PnL all-time−$1,889vol $220k
PnL 30d+$36gains $0.60 · losses $0.71
PnL 7d+$36win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate67.2%adj 62.8% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$11.0kcash n/a
Positions10 / 68open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 3d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$1,846below peak −$2,366Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
30/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 67.2% · shrunk toward 50%57
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable61
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d87
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October? · Yesclosed+$1,183Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? · Noclosed+$1,027Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? · Yesclosed+$924Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 · Yesclosed+$747Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? · Noclosed+$372
Worst markets
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? · Yesopen−$2,128Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? · Noclosed−$1,736Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? · Yesclosed−$1,645Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? · Noclosed−$708Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? · Yesclosed−$368
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | No | 11.0k | 98.8¢ | 99.2¢ | $10.9k | +$39 | $0 | |
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | Yes | 70 | 96¢ | 92.9¢ | $65 | −$2.17 | $0 | |
| Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 3,131 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,128 | $0 | |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 717 | 38¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$272 | −$23 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? | No | 141 | 80.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$114 | −$0.88 | |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | Up | 117 | 86.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$101 | $0 | |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Switzerland | 51 | 61¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$31 | −$0.36 | |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 43 | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.74 | −$0.19 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 24? | Yes | 12 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23? | Yes | 9 | 32¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s