PnL all-time−$1,767vol $9.59M
PnL 30d+$175gains $194 · losses $151
PnL 7d+$64win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate57.1%adj 56.5% · 30d 71.4%
Open value$18.6kcash n/a
Positions9 / 223open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 5h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$1,862below peak −$5,919Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
36/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 57.1% · shrunk toward 50%41
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable78
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? · Noclosed+$4,608Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? · Yesclosed+$4,173Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? · Yesclosed+$3,984US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$3,290Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,780
Worst markets
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? · Yesclosed−$4,459Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$4,280Government shutdown on Saturday? · Yesclosed−$4,140US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · Yesclosed−$4,029Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$3,910
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 17.9k | 80.8¢ | 87.5¢ | $15.7k | +$1,185 | +$186 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 17.9k | 18.3¢ | 11.5¢ | $2,063 | −$1,217 | −$66 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 824 | 81.1¢ | 81.5¢ | $672 | +$3.23 | +$897 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? | No | 824 | 18.1¢ | 18¢ | $148 | −$1.21 | −$505 | |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | Yes | 61 | 80.1¢ | 81.5¢ | $50 | +$0.87 | +$1,323 | |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 42 | 17¢ | 18.5¢ | $7.72 | +$0.62 | −$1,260 | |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | Yes | 25 | 41¢ | 3.6¢ | $0.90 | −$9.35 | $0 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in July? | Yes | 3,763 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$48 | −$42 | |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 23 | 87¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | +$399 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s