PnL all-time+$2,806vol $87.3k
PnL 30d+$110gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$14win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate75.8%adj 71.2% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$2,813cash n/a
Positions9 / 100open / all-time
Max drawdown−40.5%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 8mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$3,077below peak −$195Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
51/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale49
Adjusted win rateraw 75.8% · shrunk toward 50%78
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable67
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity60
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August? · Yesclosed+$891Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? · Yesclosed+$766Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? · Yesclosed+$449Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31? · Noclosed+$391Will India invade Pakistan before July? · Noclosed+$319
Worst markets
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? · Noclosed−$775North Korea missile test before May? · Noclosed−$378 Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May? · Noclosed−$350Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yesopen−$312Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? · Noclosed−$255
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 700 | 89.6¢ | 97.8¢ | $684 | +$57 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | No | 637 | 89¢ | 99¢ | $630 | +$63 | $0 | |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | No | 706 | 85¢ | 88.5¢ | $625 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 512 | 83¢ | 94.5¢ | $484 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | No | 263 | 76¢ | 95.5¢ | $251 | +$51 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? | No | 100 | 83¢ | 96.7¢ | $97 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | No | 42 | 95.2¢ | 99.7¢ | $42 | +$1.89 | $0 | |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 519 | 60.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$312 | $0 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 282 | 71¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$200 | $0 |
Recent trades
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