sharpside
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Traders/Rank #18,308

Blind Chicken

0x542…a81b
1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$23.6kvol $22.9M
PnL 30d+$1,413gains $0 · losses $10
PnL 7d+$1,311win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate26.6%adj 27.5% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$5,476cash n/a
Positions112 / 891open / all-time
Max drawdown−54.9%of equity peak
Account age5.8ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$22.3kbelow peak −$16.9kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

32/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 26.6% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable98
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d95
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity45

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes101k0.9¢1.8¢$1,812+$932$0
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes50.0k2.4¢1.7¢$825−$360−$3,012
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes75.8k0.4¢1¢$758+$479$0
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes25.0k1.9¢2.2¢$537+$58−$1,108
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes44.5k0.7¢1.1¢$468+$157$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes10.0k2.6¢2.1¢$205−$53−$900
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes18.0k0.9¢1¢$171+$9.01$0
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes106k0.2¢0.2¢$159−$53$0
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes250k0.1¢0.1¢$125−$125$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?Yes82113¢11.5¢$94−$12$0
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes15.0k0.3¢0.4¢$53+$7.51$0
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?Yes45011.2¢9.5¢$43−$7.75$0
Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes10.0k0.2¢0.4¢$40+$20$0
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes23.8k0.1¢0.2¢$36+$12$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes5225.1¢6.2¢$32+$5.23$0
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes5,0000.4¢0.5¢$28+$7.50$0
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes50.5k0.3¢0.1¢$25−$128$0
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat?Yes3903.2¢3.3¢$13+$0.19$0
Will James Talarico be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?Yes2639¢4.5¢$12−$12$0
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes3,6290.2¢0.3¢$9.07+$1.84$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes5020¢17.5¢$8.75−$1.25$0
Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?No1673.3¢3.1¢$5.10−$0.35$0
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes10.0k0.1¢0.1¢$5.00−$4.99$0
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,5001.1¢0.3¢$3.75−$13$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes317.7¢96.4¢$3.28+$2.67+$556
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1701.6¢1.7¢$2.80+$0.12$0
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,0000.3¢0.3¢$2.50−$0.50$0
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1,2420.5¢0.1¢$0.62−$5.54$0
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?Yes651k0.1¢0¢$0−$933+$711
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?Yes583k0.3¢0¢$0−$1,573+$5.80
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?Yes501k0.1¢0¢$0−$738$0
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Yes376k0.2¢0¢$0−$707+$124
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?Yes200k0.2¢0¢$0−$491−$414
Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?Yes127k0.1¢0¢$0−$126−$7.91
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes113k0.4¢0¢$0−$459−$77
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes100k0.1¢0¢$0−$100−$0.01
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?Yes99.0k0.6¢0¢$0−$625−$21
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?Yes98.8k0.4¢0¢$0−$398$0
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes95.0k0.5¢0¢$0−$488−$26
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?Yes91.5k0.2¢0¢$0−$166−$79
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes89.9k0.2¢0¢$0−$221−$8.75
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes53.9k0.5¢0¢$0−$261−$13
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?Yes50.0k0.1¢0¢$0−$50−$244
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No48.2k1.5¢0¢$0−$718−$28
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes45.3k1¢0¢$0−$443−$17
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15?Yes43.3k0.2¢0¢$0−$107$0
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes41.1k1.5¢0¢$0−$604−$235
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Yes32.6k3.7¢0¢$0−$1,219−$119
US forces enter Iran by March 7?Yes14.9k0.5¢0¢$0−$74$0
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?Yes14.0k3.5¢0¢$0−$487$0
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?Yes12.0k5.2¢0¢$0−$625+$100
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?No10.3k9.6¢0¢$0−$988−$86
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes10.1k0.2¢0¢$0−$20−$0.81
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No10.0k3.2¢0¢$0−$324+$68
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No10.0k3.9¢0¢$0−$389−$8.26
Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No9,0084.6¢0¢$0−$413−$20
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No8,4603.2¢0¢$0−$274+$15
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes8,3301.5¢0¢$0−$126−$6.19
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?Yes6,8790.1¢0¢$0−$6.88$0
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No6,7413.3¢0¢$0−$222+$19
Will Chellie Pingree be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes6,2870.1¢0¢$0−$9.37−$0.30
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?Yes6,0372.7¢0¢$0−$166−$8.07
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No5,8853.5¢0¢$0−$206−$17
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No5,7363.1¢0¢$0−$179−$8.61
Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?Yes5,3070.2¢0¢$0−$11−$0.53
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?No5,1721.3¢0¢$0−$65−$20
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?No5,0004.2¢0¢$0−$209−$225
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Yes5,0000.9¢0¢$0−$45−$1.65
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No4,7501.8¢0¢$0−$84$0
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes4,2718.2¢0¢$0−$350$0
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?Yes3,7538.6¢0¢$0−$323$0
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No3,7373.5¢0¢$0−$130−$6.22
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes3,4971¢0¢$0−$35−$1.38
Will Jordan Wood be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes3,0661.1¢0¢$0−$35−$1.37
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?No2,9894.1¢0¢$0−$122−$4.68
Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?Yes2,7834.5¢0¢$0−$126−$4.77
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes2,5003.4¢0¢$0−$85−$2.46
Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes2,2500.1¢0¢$0−$2.25−$0.09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes2,0894.1¢0¢$0−$86$0
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Yes2,00029.2¢0¢$0−$585−$39
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?Yes1,9990.7¢0¢$0−$14$0
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes1,6772.4¢0¢$0−$41−$1.60
Will Aaron Frey be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes1,4900.1¢0¢$0−$1.49−$0.06
Will Paige Loud be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes1,4610.1¢0¢$0−$1.46−$0.06
Will Dan Kleban be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes1,4401.4¢0¢$0−$20−$0.80
Israeli parliament dissolved before August?Yes1,3641.7¢0¢$0−$23$0
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Yes1,1190.4¢0¢$0−$4.94−$0.20
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1,0002.5¢0¢$0−$25+$13
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No7631.1¢0¢$0−$8.39−$0.33
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?No7452¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?No7270.3¢0¢$0−$2.43$0
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No50023¢0¢$0−$115−$3.54
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?Yes5004.5¢0¢$0−$23$0
Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025?Yes4900.7¢0¢$0−$3.52−$209
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes4652.7¢0¢$0−$13−$133
Will 61 or more U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?Yes4411.2¢0¢$0−$5.30$0
Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?Yes4003¢0¢$0−$12$0
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes3565.2¢0¢$0−$19$0
Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?No25313.8¢0¢$0−$35−$1.20
Will Catherine Connolly win by 0–5%?Yes2001.4¢0¢$0−$2.80$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?13¢821$10727%32
BUY YesClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?5.2¢250$1327%32
BUY YesClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?5.1¢272$1427%32
BUY YesTaylor Swift pregnant before 2027?12¢100$1227%32
BUY YesWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.3¢30.0k$39027%32
BUY YesWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.3¢5,000$6527%32
BUY YesWill Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.1¢10.0k$1027%32
BUY YesWill Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.1¢10.0k$1027%32
BUY YesWill Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.2¢10.0k$2027%32
BUY YesWill Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.5¢5,000$2527%32
BUY YesWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.4¢52.1k$20827%32
BUY YesWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢15.7k$12527%32
SELL YesWill James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2.7¢15.0k$40927%32
BUY YesWill Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.1¢4,623$4.6227%32
BUY YesWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.3¢1,354$4.0627%32
BUY YesWill Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.2¢90$0.1827%32
BUY YesWill Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.2¢387$0.7727%32
BUY YesWill Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.2¢70.5k$14127%32
SELL YesWill James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2.2¢7,000$15427%32
BUY YesWill Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.2¢25.0k$5027%32