PnL all-time+$8,869vol $60.4k
PnL 30d+$4,334gains $5,826 · losses $387
PnL 7d+$987win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate79.5%adj 75.2% · 30d 92.2%
Open value$159cash n/a
Positions5 / 122open / all-time
Max drawdown−4.5%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 2h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$10.4kbelow peak −$14Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
83/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale56
Adjusted win rateraw 79.5% · shrunk toward 50%88
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable70
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity96
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,105Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,052Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027? · Noclosed+$710Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? · Noclosed+$582Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$528
Worst markets
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30? · Yesopen−$217Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? · Noclosed−$204Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? · Noclosed−$136Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30? · Yesopen−$104Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.375T by September 30? · Yesopen−$96
Open positions · 5
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 251 | 26.2¢ | 40.8¢ | $102 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 85 | 61.5¢ | 67.1¢ | $57 | +$4.74 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30? | Yes | 962 | 16.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$156 | −$60 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.375T by September 30? | Yes | 197 | 47.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$94 | −$1.97 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30? | Yes | 36 | 28.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | −$94 |
Recent trades
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