sharpside
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Traders/Rank #412

Arbguy

0x53e…6177
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$487kvol $63.3M
PnL 30d+$21.4kgains $41.3k · losses $0
PnL 7d+$25.6kwin rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate43.4%adj 43.7% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$253kcash n/a
Positions29 / 1,002open / all-time
Max drawdown−76.7%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 19h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$442kbelow peak −$231kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

51/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale81
Adjusted win rateraw 43.4% · shrunk toward 50%9
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity23

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 29

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1.62M0.7¢2.3¢$37.2k+$26.4k$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No35.4k82.6¢90.5¢$32.0k+$2,787−$360
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes73.7k44.6¢37.5¢$27.6k−$5,199$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes155k22.6¢16.5¢$25.6k−$9,428−$5,568
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes57.5k48.2¢35.5¢$20.4k−$7,296+$404
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes19.6k83¢90.5¢$17.7k+$1,476−$2,653
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No19.3k76¢84.5¢$16.3k+$1,637$0
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes893k1.3¢1.8¢$15.6k+$3,688$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No10.0k80¢90¢$9,000+$1,000$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes155k11¢5.5¢$8,538−$8,545−$2,024
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes26.6k41¢28.5¢$7,592−$3,330$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No17.8k34¢42.5¢$7,561+$1,512$0
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes50.0k87¢14.5¢$7,245−$36.2k$0
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes107k5.1¢5.9¢$6,242+$779$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No12.8k49.8¢37.5¢$4,799−$1,569$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes88.5k31.6¢5.1¢$4,470−$23.5k+$3.04
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No12.7k36.3¢29.5¢$3,755−$862$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes46483.1¢87.3¢$405+$20$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes12.2k8.9¢2.3¢$273−$806+$2,314
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No38225¢18.5¢$71−$25$0
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes2,6140.8¢0.8¢$20−$1.31$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes5641¢30.5¢$17−$5.87$0
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?No862.6¢99.9¢$8.44+$3.15$0
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yes8726.2¢5¢$4.36−$18$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes74.4k1.4¢0¢$0−$1,059−$49
Giants vs. RamsGiants30.0k27¢0¢$0−$8,100$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No25.2k21¢0¢$0−$5,292$0
Spread: Rams (-7.5)Giants19.1k56¢0¢$0−$10.7k$0
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Yes12.9k23.5¢0¢$0−$3,030−$93

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?36¢26.5k$9,53143%51
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?79¢12.0k$9,48043%51
BUY GiantsGiants vs. Rams27¢30.0k$8,10043%51
BUY GiantsSpread: Cowboys (-3.5)54¢15.0k$8,12643%51
BUY GiantsCowboys vs. Giants39¢19.5k$7,60543%51
BUY YesClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?16¢40.0k$6,40043%51
BUY YesIsrael closes its airspace by September 30?73¢2,332$1,70243%51
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?4¢11.0k$44143%51
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?49¢43.9k$21.5k43%51Whale
BUY NoUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?6¢10.2k$61243%51
BUY YesClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?21¢174$3743%51
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?17¢5,341$90843%51
BUY NoUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?8¢12.9k$1,03243%51
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?1.6¢14.5k$23243%51
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?46¢9,720$4,47143%51
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?1.5¢9,500$14143%51
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?47¢4,860$2,28443%51
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?49¢363$17843%51
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?1.5¢9,000$13943%51
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?47¢4,124$1,93843%51