sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,472

SingletonFamilyFund

0x4c4…297b
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Polymarket
PnL all-time+$4,190vol $640k
PnL 30d+$6,576gains $4,642 · losses $2,816
PnL 7d−$84win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate48.2%adj 48.3% · 30d 37.8%
Open value$16.1kcash n/a
Positions80 / 422open / all-time
Max drawdown−50.9%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$12.1kbelow peak −$2,197Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

54/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52
Adjusted win rateraw 48.2% · shrunk toward 50%21
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable88
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d95
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity49

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 80

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes11.1k21.2¢70.8¢$7,861+$5,508+$1,016
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No4,36560.5¢41.5¢$1,812−$829+$201
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?Yes2,29448.8¢43.5¢$998−$122+$13
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes2,30241.7¢42.5¢$978+$20−$5.14
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No1,05054.8¢66.5¢$698+$123+$42
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No56064.4¢83.5¢$467+$107+$364
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?No50064.3¢66.5¢$333+$11+$13
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?No36177.2¢91.9¢$332+$53+$22
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No50058.6¢57.5¢$288−$5.68+$7.01
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No40057.1¢60.5¢$242+$14+$1.89
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes80034.4¢29.9¢$239−$36+$1.57
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?No37562.5¢63.4¢$238+$3.19$0
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No25068.2¢89¢$223+$52+$52
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes24655.4¢65.5¢$161+$25$0
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes22561¢70.5¢$158+$21$0
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes34013.2¢40¢$136+$91+$19
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No46214.8¢23.1¢$107+$38+$25
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes34421¢28.5¢$98+$26+$34
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?No9486¢89.5¢$84+$3.29$0
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes21534¢38.5¢$83+$9.66+$21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes27327.3¢27.6¢$75+$0.82−$140
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?No15551¢46.5¢$72−$7.00$0
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢40.8¢$67+$63$0
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢32.9¢$54+$50$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?No8070.2¢67¢$54−$2.60$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,550,000 and 1,600,000?No2799.9¢99.9¢$27−$0.01$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be 1,600,000 or more?No2799.3¢98.6¢$27−$0.20$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?No2795¢92.4¢$25−$0.72$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?No2774.1¢75.1¢$20+$0.24$0
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢9.5¢$16+$11$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?Yes13533.3¢10.2¢$14−$31−$4.76
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes872.5¢12¢$10+$8.27+$25
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes809.1¢12.5¢$10+$2.70$0
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes2603.6¢3.3¢$8.45−$0.85$0
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes1125.6¢7.6¢$8.44+$2.13$0
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢5.1¢$8.35+$4.25$0
Will Meituan be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢4¢$6.46+$2.37$0
Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢3.9¢$6.38+$2.29$0
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes8310¢7.5¢$6.21−$2.10$0
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes557.9¢10.5¢$5.73+$1.42$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000?No770¢79.5¢$5.68+$0.68$0
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢3.5¢$5.65+$1.55$0
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes556¢10.1¢$5.51+$2.21$0
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes2733.8¢1.8¢$4.78−$5.52$0
Will Mistral be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢2.9¢$4.75+$0.65$0
Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢2.5¢$4.01−$0.09−$0.28
Will Nvidia be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢1.9¢$3.03−$1.07$0
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes1623.3¢1.8¢$2.83−$2.48$0
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes633.7¢3.1¢$1.91−$0.39$0
Will Tencent be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢1.2¢$1.88−$2.21$0
Will Baidu be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢1¢$1.55−$2.54$0
Will Microsoft be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢0.8¢$1.23−$2.87$0
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢11.5¢$1.15+$0.85$0
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢0.5¢$0.90−$3.20$0
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢6.3¢$0.63+$0.32$0
Will MiniMax be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢0.3¢$0.41−$3.69$0
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢4¢$0.40+$0.09$0
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢3.9¢$0.39+$0.08$0
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢3.6¢$0.36+$0.05$0
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢3.4¢$0.34+$0.03$0
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes731.8¢0.5¢$0.33−$0.98$0
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢2.4¢$0.24−$0.07$0
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢2¢$0.20−$0.11$0
Will Amazon be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢0.1¢$0.08−$4.01$0
Will Bytedance be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢0.1¢$0.08−$4.01$0
Will StepFun be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes1642.5¢0.1¢$0.08−$4.01$0
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes93¢0.9¢$0.08−$0.20$0
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢0.5¢$0.06−$0.25$0
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢0.5¢$0.06−$0.25$0
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢0.5¢$0.05−$0.26$0
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes43¢1.1¢$0.04−$0.08$0
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes103¢0.4¢$0.04−$0.27$0
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes73¢0.5¢$0.03−$0.18$0
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes83¢0.4¢$0.03−$0.22$0
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes53¢0.5¢$0.03−$0.13$0
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes63¢0.5¢$0.03−$0.16$0
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes23.1¢0.9¢$0.02−$0.04$0
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes33.1¢0.4¢$0.01−$0.08$0
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Yes2824.4¢0¢$0−$6.83+$40
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes2429¢0¢$0−$6.95$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?27.3¢273$7448%54
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?26.7¢461$12348%54
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?27.2¢1,022$27948%54
SELL NoWill any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?57¢185$10548%54
BUY NoWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?86¢94$8148%54
BUY NoWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?70.3¢80$5648%54
BUY NoWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?51¢155$7948%54
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?37.1¢193$7248%54
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?36.5¢70$2648%54
SELL NoWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?63¢263$16648%54
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?44.7¢70$3148%54
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?32¢722$23148%54
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?34.4¢993$34248%54
BUY YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?41.7¢2,104$87748%54
SELL NoWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?82¢66$5548%54
SELL NoWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?72¢164$11848%54
SELL NoWill OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?93¢151$14048%54
SELL NoWill any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?84¢20$1748%54
SELL YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?51¢500$25548%54
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?39¢572$22348%54