sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

johnnath1222

0x4b2…15df
1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$3,666vol $2.03M
PnL 30d−$574gains $54 · losses $51
PnL 7d+$142win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate49.9%adj 49.9% · 30d 40.0%
Open value$5,556cash n/a
Positions143 / 1,196open / all-time
Max drawdown−19.8%of equity peak
Account age2.9ylast trade 3h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$4,326below peak −$909Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

61/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale51
Adjusted win rateraw 49.9% · shrunk toward 50%25
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity80

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No80071¢69.5¢$556−$12$0
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No50074¢71.5¢$358−$13$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes2,83014.1¢12.5¢$354−$46+$4.73
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes35758.6¢70¢$250+$41$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1,49011.5¢16.5¢$246+$74+$2.38
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?Yes57033.7¢40.5¢$231+$39$0
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1,00019¢22.5¢$225+$35$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes31964¢63.5¢$203−$1.60$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 0%-5%?Yes40735.5¢41.5¢$169+$24$0
Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?Yes24157¢60¢$145+$7.23$0
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?No46451.7¢30¢$139−$100−$44
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes20068¢67.5¢$135−$1.00$0
Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes23556¢57¢$134+$2.35$0
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No21369.4¢61.5¢$131−$17+$4.00
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?Yes43825.8¢29¢$127+$14+$13
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No20061¢61.5¢$123+$1.00$0
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes46326.6¢26.5¢$123−$0.60$0
Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes19265¢63¢$121−$3.84$0
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?No15478.8¢77.5¢$119−$1.95$0
Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes14069¢72¢$101+$4.20$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 25%-30%?No10191.2¢99.4¢$100+$8.30$0
Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 1%?Yes43715.2¢21.5¢$94+$28$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 15%-18%?No10089¢84.4¢$84−$4.62$0
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Yes15850¢52.5¢$83+$3.96$0
Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election?Yes16549.8¢47¢$78−$4.70$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 10%-15%?No8183¢87¢$70+$3.24$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes31019.3¢21.5¢$67+$6.82+$17
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 3%-6%?Yes29626¢22¢$65−$12+$0.12
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes6677¢90.5¢$60+$8.91$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election?Yes16037¢35.5¢$57−$2.40$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 25%-30%?No5897.4¢95.9¢$56−$0.90$0
Will Democrats win the Ohio and Maine Senate seats, and Republicans win Iowa?Yes19919.8¢27¢$54+$14$0
Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes5718.5¢9.2¢$52+$3.75$0
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?Yes6252.8¢8.3¢$52+$35+$2.60
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes23519.5¢20.5¢$48+$2.36+$0.21
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes43814¢10.9¢$48−$14$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes31613.9¢13.5¢$43−$1.26$0
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?Yes7234¢38.5¢$28+$3.23$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No5936¢45.5¢$27+$5.61$0
Will Democrats win the Ohio Senate seat, and Republicans win Iowa and Maine?Yes1735.2¢14.4¢$25+$16$0
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by October 31?Yes21920¢11¢$24−$20+$7.01
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?No2765.8¢84¢$23+$4.92−$47
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No3077¢72.5¢$22−$1.35$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No3064¢68.5¢$21+$1.35$0
Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027?No2085.8¢97.9¢$20+$2.42$0
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?No2083¢97.3¢$19+$2.85$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No1894.6¢98.7¢$18+$0.72$0
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?No1889.8¢94.5¢$17+$0.86$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes23023.1¢6.5¢$15−$38$0
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Yes1962¢76.5¢$15+$2.81+$20
Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?No1586.5¢93.6¢$14+$1.05$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes9915¢13¢$13−$1.97$0
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No1280.2¢97.2¢$12+$2.12$0
Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes2065¢58.5¢$12−$1.30$0
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes8515¢13.5¢$11−$1.28$0
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?No1095.7¢98.9¢$9.88+$0.32$0
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes1082¢96.3¢$9.63+$1.43$0
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes1080¢96.2¢$9.62+$1.62$0
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?Yes1093¢94.4¢$9.44+$0.14$0
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes1084¢87.5¢$8.75+$0.35$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes6014.2¢14.1¢$8.46−$0.06$0
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?No889.7¢97.3¢$7.78+$0.61$0
Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 1%?Yes4616.6¢16.5¢$7.62−$0.03+$3.15
Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes1060¢63¢$6.22+$0.30$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 15%-20%?No694¢93.5¢$6.01−$0.03$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes5015¢10¢$5.00−$2.50$0
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No576¢96.9¢$4.84+$1.04$0
Iran Nuke before 2027?No588¢96.7¢$4.83+$0.43$0
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?No4619¢8.5¢$3.91−$4.83$0
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Yes7414¢5.3¢$3.88−$6.47$0
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?Yes4373.1¢0.8¢$3.49−$9.99+$13
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 15%-18%?Yes501.5¢5.3¢$2.65+$1.90$0
Will Republicans win the Iowa Governor election and Democrats win the Iowa Senate election?Yes1341.7¢1.8¢$2.35+$0.11$0
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes6150.4¢0.4¢$2.15−$0.31$0
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 6%-9%?Yes307¢6.9¢$2.06−$0.05$0
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?Yes2019¢8.5¢$1.70−$2.10$0
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes214¢5.9¢$1.24+$0.40$0
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 23?Yes1003.6¢0.9¢$0.90−$2.68$0
Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes1072.6¢0.6¢$0.64−$2.12$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes257.9¢23.5¢$0.41−$0.59$0
Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Michigan and Maine?Yes52.6¢4.1¢$0.20+$0.07$0
Will Democrats win the Texas and Michigan Senate seats, and Republicans win Maine?Yes110¢16.4¢$0.18+$0.07$0
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes641.5¢0.2¢$0.10−$0.85$0
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?Yes30.6¢0.2¢$0−$0.01+$6.59
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Yes9,0002.3¢0¢$0−$208−$1.20
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?No4,0001.6¢0¢$0−$66$0
Will Iran target Jordan by August 31, 2026?No2,0051.6¢0¢$0−$32$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?Yes2,0001.5¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes1,8211.3¢0¢$0−$23−$0.31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Yes1,70415.1¢0¢$0−$257−$8.56
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Yes1,6204.3¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Yes88916.8¢0¢$0−$149−$3.29
Will Ralph Norman win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?Yes8024.7¢0¢$0−$37−$0.58
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?Yes80111.7¢0¢$0−$94−$3.31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Yes8001.7¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes7009.4¢0¢$0−$66+$22
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%?Yes5003¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%?Yes5003¢0¢$0−$15+$11
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?Yes4241¢0¢$0−$4.24$0
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 10–15%?Yes4003.2¢0¢$0−$13$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 3%-6%?27.7¢75$2150%61
BUY YesWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?50¢158$7950%61
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 15%-18%?86.9¢20$1750%61
BUY YesWill Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?57¢241$13750%61
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?68¢200$13650%61
SELL YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?33.1¢236$7850%61
BUY YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?34.7¢224$7850%61
BUY YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?26¢654$17050%61
BUY YesWill Democrats win the Ohio and Maine Senate seats, and Republicans win Iowa?21.5¢132$2950%61
BUY YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?39¢244$9550%61
BUY YesWill the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?69¢140$9750%61
BUY YesWill the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?56¢82$4650%61
SELL YesWill the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 1%?18.3¢527$9750%61
SELL YesWill the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?37¢200$7450%61
BUY YesWill Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?25.8¢120$3150%61
SELL YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 9%-12%?21¢100$2150%61
BUY YesWill the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 1%?16.6¢573$9550%61
BUY YesWill the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 1%?15.2¢437$6650%61
BUY YesWill the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?65¢192$12550%61
BUY NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 15%-20%?94¢6$6.0450%61