sharpside
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Traders/Rank #6,169

3.3.3

0x593…7d5d
WhaleWR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$82.1kvol $5.01M
PnL 30d+$178gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate72.2%adj 60.5% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$18.1kcash n/a
Positions52 / 70open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 8d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$81.9kbelow peak −$126kOct 10

SharpScore inputs

18/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 72.2% · shrunk toward 50%51
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable62
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d73
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · Yesclosed+$123kWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? · Yesclosed+$16.9kIsrael strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? · Yesclosed+$7,247Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yesclosed+$5,270Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? · Yesclosed+$5,147

Worst markets

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? · Yesopen−$108kWill Donald Trump be inaugurated? · Noopen−$14.8kWill Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? · Yesopen−$14.8kWill Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? · Yesopen−$13.5kUS forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yesopen−$12.8k

Open positions · 52

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes157k11.4¢11.5¢$18.1k+$181$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?Yes400k0.9¢0¢$0−$3,482$0
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes367k29.4¢0¢$0−$108k$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?Yes336k0.7¢0¢$0−$2,199$0
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?No325k4.7¢0¢$0−$15.3k+$500
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?No200k0.5¢0¢$0−$1,100$0
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?Yes200k0.6¢0¢$0−$1,163$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?Yes164k0.6¢0¢$0−$980$0
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?Yes146k2.3¢0¢$0−$3,404$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?Yes120k0.9¢0¢$0−$1,080$0
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes108k15.1¢0¢$0−$16.2k+$8,226
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes100.0k1.4¢0¢$0−$1,400$0
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?Yes78.5k4.5¢0¢$0−$3,564$0
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes62.8k20¢0¢$0−$12.6k−$265
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?Yes62.5k0.8¢0¢$0−$500$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?Yes50.7k0.8¢0¢$0−$406$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?Yes50.0k0.4¢0¢$0−$200$0
US forces enter Iran by March 3?Yes50.0k0.5¢0¢$0−$250$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?Yes50.0k1¢0¢$0−$500$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?Yes50.0k0.8¢0¢$0−$400$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?Yes50.0k0.8¢0¢$0−$400$0
Iran military response by Friday?Yes46.8k11.1¢0¢$0−$5,213$0
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?Yes46.0k1.2¢0¢$0−$552$0
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Yes40.0k19.3¢0¢$0−$7,702−$5,840
Will someone else be inaugurated?Yes30.0k3.3¢0¢$0−$990$0
Iran military response by Monday?Yes28.8k10.1¢0¢$0−$2,911$0
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31?Yes25.0k7¢0¢$0−$1,750$0
U.S. military action against Iran by Monday?Yes20.2k2.4¢0¢$0−$491$0
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Yes20.0k59¢0¢$0−$11.8k−$3,000
Iran military response by Friday?Yes20.0k13.5¢0¢$0−$2,700$0
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Yes19.3k2.9¢0¢$0−$560$0
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseNo16.5k63¢0¢$0−$10.4k$0
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?Yes14.4k1.6¢0¢$0−$230$0
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?Yes14.0k19¢0¢$0−$2,659+$41
Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election?No12.7k17¢0¢$0−$2,154$0
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May?Yes12.5k8¢0¢$0−$995$0
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?Yes10.7k2.7¢0¢$0−$288$0
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?Yes10.1k5.8¢0¢$0−$588$0
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?Yes10.0k1¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will Biden resign before the election?Yes10,0001.3¢0¢$0−$130$0
Iran military response by Tuesday?Yes10,00035¢0¢$0−$3,500$0
US forces enter Iran by March 7?Yes10,0007¢0¢$0−$700$0
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?Yes8,00033¢0¢$0−$2,640$0
Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 16?Yes7,9892.9¢0¢$0−$236$0
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Yes7,7002.9¢0¢$0−$223$0
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes6,6872.2¢0¢$0−$147−$385
Tyson vs. Paul - knockout in first 10 seconds?Yes5,1171.5¢0¢$0−$75$0
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?Yes4,0757.5¢0¢$0−$307$0
Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 15?Yes2,5505.4¢0¢$0−$137$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March?Yes1,7257¢0¢$0−$121$0
U.S. military action against Iran by August 31?Yes3897¢0¢$0−$27$0
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31?Yes1303.5¢0¢$0−$4.57$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesIran leadership change by December 31?12¢31.7k$3,80972%18
BUY YesIran leadership change by December 31?12¢10.9k$1,31172%18
BUY YesIran leadership change by December 31?11¢22.2k$2,43872%18
BUY YesIran leadership change by December 31?11¢46.5k$5,12072%18
SELL YesUS forces enter Iran by March 31?5.2¢845$4472%18
BUY YesUS forces enter Iran by March 31?20¢22.3k$4,46872%18
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?21¢32.7k$6,87772%18
BUY YesUS forces enter Iran by March 31?20¢42.2k$8,44872%18
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?18¢74.6k$13.4k72%18Whale
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?19¢25.2k$4,78072%18
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?19¢37.5k$7,12672%18
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?13¢43.9k$5,70172%18
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?12¢62.9k$7,55072%18
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?11¢24.7k$2,71572%18
BUY YesFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?11.9¢12.0k$1,43072%18
BUY YesFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?8.8¢1,177$10472%18
BUY YesWill the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?1.4¢2,174$3072%18
BUY YesWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March?7¢222$1672%18
SELL NoWill Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?99.9¢7,059$7,05272%18
SELL YesWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?99.9¢9,187$9,17872%18