| Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | No | 4,653 | 90¢ | 99.5¢ | $4,630 | +$442 | $0 | |
| Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? | Yes | 2,687 | 18.3¢ | 48.5¢ | $1,303 | +$811 | +$114 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,802 | 13.5¢ | 69.7¢ | $1,255 | +$1,013 | +$624 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,725 | 21¢ | 69.5¢ | $1,199 | +$837 | $0 | |
| Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,226 | 44.1¢ | 76.5¢ | $938 | +$397 | +$12 | |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $100 in 2026? | No | 813 | 77.2¢ | 93.5¢ | $760 | +$132 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 741 | 29.8¢ | 92.5¢ | $685 | +$464 | −$29 | |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 725 | 85.1¢ | 91¢ | $660 | +$43 | −$3.03 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,010 | 29.3¢ | 64.1¢ | $647 | +$352 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? | No | 1,489 | 8.9¢ | 43¢ | $640 | +$508 | +$21 | |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 840 | 58.7¢ | 75.5¢ | $634 | +$141 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | No | 2,322 | 44.3¢ | 26¢ | $604 | −$426 | +$655 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 640 | 41.1¢ | 85¢ | $544 | +$281 | −$12 | |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or below $8 in 2026? | No | 672 | 28.3¢ | 74¢ | $497 | +$307 | +$79 | |
| Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft? | Yes | 826 | 48.7¢ | 56.5¢ | $467 | +$64 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 464 | 69.9¢ | 88¢ | $408 | +$84 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026? | No | 478 | 82.1¢ | 83.7¢ | $400 | +$7.51 | +$18 | |
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31? | No | 463 | 77.1¢ | 86¢ | $398 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 478 | 9.8¢ | 71.1¢ | $339 | +$293 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 361 | 52.4¢ | 89.3¢ | $323 | +$133 | $0 | |
| Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 445 | 17.5¢ | 71¢ | $316 | +$238 | +$47 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 359 | 67.7¢ | 84.5¢ | $303 | +$60 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,208 | 12.3¢ | 24.3¢ | $294 | +$146 | +$3.31 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,573 | 51.5¢ | 18.5¢ | $291 | −$519 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 323 | 68.6¢ | 89.4¢ | $289 | +$67 | +$65 | |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 565 | 38.6¢ | 51¢ | $288 | +$70 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 452 | 75.3¢ | 62.5¢ | $282 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027? | No | 836 | 14.9¢ | 33.5¢ | $280 | +$155 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 651 | 62.5¢ | 41.5¢ | $270 | −$137 | −$79 | |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Yes | 350 | 52.4¢ | 76¢ | $266 | +$82 | $0 | |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 80.3¢ | 86.5¢ | $260 | +$19 | −$6.18 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 476 | 47.5¢ | 54¢ | $257 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30? | Yes | 782 | 22¢ | 30.5¢ | $239 | +$66 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | Yes | 407 | 28.3¢ | 58.5¢ | $238 | +$123 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | No | 244 | 90.9¢ | 97.5¢ | $238 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 248 | 69.3¢ | 92.5¢ | $229 | +$58 | +$13 | |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 338 | 14.4¢ | 67.5¢ | $228 | +$180 | +$187 | |
| Will London have between 85-110mm of precipitation in October? | No | 260 | 72.7¢ | 87¢ | $227 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 310 | 62.8¢ | 72.5¢ | $225 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 241 | 80¢ | 93¢ | $224 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? | No | 254 | 67.6¢ | 87¢ | $221 | +$49 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $10 in 2026? | No | 278 | 76¢ | 79¢ | $220 | +$8.35 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? | Yes | 958 | 39.8¢ | 21.5¢ | $206 | −$176 | $0 | |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 224 | 69¢ | 89.5¢ | $200 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,738 | 10.7¢ | 11.5¢ | $200 | +$15 | +$0.78 | |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 650 | 43.7¢ | 30.5¢ | $198 | −$86 | $0 | |
| Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 334 | 51¢ | 58.5¢ | $195 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will NYC have more than 6.25 inches of precipitation in October? | No | 201 | 76.5¢ | 93¢ | $187 | +$33 | +$45 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 853 | 13.4¢ | 21.5¢ | $183 | +$69 | +$57 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.25 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 369 | 26.9¢ | 49.5¢ | $183 | +$84 | $0 | |
| Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | Yes | 198 | 73.4¢ | 90¢ | $178 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026? | No | 240 | 76.5¢ | 73¢ | $175 | −$8.40 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 533 | 45.9¢ | 32.5¢ | $173 | −$71 | −$20 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 206 | 75.5¢ | 83.5¢ | $172 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 251 | 54.1¢ | 68¢ | $170 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 337 | 44.4¢ | 50.2¢ | $169 | +$19 | −$0.66 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,629 | 10.4¢ | 10.2¢ | $165 | −$4.12 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 9, 2026? | No | 177 | 86.2¢ | 93.2¢ | $165 | +$12 | +$17 | |
| Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 649 | 18.5¢ | 25¢ | $162 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? | Yes | 840 | 22.5¢ | 19¢ | $160 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? | No | 335 | 59¢ | 47.5¢ | $159 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 245 | 67.3¢ | 64.5¢ | $158 | −$6.92 | $0 | |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 220 | 53.1¢ | 71¢ | $156 | +$39 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 202 | 24.3¢ | 76.5¢ | $154 | +$105 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 354 | 6¢ | 42.5¢ | $150 | +$129 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30? | Yes | 565 | 24.4¢ | 26.5¢ | $150 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 252 | 50¢ | 58.5¢ | $147 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 610 | 11.7¢ | 24¢ | $147 | +$75 | $0 | |
| Tom Holland as Spider-Man? | No | 284 | 53.4¢ | 50.5¢ | $143 | −$8.34 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30? | Yes | 314 | 8.4¢ | 44.5¢ | $140 | +$113 | +$73 | |
| Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31? | Yes | 290 | 21.2¢ | 48¢ | $139 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 143 | 80.3¢ | 95.5¢ | $137 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | No | 662 | 14.9¢ | 20.5¢ | $136 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? | No | 155 | 79.8¢ | 87¢ | $134 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in Miami be between $809,000 and $830,000 on December 31? | Yes | 556 | 17.8¢ | 23.5¢ | $131 | +$32 | +$37 | |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 794 | 43.4¢ | 16¢ | $127 | −$217 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | No | 312 | 60.6¢ | 40.5¢ | $126 | −$63 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 330 | 30.8¢ | 38¢ | $125 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 129 | 81.4¢ | 95.5¢ | $123 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 165 | 26.1¢ | 72.5¢ | $119 | +$76 | +$29 | |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 200 | 45¢ | 58¢ | $116 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? | No | 120 | 76.7¢ | 95.3¢ | $114 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 250 | 55.8¢ | 45.5¢ | $114 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 249 | 7.8¢ | 45.2¢ | $113 | +$93 | $0 | |
| Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027? | No | 151 | 51.6¢ | 74.5¢ | $112 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 146 | 50.3¢ | 77¢ | $112 | +$39 | −$22 | |
| Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October? | No | 124 | 82.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $112 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 429 | 15.8¢ | 25.4¢ | $109 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 145 | 58.3¢ | 73.5¢ | $107 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 4,934 | 1.3¢ | 2.1¢ | $104 | +$38 | $0 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,205 | 34.5¢ | 8.5¢ | $102 | −$314 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 752 | 16¢ | 13.5¢ | $102 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 706 | 18.3¢ | 14.1¢ | $100 | −$30 | +$44 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 169 | 89.8¢ | 58.7¢ | $99 | −$53 | +$1.88 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | Yes | 321 | 26.3¢ | 30.5¢ | $98 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 502 | 15.3¢ | 19¢ | $95 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 478 | 9.9¢ | 19.9¢ | $95 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 763 | 7.5¢ | 12.4¢ | $95 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026? | No | 235 | 31.7¢ | 40¢ | $94 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 263 | 17.2¢ | 35¢ | $92 | +$47 | $0 | |
