PnL all-time+$319vol $174k
PnL 30d+$586gains $424 · losses $380
PnL 7d+$586win rate 7d 45.2%
Win rate48.1%adj 48.5% · 30d 45.2%
Open value$375cash n/a
Positions9 / 90open / all-time
Max drawdown−14.5%of equity peak
Account age59dlast trade 36m ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$1,072below peak $0Oct 11
SharpScore inputs
51/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale36
Adjusted win rateraw 48.1% · shrunk toward 50%21
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable65
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity86
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Noclosed+$147Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31? · Noclosed+$83Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? · Noclosed+$82Will Yashar win 26-27 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? · Yesclosed+$62Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30? · Yesclosed+$59
Worst markets
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? · Yesclosed−$66Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? · Yesclosed−$62Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$50Will Sutume Kebede win the 2026 Women's Chicago Marathon? · Yesclosed−$47Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yesclosed−$41
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sharon Lokedi win the 2026 Women's Chicago Marathon? | Yes | 387 | 18.4¢ | 28.5¢ | $110 | +$39 | −$6.37 | |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? | No | 173 | 29.6¢ | 41¢ | $71 | +$20 | +$1.85 | |
| Will none of the listed platforms list tokenized stocks in the US by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 342 | 12.2¢ | 17.8¢ | $61 | +$19 | +$23 | |
| Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | No | 480 | 8.5¢ | 12.5¢ | $60 | +$19 | +$10 | |
| Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 134 | 33.4¢ | 30¢ | $40 | −$4.62 | −$5.39 | |
| Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | No | 241 | 6.1¢ | 6.3¢ | $15 | +$0.34 | −$0.40 | |
| Ukraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027? | No | 15 | 84¢ | 84.5¢ | $13 | +$0.07 | $0 | |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 20 | 23.1¢ | 21¢ | $4.20 | −$0.41 | +$22 | |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2028? | Yes | 2 | 29.7¢ | 33.5¢ | $0.65 | +$0.07 | +$9.69 |
Recent trades
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