sharpside
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Traders/Rank #13,798

Flaner

0x585…753f@flanerflan
1y+PoliticsOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$185kvol $12.8M
PnL 30d−$72gains $837 · losses $24
PnL 7d−$151win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate51.7%adj 51.6% · 30d 88.9%
Open value$3,664cash n/a
Positions82 / 794open / all-time
Max drawdown−83.3%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 7d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$185kbelow peak −$153kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

30/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 51.7% · shrunk toward 50%29
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable97
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d75
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity17

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? · Yesclosed+$18.5kWill Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? · Noclosed+$8,145Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? · Noclosed+$7,161Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? · Noclosed+$5,109Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? · Yesclosed+$3,897

Worst markets

Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? · Yesclosed−$15.7kWill Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yesclosed−$8,928Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Noclosed−$7,274Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yesopen−$6,755Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? · Yesclosed−$5,534

Open positions · 82

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No1,06650¢77.8¢$829+$296$0
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?No39432¢87.5¢$345+$219$0
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?No26235¢99.1¢$259+$168+$0.41
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1,06650¢22.3¢$237−$296$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?No20573¢98¢$201+$51$0
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes26368.2¢70.5¢$186+$6.08−$0.28
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?No19966¢81¢$161+$30$0
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026?No15567.5¢98¢$152+$47$0
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?No33346.3¢39¢$130−$24$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No20057¢57.5¢$115+$1.00$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No34728¢29.3¢$101+$4.33$0
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?Yes7058.4¢14.2¢$100+$41$0
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?No10078.2¢97.3¢$97+$19$0
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?No9178¢96.8¢$88+$17$0
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?No10079¢83.5¢$84+$4.50$0
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?No20780¢33.5¢$69−$96$0
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Yes24278.8¢23¢$56−$135$0
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Yes6765¢77¢$51+$8.01$0
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Yes52637.8¢8.5¢$45−$154$0
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?No2146¢17.1¢$37+$24+$88
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Yes23572¢12¢$28−$141$0
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?No3590¢77.5¢$27−$4.38$0
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes15722¢16.5¢$26−$8.66$0
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?Yes22356¢11.5¢$26−$99$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No10059¢20.5¢$21−$39$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes2085.9¢8.8¢$18+$5.97$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes10027¢17.5¢$18−$9.50$0
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?No1852.4¢94.6¢$17+$7.78−$108
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No5636¢28.6¢$16−$4.17$0
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes6046¢23¢$14−$14$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Yes30457¢4.1¢$12−$161$0
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Yes26017.9¢4¢$10−$36$0
Rippling IPO before 2027?Yes27219.7¢3.7¢$10−$44$0
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes15943¢5.5¢$8.72−$59+$7.00
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?No17365¢5¢$8.63−$104$0
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?No1259¢70.5¢$8.26+$1.35$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?No10046¢6.5¢$6.50−$39$0
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes9851.1¢0.6¢$5.91−$5.27$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Yes20017¢2.6¢$5.20−$29$0
Celonis IPO before 2027?Yes15539.6¢2.9¢$4.41−$57$0
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?Yes26037.4¢1.6¢$4.16−$93$0
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes18320¢2.2¢$3.93−$33$0
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes4879¢8¢$3.79−$34$0
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?No1077¢24¢$2.49−$5.51−$1.11
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes5727¢3.9¢$2.24−$13+$3.34
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?Yes9213¢2.3¢$2.12−$9.88$0
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes507.9¢3.6¢$1.77−$2.17$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes2081.5¢0.7¢$1.46−$1.67$0
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?Yes1119¢1.3¢$1.44−$8.55$0
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yes3018¢4.6¢$1.38−$4.02$0
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes737¢16.5¢$1.16−$1.44$0
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?No1224¢8.5¢$1.06−$1.93$0
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?No13516¢0.8¢$1.01−$21$0
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?No1374¢6.5¢$0.85−$8.81$0
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Yes552¢15.5¢$0.78−$1.82$0
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?No635¢12.5¢$0.77−$1.38$0
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes34.7k19.2¢0¢$0−$6,683−$72
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No5,64363.1¢0¢$0−$3,562+$2.38
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Yes5,29038.5¢0¢$0−$2,037−$13
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes3,0002¢0¢$0−$60$0
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes89636.6¢0¢$0−$328+$264
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Yes57818¢0¢$0−$104$0
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes53318.1¢0¢$0−$96+$46
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes46128¢0¢$0−$129$0
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Yes36924.1¢0¢$0−$89$0
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes33029.9¢0¢$0−$99+$25
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?Yes26324¢0¢$0−$63$0
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Yes20221¢0¢$0−$42$0
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?No20154.8¢0¢$0−$110−$0.49
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?No20020¢0¢$0−$40$0
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?No19745¢0¢$0−$89$0
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes19120¢0¢$0−$38$0
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Yes17638.8¢0¢$0−$68$0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?Yes15121¢0¢$0−$32+$20
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?Yes10317¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?Yes8015¢0¢$0−$12$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Yes7729¢0¢$0−$22$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Yes6342.7¢0¢$0−$27$0
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes3367¢0¢$0−$22$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2765.7¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes1625¢0¢$0−$4.00−$0.12
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No178¢0¢$0−$1.15$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?1.5¢208$3.1252%30
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?5.9¢208$1252%30
BUY NoWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?24¢12$2.9952%30
BUY YesWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?8.4¢705$5952%30
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?1.1¢985$1152%30
BUY YesIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?36¢160$5852%30
BUY YesIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?40¢1,762$70552%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?37.7¢108$4152%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?39¢10$3.9052%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?38¢100$3852%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?43.6¢435$19052%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?45.3¢239$10852%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?45¢40$1852%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?44¢8$3.5252%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?43¢85$3752%30
BUY NoIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?44¢30$1352%30
SELL NoSpain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score97¢300$29152%30
BUY NoWill Spain win on 2026-06-21?0.2¢515$1.0352%30
BUY UnderSpain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.53.9¢2,041$8052%30
BUY Team FalconsCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs68¢10$6.8652%30