sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,030

PashaAsOracul

0x4fb…f319
WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$9,153vol $172k
PnL 30d−$9,123gains $6,684 · losses $256
PnL 7d+$238win rate 7d 70.0%
Win rate70.9%adj 65.3% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$13.7kcash n/a
Positions26 / 81open / all-time
Max drawdown−39.7%of equity peak
Account age2molast trade 11h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$8,169below peak −$890Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

55/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale57
Adjusted win rateraw 70.9% · shrunk toward 50%63
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable64
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity60

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 25

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No6,17086.1¢93.5¢$5,769+$458$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No2,53279¢84.5¢$2,139+$139$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No2,47773.3¢83.5¢$2,068+$253+$1,225
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No69957.2¢54.5¢$381−$19$0
Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% in 2026?Yes35185.5¢94.8¢$332+$32$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes4,43123.3¢6.5¢$288−$747+$27
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Yes77333.6¢27¢$209−$51$0
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Yes10793.8¢92.9¢$99−$1.01$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes13972¢70.5¢$98−$2.08$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes15266¢62.5¢$95−$5.30$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes15465¢61.5¢$95−$5.38$0
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?Yes6993¢89¢$61−$2.75$0
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes59619.5¢7¢$42−$74$0
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026?Yes3094.7¢99.2¢$29+$1.34$0
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Yes2792.4¢84¢$23−$2.26$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes3165¢63.5¢$20−$0.46$0
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Yes1474¢81.5¢$11+$1.01$0
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 11, 2026?Yes1195¢89.5¢$9.42−$0.58$0
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?Yes1565¢37.5¢$5.77−$4.23$0
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 15?Yes3641.6¢11.5¢$4.14−$11$0
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes43741.5¢0¢$0−$181−$2.75
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on September 4, 2026?Yes42437.5¢0¢$0−$159−$3.97
Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes5834.7¢0¢$0−$20−$0.52
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?Yes3122.3¢0¢$0−$6.93−$16
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?Yes2318.7¢0¢$0−$4.25−$32

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?93¢2,151$2,00071%55
BUY NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?57.2¢699$40071%55
SELL YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?84¢172$14471%55
SELL YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?91.7¢50$4671%55
SELL YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?95.2¢50$4871%55
SELL YesWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?77¢30$2371%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?91¢110$10071%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?91.4¢109$10071%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 11, 2026?95¢11$1071%55
BUY Yes2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House65¢77$5071%55
BUY Yes2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House65¢77$5071%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?93¢54$5071%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026?95¢21$2071%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?93¢15$1471%55
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?87¢3,448$3,00071%55
BUY YesNATO downs another Russian drone by October 15?35¢14$5.0071%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?94.2¢21$2071%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026?93.8¢9$8.0071%55
BUY YesWill Russia target Kyiv on October 6, 2026?93.9¢33$3171%55
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?65¢31$2071%55