PnL all-time−$605vol $1.41M
PnL 30d+$463gains $2,744 · losses $1,318
PnL 7d+$383win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate82.0%adj 79.9% · 30d 91.7%
Open value$31.3kcash n/a
Positions9 / 295open / all-time
Max drawdown−47.3%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 3h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$14.5kbelow peak −$12.3kOct 9
SharpScore inputs
58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 82.0% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable82
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity53
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$3,209Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? · Yesclosed+$3,065Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? · Yesclosed+$2,835Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? · Yesclosed+$2,461Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? · Yesclosed+$1,479
Worst markets
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? · Yesclosed−$19.4kWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yesopen−$14.1k Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May? · Noclosed−$6,028Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? · Noclosed−$5,331US military action against Iran before July? · Noclosed−$4,767
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | No | 9,189 | 90.8¢ | 97.6¢ | $8,968 | +$624 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | No | 7,324 | 94¢ | 93¢ | $6,811 | −$73 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 5,759 | 92¢ | 94.5¢ | $5,443 | +$144 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 5,190 | 93¢ | 90.5¢ | $4,697 | −$128 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | No | 3,028 | 97.5¢ | 97.3¢ | $2,945 | −$7.57 | $0 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 18.3k | 88.2¢ | 11¢ | $2,013 | −$14.1k | $0 | |
| Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026? | No | 400 | 96¢ | 98¢ | $392 | +$8.00 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026? | No | 5 | 53¢ | 95¢ | $4.75 | +$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5 | 85¢ | 77.5¢ | $3.88 | −$0.38 | $0 |
Recent trades
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