sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,700

ifyouloveme

0x5a0…fa97
PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$8,807vol $1.31M
PnL 30d−$1,351gains $11.3k · losses $13.7k
PnL 7d+$2,496win rate 7d 43.6%
Win rate51.2%adj 51.2% · 30d 54.5%
Open value$25.5kcash n/a
Positions70 / 570open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2molast trade 3h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$13.2kbelow peak −$30.3kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

47/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale56
Adjusted win rateraw 51.2% · shrunk toward 50%28
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 70

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes216k1.5¢2.4¢$5,189+$1,864$0
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?No2,40067.5¢93.4¢$2,240+$621+$443
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes2,50021.3¢69.8¢$1,743+$1,210+$259
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?No1,67353.5¢92.3¢$1,544+$650$0
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No5,00031.9¢19.5¢$975−$621−$4.69
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Yes1,32547.1¢69.2¢$917+$293$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,85937.6¢43¢$799+$101$0
Buccaneers vs. CowboysBuccaneers78919¢100¢$789+$639$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No87540¢87.5¢$766+$416−$2.21
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes1,25048¢56.3¢$704+$104$0
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No1,14862.3¢56¢$643−$72+$0.79
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Yes94253.4¢60.5¢$570+$67$0
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes100k0.4¢0.5¢$550+$150$0
Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?No1,08623.5¢50.1¢$544+$289+$62
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?No62057.7¢87.5¢$542+$185−$14
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?Yes74667¢65.5¢$489−$11$0
Anthropic IPO before 2027?No2,00017.1¢22.5¢$450+$108+$254
Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?No86841.6¢49.5¢$430+$69$0
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026?No63439.3¢66.5¢$422+$172$0
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?No55066.4¢74.5¢$410+$44+$81
Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?No71441.2¢52.5¢$375+$80$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes47942.3¢76.8¢$368+$165+$17
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes2,32812.9¢14.5¢$337+$37$0
Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?Yes30847.7¢84.5¢$260+$113+$222
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Yes4,50011.1¢5.6¢$250−$250−$358
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?No29584.8¢83.9¢$248−$2.70$0
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes46543¢46¢$214+$14$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?Yes23684.9¢87.3¢$206+$5.65$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes27254¢68.5¢$186+$39$0
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?Yes35257¢52.5¢$185−$16$0
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Yes18576.3¢78.5¢$145+$4.13$0
Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31?No20069¢72¢$144+$6.00+$0.23
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No17566.8¢78.5¢$138+$20$0
OpenAI resumes training by October 15, 2026?No16564.4¢80¢$132+$26$0
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No20054.2¢60.3¢$121+$12+$0.17
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?No83315¢14¢$117−$8.33$0
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes31252.2¢34.5¢$108−$55$0
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?No17374.9¢60¢$104−$26$0
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?No31929¢31¢$99+$6.37$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes1,09722.8¢9¢$99−$151$0
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No12679.2¢72.5¢$91−$8.52$0
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes69120.7¢12.7¢$87−$55−$34
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?Yes7095¢99¢$69+$2.77$0
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,3146.4¢2.9¢$66−$82$0
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?No8070.2¢80.5¢$64+$8.20$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes1,0717¢5.5¢$59−$16$0
Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31?Yes1,0405.7¢5.5¢$57−$1.87$0
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes27818¢20.5¢$57+$6.94$0
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes5297.4¢100¢$52+$1.30$0
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No6280.7¢74.4¢$46−$3.90$0
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes14530¢30.5¢$44+$0.73$0
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?Yes6049¢57¢$34+$4.80$0
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?No3079¢85.5¢$26+$1.95$0
Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?Yes7018¢35.5¢$25+$12$0
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?Yes8126¢26.5¢$21+$0.40$0
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?Yes5196¢4¢$21−$10$0
Will SI.gov launch by October 15?No6871.1¢25.5¢$17−$31$0
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Yes6043¢27¢$16−$9.53$0
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes48121¢3.3¢$16−$85$0
Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028?Yes1,0082¢1.6¢$16−$4.21+$2.55
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Yes20025¢7.5¢$15−$35$0
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes3061¢30¢$9.00−$9.30$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?Yes3,0007.2¢0.3¢$7.50−$207−$84
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Yes2538¢2.5¢$6.32−$14$0
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No583¢79¢$3.95−$0.20$0
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Yes3316¢12¢$3.90−$1.30$0
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Yes5311¢6.5¢$3.46−$2.40$0
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes1638¢1.6¢$2.53−$11$0
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes26512¢0.5¢$1.19−$31$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 12, 2026?Yes750.9¢1.6¢$1.16+$0.46$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?19.6¢247$4851%47
BUY YesWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?20.7¢247$5151%47
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?4¢850$3451%47
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?4¢9$0.3651%47
BUY YesGemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?49¢60$2951%47
BUY YesGemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?18¢70$1351%47
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 8, 2026?1.5¢33$0.4951%47
BUY NoWill SI.gov launch by October 15?64.5¢37$2451%47
BUY YesWill Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?97.4¢52$5151%47
BUY YesWill Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?30¢145$4451%47
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?29¢319$9251%47
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?84.1¢60$5051%47
BUY NoWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Science Summit remarks?29.9¢100$3051%47
SELL YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?2.9¢66$1.9151%47
BUY NoRepublican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?41.2¢714$29551%47
SELL NoRepublican House odds hit 12% by October 31?76¢491$37351%47
BUY YesRepublican House odds hit 15% by October 31?5.7¢1,040$5951%47
SELL NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?92.1¢81$7551%47
BUY NoWill SI.gov launch by October 15?79¢31$2551%47
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 8, 2026?6¢33$1.9751%47