sharpside
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QR1

0x45b…41a7
SharpWR 60+SportCulturePoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$4,119vol $196k
PnL 30d+$3,592gains $5,424 · losses $4,554
PnL 7d+$1,632win rate 7d 68.0%
Win rate66.0%adj 65.0% · 30d 62.1%
Open value$7,019cash n/a
Positions95 / 393open / all-time
Max drawdown−24.6%of equity peak
Account age52dlast trade 4m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$5,089below peak $0Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

70/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52
Adjusted win rateraw 66.0% · shrunk toward 50%63
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable86
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity75

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 95

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Tokenized stocks available on Robinhood by March 31, 2027?No1,12936.7¢52¢$587+$173+$46
Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?No1,12627.9¢42.5¢$478+$164+$259
Will Josh Allen rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?No45080.6¢84.5¢$380+$18+$62
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No93423.1¢39.5¢$369+$153+$12
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $427,000 and $437,000 on December 31?No41272¢87.5¢$360+$64+$78
Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027?Yes42161.7¢72.5¢$305+$45+$1.13
Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by December 31, 2026?Yes39652.1¢63¢$250+$43+$35
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 60 by October 31?No42845.3¢52¢$223+$29+$2.11
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Nikol Pashinyan in Turkmenistan?No22786.9¢90.5¢$206+$8.17$0
Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?No24481.2¢80¢$195−$3.04+$1.20
Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $423,000 on December 31?No24477.9¢77.5¢$189−$1.08+$3.27
Jumper listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?No48831.5¢38.5¢$188+$34$0
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?No63935.4¢28¢$179−$48$0
Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Guanajuato Congress election?No18879.2¢81¢$152+$3.41$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Gianni Infantino by October 31, 2026?No21965¢66.5¢$145+$3.22$0
Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes25961¢52.5¢$136−$22−$9.68
Jumper listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE?No46523.5¢28.5¢$132+$23$0
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Emomali Rahmon in Turkmenistan?No13484.6¢89.5¢$120+$6.56$0
Grok (Web) Outage by November 30, 2026?Yes24051¢47.5¢$114−$8.40$0
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?Yes18861.5¢59.5¢$112−$3.83$0
Jumper listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?No25040.6¢43.5¢$109+$7.14$0
Will AlloX launch a token by November 30, 2026?Yes23148.7¢44¢$102−$11+$7.56
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?No20337.2¢49.5¢$100+$25+$11
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?No19445.1¢50.5¢$98+$10$0
Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31?No15269.6¢63.5¢$96−$9.25$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026?Yes11281.3¢83.5¢$94+$2.46−$1.34
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B?No10674¢82¢$87+$8.48+$2.12
Will Lionel Messi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Yes1,5677.7¢5.5¢$86−$34+$13
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?No33041.8¢23.5¢$78−$60$0
Will "You Can See Everything" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 7m?No25927¢29.5¢$77+$6.49+$1.07
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?Yes24329¢30.5¢$74+$3.52+$26
Will Total Crypto Market Cap dip to 2T in 2026?No16253.4¢44.5¢$72−$14+$22
Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?No9068¢77¢$69+$8.11$0
Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?No8081.5¢86.5¢$69+$4.00$0
VALORANT Champions 2026: Any map to go 13-0?No9471.8¢68¢$64−$3.57$0
Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes67315.7¢8.5¢$57−$49+$56
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 65 by October 31?No8071.5¢69.5¢$56−$1.60$0
Will Mark Speakman be the next Premier of New South Wales?No8264.2¢67.5¢$56+$2.68$0
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be at least $521,000 on December 31?No5888¢80¢$47−$4.68+$0.18
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Delcy Rodriguez by October 31, 2026?No14027.1¢32.5¢$46+$7.50$0
Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026?Yes14029.1¢28.5¢$40−$0.90$0
Will the median home value in NYC be between $471,000 and $484,000 on December 31?Yes21015.7¢18¢$38+$4.80$0
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?Yes7637.8¢45.5¢$35+$5.87$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?Yes17643.2¢17¢$30−$46$0
Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?No5460.4¢55.5¢$30−$2.61$0
Will 84 or more maps be played at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes4051.5¢74.3¢$30+$9.10$0
Will any series go to five maps at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes5341¢56.5¢$30+$8.15$0
Will AlloX launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes5272¢54¢$28−$9.31$0
Will trent have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes4027.7¢57.1¢$23+$12$0
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027?Yes8035¢27.5¢$22−$6.00$0
Tokenized stocks available on Robinhood by June 30, 2027?No10416.7¢21¢$22+$4.47$0
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?No4065¢54¢$22−$4.40$0
Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No25647.3¢7.5¢$19−$102+$7.42
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 9, 2026?Yes14843.1¢12.3¢$18−$45+$1.75
Will Harwinder Sandhu win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?Yes14126.3¢12.5¢$18−$19$0
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31?No2072.5¢86.3¢$17+$2.72+$108
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Turkmenistan?No2586.6¢67.5¢$17−$4.79$0
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Ilham Aliyev in Turkmenistan?No2084¢75¢$15−$1.80$0
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17?No76316.5¢2¢$15−$111+$16
Will "Animals" be the top global Netflix movie this week?No20518.5¢6.5¢$13−$25$0
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 by October 31?No2062¢60¢$12−$0.40+$1.74
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Turkmenistan?No1987¢62¢$12−$4.79$0
Will AlloX launch a token by October 31, 2026?Yes3831¢30.5¢$12−$0.19$0
Will Canza launch a token by December 31, 2027?Yes1568¢76.5¢$11+$1.28+$8.73
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Yes5314.9¢21.5¢$11+$3.46$0
Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Yes2053¢54¢$11+$0.19$0
Will "Doing Life" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No13443.4¢7¢$9.35−$49$0
Will Conor McGregor rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?No1489.4¢61¢$8.75−$4.07−$1.97
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?Yes2028¢43.5¢$8.70+$3.10$0
Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5?Yes18051.8¢4.7¢$8.47−$85+$3.61
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?No2852¢28¢$7.73−$6.62+$3.50
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?No2056¢30.5¢$6.10−$5.10$0
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?Yes3124.8¢18¢$5.57−$2.11$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by October 31, 2026?Yes21310.8¢2.5¢$5.32−$18$0
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Guanajuato Congress election?Yes2021¢25.5¢$5.10+$0.90$0
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Yes540¢97.1¢$4.85+$2.85$0
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?Yes1819.1¢24.5¢$4.40+$0.97+$75
Will jawgemo have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026?No551.7¢93.5¢$4.33+$1.93+$45
Will Tom Holland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?Yes2045¢19.2¢$3.84−$5.16$0
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?Yes1523¢24¢$3.68+$0.15$0
Will a team from Pacific win VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes15523.2¢2.3¢$3.49−$32$0
Will Tommy Paul Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?No390¢96.9¢$3.23+$0.23−$1.73
Will Zendaya rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?Yes2036¢15.5¢$3.10−$4.10$0
Will Jacob Elordi be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?Yes722.6¢4.3¢$3.07+$1.19$0
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Alexander Lukashenko in Turkmenistan?No574¢56.5¢$2.94−$0.91$0
Will "The Social Reckoning" score at least 66 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes37324.1¢0.8¢$2.80−$87−$92
Will Zendaya be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes4800.3¢0.5¢$2.64+$1.20$0
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?Yes159.6¢12.3¢$1.80+$0.39$0
Will Bridgerton be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?Yes1630.9¢1.1¢$1.71+$0.31$0
Will Nancy Guthrie be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Yes122.2¢10¢$1.19+$0.93$0
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Yes26015.5¢0.3¢$0.65−$40$0
Will Nancy Guthrie be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Yes531¢0.6¢$0.32−$0.21$0
Will "The Social Reckoning" score at least 68 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes8329.3¢0.3¢$0.25−$24$0
Will Alexander Zverev be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Yes240.2¢0.3¢$0.07+$0.02$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Emmanuel Macron by October 31, 2026?No37167.8¢0¢$0−$251−$4.03

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoJair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?44.5¢146$6566%70Sharp
BUY NoWill Donald Trump publicly praise Delcy Rodriguez by October 31, 2026?27.1¢140$3866%70Sharp
SELL NoWill Nicholas Brendon rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?88.7¢107$9566%70Sharp
BUY NoWill MC win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?81.5¢80$6566%70Sharp
BUY NoWill PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?68¢90$6166%70Sharp
BUY YesIntuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?23¢15$3.5366%70Sharp
BUY NoWill PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Guanajuato Congress election?79.2¢188$14966%70Sharp
BUY YesWill Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Guanajuato Congress election?21¢20$4.2066%70Sharp
BUY YesWill PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Guanajuato Congress election?41¢52$2166%70Sharp
BUY YesWill Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?53.2¢121$6466%70Sharp
BUY YesWill Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?61.5¢188$11666%70Sharp
BUY NoWill the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?81.2¢264$21566%70Sharp
BUY NoWill OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?54¢41$2266%70Sharp
BUY NoWill OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?42.7¢152$6566%70Sharp
BUY NoMoody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?35.4¢639$22766%70Sharp
BUY NoWill Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Nikol Pashinyan in Turkmenistan?90.3¢62$5666%70Sharp
BUY NoTokenized stocks available on Robinhood by June 30, 2027?16.7¢104$1766%70Sharp
BUY NoTokenized stocks available on Robinhood by March 31, 2027?36.7¢1,421$52166%70Sharp
BUY NoWill Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Turkmenistan?87¢20$1766%70Sharp
BUY NoWill Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Turkmenistan?85¢5$4.2566%70Sharp