sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

adasol

0x529…7b99
PnL 10k+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$17.1kvol $48.2M
PnL 30d+$4,469gains $4,816 · losses $726
PnL 7d+$1,364win rate 7d 73.3%
Win rate68.0%adj 67.3% · 30d 69.1%
Open value$10.5kcash n/a
Positions66 / 553open / all-time
Max drawdown−34.5%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$18.5kbelow peak $0Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

70/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale60
Adjusted win rateraw 68.0% · shrunk toward 50%68
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity66

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yesclosed+$2,097Iran closes its airspace by May 24? · Yesclosed+$1,394US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Noopen+$1,082Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yesclosed+$1,066Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$1,057

Worst markets

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$2,306US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$2,280Epstein suicide note released by May 8? · Yesclosed−$2,151Starmer out by May 15, 2026? · Yesclosed−$968Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$759

Open positions · 66

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No3,53194.8¢95.6¢$3,376+$27+$184
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes1,08896.5¢97.9¢$1,065+$15$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1,80356.3¢57.5¢$1,037+$22+$181
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Yes1,25850.8¢57¢$717+$78+$146
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No95352.2¢57.5¢$548+$50+$31
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No85452.4¢57.5¢$491+$44+$14
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?No53465.2¢70.5¢$376+$28+$19
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No42854.8¢59¢$253+$18+$16
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No28183.1¢86.5¢$243+$9.46+$484
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No26484.6¢85.5¢$226+$2.42+$1,080
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Yes20.8k1.2¢1.1¢$219−$31+$108
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes20592¢93.5¢$192+$3.07$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes99915.9¢14.5¢$145−$14+$31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes2,2056.1¢6.5¢$143+$8.98+$15
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes27134.4¢34.5¢$93+$0.36−$11
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No13482.2¢69.5¢$93−$17$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No15943.7¢55.5¢$88+$19+$500
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes45412.8¢14.5¢$66+$7.57+$38
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No9264.3¢65.5¢$60+$1.12$0
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?Yes7269¢83.5¢$60+$10$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?No8626.3¢6.5¢$56+$1.66+$267
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No7672¢73.5¢$56+$1.12$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes12447.4¢44.5¢$55−$3.55+$14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes30215.7¢17.5¢$53+$5.32+$90
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?No6363.2¢82.3¢$52+$12$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes6,0040.8¢0.9¢$51+$5.43+$201
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes7963¢63.5¢$50+$0.40$0
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?No5378.1¢90¢$48+$6.28$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes11659.1¢41¢$48−$21−$13
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?No4086.6¢92.5¢$37+$2.35$0
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?No4972¢68.5¢$33−$1.70+$2.88
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No22813.3¢14.5¢$33+$2.81+$28
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Yes12747.2¢25.5¢$32−$27−$8.74
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No3964.2¢72.5¢$28+$3.20+$91
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes6063.6¢4.4¢$27+$4.95+$139
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?No6603.7¢3.9¢$26+$1.33+$30
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No3049.8¢82.5¢$25+$9.84$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes4054.2¢59.5¢$24+$2.13+$9.47
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No6527.5¢36.5¢$24+$5.86+$6.92
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No3656.8¢57.5¢$21+$0.25$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Yes10515.7¢20¢$21+$4.54+$10
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?Yes15624.6¢10.5¢$16−$22+$1.08
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No2565.1¢65.5¢$16+$0.10$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?No6902.3¢2.1¢$14−$1.10+$17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No3334.4¢43¢$14+$2.80+$18
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes15841.3¢8.5¢$13−$52$0
Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? Yes5022¢25.5¢$13+$1.75$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?Yes1663.1¢72.5¢$11+$1.47+$23
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?No1060.5¢85.5¢$8.66+$2.53+$62
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?No2049¢43¢$8.63−$1.20+$0.04
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes4346.9¢17.5¢$7.52−$13$0
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes3518.9¢19.5¢$6.82+$0.22$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?Yes9090.6¢0.8¢$6.82+$1.04+$7.23
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes3131.6¢1.7¢$5.16+$0.16$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2382.1¢2.1¢$4.88−$0.12$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?Yes15647.1¢2.9¢$4.46−$69−$17
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes1038.2¢42.5¢$4.25+$0.43+$10
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes5147.5¢8¢$4.11−$20$0
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2,5000.2¢0.2¢$3.75−$1.25$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No383¢99.2¢$3.22+$0.52+$19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?No924.6¢34¢$2.94+$0.82+$7.48
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?Yes6237.9¢4¢$2.49−$21$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes1413.7¢9.5¢$1.31−$0.58−$0.44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No536¢21.5¢$1.07−$0.72$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes1927¢5.5¢$1.02−$3.98$0
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes150¢89.5¢$0.90+$0.40+$6.56

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2.1¢143$3.0168%70
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2.1¢250$5.2568%70
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2.1¢488$1068%70
SELL YesWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?32¢10$3.2068%70
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2¢273$5.4668%70
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2¢500$1068%70
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2.1¢254$5.3368%70
BUY YesWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?15.7¢58$9.0068%70
SELL YesWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?34¢9$2.8968%70
SELL YesWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?34¢45$1568%70
SELL YesWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?65¢27$1868%70
SELL YesWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?33¢71$2368%70
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2.2¢227$5.0068%70
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?4.1¢211$8.6568%70
BUY NoWill Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?75¢27$2068%70
BUY NoWill Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?66¢21$1468%70
BUY NoWill Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?59¢51$3068%70
BUY NoWill Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?58¢52$3068%70
BUY NoWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?58¢52$3068%70
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?97.3¢514$50068%70