Traders/Rank #169

balthazar

0x5a2…9318@balthazarpoly

WhalePnL 1M+PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+SportPoliticsOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$1.03Mvol $74.6M

PnL 30d−$508kgains $34.4k · losses $31.1k

PnL 7d−$304kwin rate 7d 54.8%

Win rate54.8%adj 54.7% · 30d 54.8%

Open value$725kcash n/a

Positions2,000 / 82,202open / all-time

Max drawdown−34.1%of equity peak

Account age1.7ylast trade 3m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2.05Mbelow peak −$968kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

67/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale86

Adjusted win rateraw 54.8% · shrunk toward 50%37

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity66

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Noopen+$93.6k Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Noopen+$80.1k Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? · Yesopen+$23.3k Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? · Yesopen+$22.6k Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yesopen+$19.5k

Worst markets

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yesopen−$93.6k Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen−$80.2k Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yesopen−$29.4k Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 · Overopen−$14.1k Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 · Overopen−$14.1k

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	240k	50¢	89¢	$214k	+$93.6k	$0	15mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	250k	50¢	82.1¢	$205k	+$80.1k	$0	25mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	250k	50¢	18¢	$44.9k	−$80.2k	$0	25mo
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	240k	50¢	11¢	$26.4k	−$93.6k	$0	15mo
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	17.0k	77.4¢	86.3¢	$14.7k	+$1,515	−$1,343	3mo
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	12.4k	84.6¢	85.7¢	$10.6k	+$131	+$19.3k	ended
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	12.8k	69.4¢	81.5¢	$10.4k	+$1,546	−$140	3mo
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	8,262	31.8¢	67¢	$5,535	+$2,911	$0	2mo
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	6,215	53.9¢	88¢	$5,469	+$2,119	+$655	21d 15h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	3,510	78¢	100¢	$3,508	+$771	$0	6d 15h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	3,903	56.1¢	84.5¢	$3,298	+$1,109	+$1,563	19d 15h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	3,550	75.9¢	90¢	$3,195	+$502	$0	6d 15h
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	3,464	72.3¢	79.5¢	$2,754	+$248	$0	2mo
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	14.6k	26.5¢	18¢	$2,620	−$1,233	+$143	3mo
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	17.3k	20.5¢	11.5¢	$1,986	−$1,565	+$1,824	3mo
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	7,063	23.1¢	22.5¢	$1,589	−$42	+$396	2mo
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	15.3k	24.6¢	8.5¢	$1,302	−$2,470	$0	2mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	9,442	11.1¢	13¢	$1,228	+$178	+$12	16d 15h
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	4,764	16.3¢	22.5¢	$1,072	+$297	+$2,701	3mo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	4,550	35.5¢	20.5¢	$933	−$682	$0	22d 15h
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,200	2.9¢	22.5¢	$720	+$626	+$230	3mo
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	4,458	30.5¢	11.5¢	$513	−$848	−$227	22d 15h
Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,246	2.9¢	9.5¢	$498	+$344	$0	3mo
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	4,223	13.3¢	10.5¢	$443	−$117	$0	15mo
Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,246	2.9¢	8¢	$420	+$265	$0	3mo
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	3,537	11.2¢	11.7¢	$414	+$19	+$37	15mo
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,200	2.9¢	12.7¢	$405	+$311	+$147	3mo
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?	Yes	5,157	11.6¢	5.6¢	$286	−$312	+$62	8d 15h
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	8,972	17¢	2.5¢	$224	−$1,298	+$8.71	2mo
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,234	2.9¢	6.7¢	$215	+$120	+$947	3mo
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?	Yes	4,706	11.1¢	3.5¢	$162	−$359	+$38	15d 15h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	4,101	7.3¢	4¢	$162	−$136	+$1,519	3mo
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	12.4k	4.1¢	1.2¢	$149	−$356	+$107	2mo
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	3,907	3.2¢	2.8¢	$109	−$14	+$43	4mo
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,234	2.9¢	3.2¢	$102	+$6.76	+$17	3mo
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,234	2.9¢	2.6¢	$84	−$11	−$10.00	3mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	9,440	8.7¢	0.5¢	$52	−$769	−$3.17	16d 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	12.8k	3.1¢	0.4¢	$51	−$344	−$58	2mo
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,204	2.9¢	1.6¢	$50	−$45	+$16	3mo
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	6,958	0.7¢	0.7¢	$49	+$3.37	$0	6mo
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	5,223	9.5¢	0.9¢	$47	−$449	+$36	22d 15h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	3,639	3.7¢	1.2¢	$42	−$94	+$298	22d 15h
Will Taylor Rogers be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,719	2.9¢	1¢	$37	−$72	−$30	3mo
Will Tricia McLaughlin be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,314	2.9¢	0.9¢	$30	−$68	−$13	3mo
Will Liz Huston be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,704	2.9¢	0.8¢	$28	−$81	−$22	3mo
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	6,107	7.2¢	0.5¢	$27	−$409	−$172	19d 15h
Will Kari Lake be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,117	2.9¢	0.6¢	$25	−$96	−$24	3mo
Will Lauren Bis be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,969	2.9¢	0.6¢	$24	−$93	−$17	3mo
Will Beni Rae Harmony be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,246	2.9¢	0.5¢	$24	−$131	$0	3mo
Will Harrison Fields be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,312	2.9¢	0.5¢	$19	−$107	−$21	3mo
Will Pat Adams be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,224	2.9¢	0.5¢	$19	−$105	−$15	3mo
Will Lara Trump be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,514	2.9¢	0.4¢	$18	−$115	−$14	3mo
Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,466	2.9¢	0.5¢	$17	−$85	−$27	3mo
Will Matthew Boyle be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,673	2.9¢	0.4¢	$16	−$121	−$14	3mo
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	31.7k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$16	−$340	−$2.98	3mo
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	31.6k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$16	−$339	−$78	21d 15h
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	29.0k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$15	−$311	+$1,919	21d 15h
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	28.8k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$14	−$310	+$1,503	21d 15h
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	28.8k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$14	−$309	+$1,331	21d 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	3,154	1.4¢	0.5¢	$14	−$31	+$140	3mo
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	Yes	5,208	9.7¢	0.3¢	$13	−$494	+$184	1d 15h
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	25.9k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$13	−$279	+$29	3mo
Will Daniel Hadad win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	3,157	1.6¢	0.4¢	$13	−$37	+$34	12mo
Will Katie Pavlich be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,976	2.9¢	0.3¢	$12	−$134	+$7.75	3mo
Will Kaelan Dorr be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,836	2.9¢	0.3¢	$12	−$130	−$9.63	3mo
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	22.3k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$11	−$609	−$115	ended
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	22.3k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$11	−$609	−$118	ended
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	22.1k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$11	−$603	−$126	ended
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	21.7k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$11	−$233	+$1,392	21d 15h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	21.6k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$11	−$232	+$431	3mo
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	7,107	8¢	0.2¢	$11	−$556	−$41	19d 15h
Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	6,958	0.7¢	0.2¢	$10	−$35	$0	6mo
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	19.5k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$9.75	−$532	−$182	ended
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	19.1k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$9.55	−$205	+$1,738	3mo
Will Kush Desai be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,712	2.9¢	0.2¢	$9.42	−$129	−$12	3mo
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	9,409	3.6¢	0.1¢	$9.41	−$327	+$288	18d 15h
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	18.3k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$9.14	−$498	−$205	ended
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	8,808	3.1¢	0.1¢	$8.81	−$266	+$117	21d 15h
Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	3,227	1.6¢	0.3¢	$8.07	−$42	$0	12mo
Will Ari Fleischer be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,246	2.9¢	0.2¢	$7.87	−$146	$0	3mo
Will Monica Crowley be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,006	2.9¢	0.2¢	$7.51	−$140	−$6.40	3mo
Will Spencer Pratt be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,371	2.9¢	0.2¢	$6.56	−$122	−$19	3mo
Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,851	2.9¢	0.2¢	$5.78	−$107	−$35	3mo
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	10.9k	5.8¢	0.1¢	$5.45	−$625	$0	22d 15h
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 15h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,793	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.90	−$301	−$3.03	21d 15h
Will Máximo Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	3,227	1.6¢	0.2¢	$4.84	−$46	$0	12mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	9,423	8.7¢	0.1¢	$4.71	−$815	$0	16d 15h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	Yes	9,329	8.8¢	0.1¢	$4.66	−$812	$0	16d 15h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,275	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.64	−$285	−$18	21d 15h

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
3m ago	BUY No	Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	99.8¢	320	$319	55%	67
3m ago	BUY No	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	87¢	318	$277	55%	67
3m ago	BUY No	Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	99.8¢	80	$80	55%	67
3m ago	BUY No	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	99.7¢	80	$80	55%	67
3m ago	BUY No	Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	97.2¢	80	$78	55%	67
3m ago	BUY No	Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	99.8¢	320	$319	55%	67
3m ago	BUY No	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	99.7¢	320	$319	55%	67
3m ago	BUY No	Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	99.8¢	80	$80	55%	67
4m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 9?	96¢	20	$19	55%	67
9m ago	BUY Yes	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 9?	0.4¢	200	$0.80	55%	67
9m ago	BUY Yes	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 9?	7¢	200	$14	55%	67
9m ago	BUY Yes	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 9?	1.4¢	149	$2.13	55%	67
9m ago	BUY Yes	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 9?	0.3¢	50	$0.17	55%	67
9m ago	BUY Yes	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 9?	1.1¢	50	$0.55	55%	67
15m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on October 9?	98¢	27	$26	55%	67
25m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 10?	96.9¢	20	$19	55%	67
25m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 10?	99.7¢	20	$20	55%	67
26m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 10?	99.7¢	30	$30	55%	67
26m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on October 10?	97.9¢	20	$20	55%	67
26m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on October 10?	97.9¢	30	$29	55%	67