sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,365

mantou11

0x54d…0174
PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$36.9kvol $3.46M
PnL 30d+$1,810gains $3,129 · losses $3,429
PnL 7d+$137win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate38.3%adj 38.7% · 30d 38.9%
Open value$3,288cash n/a
Positions54 / 1,111open / all-time
Max drawdown−22.3%of equity peak
Account age1.8ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$52.5kbelow peak −$1,481Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

57/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65
Adjusted win rateraw 38.3% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity78

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yesclosed+$6,920Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Yesclosed+$6,345Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Noclosed+$3,938Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%? · Noclosed+$1,375Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? · Noclosed+$1,367

Worst markets

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Noclosed−$3,711Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%? · Yesclosed−$881Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · Noclosed−$687Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? · Yesclosed−$675Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? · Noclosed−$620

Open positions · 54

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?Yes77656.8¢92.4¢$717+$277+$291
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?No1,01230¢31.5¢$319+$15$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,200,000 and 4,350,000?No32490.6¢90.4¢$293−$0.59$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000?Yes64522.1¢37¢$239+$96+$47
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?No25092.1¢93.7¢$234+$3.92$0
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?No20891¢94¢$195+$6.23$0
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 16?Yes50718¢36.5¢$185+$94$0
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?No19162.7¢88¢$168+$48$0
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?Yes18341.4¢41¢$75−$0.78$0
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?Yes17016.8¢42.5¢$72+$44$0
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?Yes9936.2¢7.2¢$72+$10$0
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?No10426.9¢61.5¢$64+$36+$36
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Yes90140.9¢7¢$63−$306−$12
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?Yes22010.7¢26.1¢$57+$34$0
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?No6968.4¢82.5¢$57+$9.80$0
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?No1100¢49¢$54+$54$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000?Yes1813.4¢22.7¢$41+$35$0
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?Yes19423¢19.5¢$38−$6.78$0
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?No4476.1¢83.5¢$37+$3.29$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000?No4072¢74¢$30+$0.78$0
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?Yes58413.5¢5¢$29−$50+$132
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,400,000 and 4,600,000?No3280.6¢83.5¢$27+$0.92−$0.30
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,800,000 and 5,000,000?No3566.4¢67.5¢$23+$0.40+$4.55
Will Kispest-Honvéd be relegated from the 2026-27 NB I (Hungary)?No6245.3¢34¢$21−$6.95$0
Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?No4076¢49.5¢$20−$11$0
Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 16?Yes6022¢32.5¢$20+$6.33$0
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?Yes6516.8¢29¢$19+$7.87+$11
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?Yes15516.1¢11¢$17−$7.85$0
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?No1690¢93¢$15+$0.48−$61
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by December 31?Yes5827.5¢23¢$13−$2.60+$58
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?Yes23530.6¢5¢$12−$60$0
Will voter turnout be between 82% and 84% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Yes1401.4¢5.7¢$7.90+$5.90$0
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?No1064¢57.5¢$5.75−$0.65$0
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be $2.50T or more?Yes2091.1¢2.8¢$5.74+$3.41$0
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%?Yes501.7¢10.8¢$5.40+$4.55$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 400,000 and 430,000?Yes2512.4¢20.3¢$5.11+$2.00$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Yes20715.6¢2.5¢$5.07−$27$0
Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?No599.4¢100¢$5.00+$0.03−$0.08
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?No597.1¢99.2¢$4.96+$0.10$0
Will Ferencvárosi TC be relegated from the 2026-27 NB I (Hungary)?Yes254¢13.1¢$3.26+$2.26$0
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?Yes1517¢17.5¢$2.63+$0.07$0
Will Hungary win the UEFA EURO 2028?Yes6370.6¢0.4¢$2.23−$1.53$0
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes20017¢1.1¢$2.20−$32$0
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by December 31?Yes3224¢4.8¢$1.53−$6.21$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,350,000 and 4,500,000?Yes364.9¢3.8¢$1.35−$0.41$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 5,000,000 and 5,200,000?Yes253.7¢5¢$1.25+$0.32$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,600,000 and 2,750,000?Yes37¢34.5¢$0.93+$0.75$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,200,000 and 4,400,000?Yes286.6¢3.3¢$0.92−$0.92$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 5,400,000 and 5,600,000?Yes1511¢3.9¢$0.59−$1.09$0
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?Yes2,0000.8¢0¢$0−$16$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?Yes2757.4¢0¢$0−$20−$0.75
Will ZZS come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?Yes2421¢0¢$0−$2.50−$0.10
Will NA come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?Yes1732.5¢0¢$0−$4.31−$0.17
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?No15733.3¢0¢$0−$52−$1.40

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesRepublican House odds hit 12% by October 31?23¢194$4538%57
BUY YesDemocratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 16?22¢60$1338%57
BUY YesDemocratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 16?18¢507$9138%57
BUY NoWill Kispest-Honvéd be relegated from the 2026-27 NB I (Hungary)?50¢20$1038%57
BUY NoWill Kispest-Honvéd be relegated from the 2026-27 NB I (Hungary)?43¢42$1838%57
BUY YesWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,350,000 and 4,500,000?4.9¢36$1.7638%57
BUY NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,200,000 and 4,350,000?90.6¢324$29438%57
BUY NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000?76.6¢20$1538%57
BUY NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000?67.4¢20$1338%57
BUY YesWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?10.7¢220$2438%57
BUY NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?30¢1,012$30438%57
SELL NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,800,000 and 5,000,000?70¢165$11638%57
BUY YesWill voter turnout be between 82% and 84% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?1.4¢140$2.0038%57
SELL YesWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000?29.6¢210$6238%57
BUY YesWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000?3.4¢181$6.2138%57
BUY YesWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000?22.8¢670$15338%57
BUY YesWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?69.5¢84$5938%57
BUY NoWill the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?70¢44$3138%57
BUY YesWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?67.9¢152$10338%57
BUY NoWill voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?64¢10$6.4038%57