?No55962¢63¢$352+$5.83$0
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?Yes34574¢95.8¢$331+$75+$21
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes43671.3¢70.9¢$309−$1.96$0
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Yes93937.1¢32.5¢$305−$43$0
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Yes29260.6¢89.5¢$261+$84$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes31182.6¢79.5¢$247−$9.77$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes90028.7¢23.5¢$211−$46$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yes26076¢70.5¢$183−$14$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes43962.3¢41.5¢$182−$91$0
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes32052.6¢52¢$166−$1.80$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes17777.1¢88.5¢$157+$20$0
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Yes40036¢28.5¢$114−$30$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes22541¢42.5¢$96+$3.38$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes15659.1¢61.5¢$96+$3.70$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Yes10487.4¢85¢$88−$2.49$0
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?No10077¢77.5¢$78+$0.50$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No13738.9¢46.5¢$64+$10$0
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Yes6080¢88.5¢$53+$5.10$0
Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by December 31, 2026?No2576.1¢52.5¢$13−$5.86$0
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 12?No3048¢41¢$12−$2.08$0
Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $10 in 2026?No1577¢79.5¢$12+$0.36$0
Will Jan Hušbauer be the next Mayor of Prague?No597.9¢99.9¢$5.35+$0.10+$0.14
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?No12445¢4.3¢$5.28−$51$0
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Yes585¢83.5¢$4.17−$0.07$0
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes30.5¢3.5¢$0.11+$0.09+$7.07
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 12?Yes4945.7¢0.1¢$0.02−$22$0
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 7?No2434¢0¢$0−$9.71−$0.19

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?4.3¢600$2669%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?68¢144$9869%53
SELL NoWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?5¢56$2.7969%53
SELL NoWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?11¢314$3469%53
SELL NoWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?12¢455$5569%53
SELL YesWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?1.7¢360$6.1269%53
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 12?48¢30$1469%53
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 12?45¢5$2.2569%53
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 12?45¢5$2.2569%53
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 12?46¢5$2.3069%53
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 12?46¢29$1369%53
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 12?45¢5$2.2569%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?60¢10$6.0069%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?60¢10$6.0069%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?60¢10$6.0069%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?60¢10$6.0069%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?60¢10$6.0069%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?60¢10$6.0069%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?60¢10$6.0069%53
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?60¢10$6.0069%53