PnL all-time+$22.6kvol $1.08M
PnL 30d+$357gains $5,022 · losses $4,821
PnL 7d−$2,895win rate 7d 30.0%
Win rate49.4%adj 49.4% · 30d 32.3%
Open value$7,904cash n/a
Positions25 / 280open / all-time
Max drawdown−37.4%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 49m ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$22.0kbelow peak −$2,787Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
60/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale62
Adjusted win rateraw 49.4% · shrunk toward 50%23
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable82
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity63
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? · Noclosed+$5,079US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? · Noclosed+$4,590Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? · Noclosed+$3,120US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yesclosed+$2,936Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Noclosed+$2,902
Worst markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Noopen−$4,208Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,834Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · Noclosed−$1,489Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,384US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? · Noopen−$1,082
Open positions · 11
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 9,719 | 23.7¢ | 19.5¢ | $1,895 | −$409 | −$93 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 5,317 | 22.3¢ | 33.1¢ | $1,757 | +$571 | +$2.58 | |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | No | 1,756 | 59.7¢ | 77¢ | $1,352 | +$304 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | No | 4,810 | 19.6¢ | 15.5¢ | $746 | −$199 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | No | 1,191 | 39.8¢ | 56.5¢ | $673 | +$199 | +$3.79 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | No | 766 | 66.9¢ | 74¢ | $567 | +$54 | +$56 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | No | 1,938 | 30.4¢ | 22.5¢ | $436 | −$153 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | No | 7,343 | 9.5¢ | 2.4¢ | $173 | −$523 | +$0.03 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,903 | 31.8¢ | 7¢ | $133 | −$471 | +$59 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026? | No | 1,965 | 15.9¢ | 5.7¢ | $112 | −$200 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | No | 526 | 6¢ | 11.5¢ | $60 | +$29 | $0 |
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