PnL all-time+$4,259vol $2.45M
PnL 30d−$1,243gains $3,489 · losses $7,516
PnL 7d−$2,683win rate 7d 57.1%
Win rate70.2%adj 69.4% · 30d 58.0%
Open value$810cash n/a
Positions7 / 470open / all-time
Max drawdown−78.3%of equity peak
Account age1.1ylast trade 7h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$8,197below peak −$5,468Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52
Adjusted win rateraw 70.2% · shrunk toward 50%74
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable89
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity22
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$4,652Lighter Airdrop on December 30? · Yesclosed+$3,719Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October? · Yesclosed+$3,496Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? · Noclosed+$3,196Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? · Noclosed+$2,979
Worst markets
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? · Noclosed−$8,582Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? · Yesclosed−$6,948Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? · Yesclosed−$6,871Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yesclosed−$3,975Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? · Noclosed−$3,590
Open positions · 7
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | No | 1,009 | 65.6¢ | 49¢ | $494 | −$168 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026? | No | 457 | 79.4¢ | 65¢ | $297 | −$66 | $0 | |
| Gemini Argon released by October 9, 2026? | No | 13 | 98¢ | 97.9¢ | $13 | −$0.02 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | No | 10 | 97.6¢ | 97.6¢ | $9.49 | $0 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026? | No | 1 | 99.3¢ | 99¢ | $1.22 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Nikos Androulakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | Yes | 11 | 1.2¢ | 5¢ | $0.55 | +$0.42 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Down | 250 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | −$0.34 |
Recent trades
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