sharpside
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0x503…946d

0x503…946d
WR 60+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$2,622vol $1.36M
PnL 30d+$1,480gains $5,304 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$1,071win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate61.0%adj 60.6% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$25.8kcash n/a
Positions45 / 565open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.1ylast trade 4h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$4,583below peak −$15.6kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

38/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 61.0% · shrunk toward 50%52
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 45

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No6,00033.9¢93¢$5,580+$3,545+$799
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No10.0k55.7¢51.6¢$5,155−$413$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No6,01638¢85.5¢$5,144+$2,858$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No6,50068¢69.5¢$4,517+$97$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes15.0k19.5¢14.8¢$2,213−$713$0
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?No1,65379.5¢92.5¢$1,529+$215$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes9,0846.2¢6.5¢$586+$23−$69
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes59556.2¢87.9¢$523+$188$0
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?No32874.9¢83.8¢$275+$29−$677
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes65715¢16.5¢$108+$9.86$0
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Yes60056¢16¢$96−$240$0
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Yes2,00025.6¢0.8¢$16−$496$0
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?No1597.7¢96.3¢$14−$0.21$0
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceMexico35.0k49¢0¢$0−$17.1k−$262
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes20.0k15.1¢0¢$0−$3,013+$328
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Yes15.3k30.3¢0¢$0−$4,638$0
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Yes14.0k18¢0¢$0−$2,519−$0.77
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Yes8,50036.6¢0¢$0−$3,109$0
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes6,6860.1¢0¢$0−$6.68−$0.27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes5,00049¢0¢$0−$2,450−$62
Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in July?No4,02119.6¢0¢$0−$788−$16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes4,00029¢0¢$0−$1,160$0
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes3,9450.1¢0¢$0−$3.94−$0.16
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?No3,76835¢0¢$0−$1,319−$68
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes3,66154.1¢0¢$0−$1,979$0
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Yes3,23850.4¢0¢$0−$1,631$0
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes3,2227¢0¢$0−$226−$0.05
Will Trump say "Fraud" or "Fraudulent" during Speech to the Nation?No3,06038.6¢0¢$0−$1,180−$29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No3,00012¢0¢$0−$360$0
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Speech to the Nation?No2,81437.3¢0¢$0−$1,050−$25
Will Trump say "China" during Speech to the Nation?No2,73222.6¢0¢$0−$617+$154
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes2,09539¢0¢$0−$817$0
Trump renames AI by September 30?No2,00030¢0¢$0−$600−$6.84
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Speech to the Nation?No1,95271.9¢0¢$0−$1,403−$16
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?Yes1,50013.8¢0¢$0−$208−$8.94
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?No1,25021¢0¢$0−$263−$8.29
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?No1,1491.5¢0¢$0−$17−$0.68
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?Yes1,00035¢0¢$0−$350−$11
Will Trump say "Transgender" during remarks in New York?No61546.8¢0¢$0−$288−$6.12
Will Trump say "Russia" during Speech to the Nation?No50457.7¢0¢$0−$291−$4.92
Will Trump say "Communist" during Speech to the Nation?No38245.5¢0¢$0−$174−$3.77
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?No25059¢0¢$0−$148−$3.02
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?No4931¢0¢$0−$15−$2,727
Will the announcers say "Wind" or "Windy" during the Patriots vs Seahawks game?Yes477¢0¢$0−$3.26−$0.12
Will Club Independiente Petrolero vs. CDOriente Petrolero end in a draw?Yes550¢0¢$0−$2.50$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Trump say "Ammunition" this week?25.6¢2,000$51261%38
BUY YesWill Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?24.4¢3,000$73161%38
SELL NoWill Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?81.1¢1,898$1,53961%38
BUY NoWill Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?74.9¢5,226$3,91361%38
BUY NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?68¢6,500$4,42061%38
BUY NoTrump renames AI by September 30?30¢815$24461%38
SELL YesClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?6.1¢20.9k$1,27661%38
BUY NoCNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?21¢1,250$26361%38
SELL YesUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?96.2¢2,211$2,12861%38
BUY YesWill the announcers say "Wind" or "Windy" during the Patriots vs Seahawks game?7¢47$3.2661%38
BUY NoWill there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?37¢690$25561%38
BUY YesWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?35¢1,000$35061%38
BUY YesWill Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?13.8¢1,500$20861%38
BUY NoWill Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?59¢250$14861%38
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?81¢330$26761%38
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?81¢1,000$81061%38
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?81¢1,000$81061%38
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?81¢1,000$81061%38
BUY YesLAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?7¢10$0.7061%38
BUY YesUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?59¢288$17061%38