Traders/Rank #169

balthazar

0x5a2…9318@balthazarpoly

WhalePnL 1M+PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+SportPoliticsOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$1.03Mvol $74.6M

PnL 30d−$508kgains $34.7k · losses $53.5k

PnL 7d−$304kwin rate 7d 52.9%

Win rate52.9%adj 52.8% · 30d 52.9%

Open value$741kcash n/a

Positions2,000 / 82,135open / all-time

Max drawdown−34.1%of equity peak

Account age1.7ylast trade 4m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2.04Mbelow peak −$982kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

66/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale86

Adjusted win rateraw 52.9% · shrunk toward 50%32

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity66

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Noopen+$100k Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Noopen+$80.1k Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? · Yesopen+$23.3k Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? · Yesopen+$22.6k Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yesopen+$19.5k

Worst markets

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yesopen−$100k Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen−$80.2k Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yesopen−$29.4k Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 · Overopen−$14.1k Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 · Overopen−$14.1k

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	257k	50¢	89¢	$229k	+$100k	$0	15mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	250k	50¢	82.1¢	$205k	+$80.1k	$0	25mo
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	250k	50¢	18¢	$44.9k	−$80.2k	$0	25mo
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	257k	50¢	11¢	$28.3k	−$100k	$0	15mo
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	16.8k	77.3¢	87.3¢	$14.6k	+$1,684	−$1,343	3mo
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	12.4k	84.6¢	85.7¢	$10.6k	+$131	+$19.3k	ended
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	12.8k	69.4¢	81.5¢	$10.4k	+$1,546	−$140	3mo
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	6,287	53.9¢	90.5¢	$5,689	+$2,300	+$658	21d 21h
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	8,262	31.8¢	65¢	$5,370	+$2,745	$0	2mo
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	3,510	78¢	100¢	$3,508	+$771	$0	6d 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	3,903	56.1¢	84.5¢	$3,298	+$1,109	+$1,563	19d 21h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	3,550	75.9¢	88.5¢	$3,142	+$449	$0	6d 21h
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	3,464	72.3¢	79.5¢	$2,754	+$248	$0	2mo
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	14.6k	26.5¢	18¢	$2,620	−$1,233	+$143	3mo
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	17.3k	20.5¢	11.5¢	$1,986	−$1,565	+$1,824	3mo
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	7,063	23.1¢	22.5¢	$1,589	−$42	+$396	2mo
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	15.3k	24.6¢	8.5¢	$1,302	−$2,470	$0	2mo
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	4,764	16.3¢	21.5¢	$1,024	+$249	+$2,701	3mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	9,442	11.1¢	10.5¢	$991	−$58	+$12	16d 21h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	4,550	35.5¢	20.5¢	$933	−$682	$0	22d 21h
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,200	2.9¢	22.5¢	$720	+$626	+$230	3mo
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	4,223	13.3¢	14.4¢	$606	+$45	$0	15mo
Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,246	2.9¢	9.5¢	$498	+$344	$0	3mo
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	4,458	30.5¢	10.5¢	$468	−$892	−$227	22d 21h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	3,537	11.2¢	12¢	$426	+$32	+$37	15mo
Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,246	2.9¢	8¢	$420	+$265	$0	3mo
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,200	2.9¢	12.4¢	$397	+$303	+$147	3mo
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?	Yes	5,157	11.6¢	5.5¢	$284	−$315	+$62	8d 21h
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,234	2.9¢	6.6¢	$213	+$118	+$947	3mo
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	8,972	17¢	2.3¢	$202	−$1,321	+$8.71	2mo
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	4,101	7.3¢	4¢	$162	−$136	+$1,519	3mo
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?	Yes	4,706	11.1¢	3.3¢	$153	−$369	+$38	15d 21h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	12.4k	4.1¢	1.1¢	$130	−$375	+$107	2mo
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	3,907	3.2¢	2.8¢	$109	−$14	+$43	4mo
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,234	2.9¢	3.2¢	$102	+$6.76	+$17	3mo
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,234	2.9¢	2.5¢	$79	−$16	−$10.00	3mo
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	6,958	0.7¢	0.8¢	$52	+$6.85	$0	6mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	9,440	8.7¢	0.5¢	$52	−$769	−$3.17	16d 21h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	12.8k	3.1¢	0.4¢	$51	−$344	−$58	2mo
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,204	2.9¢	1.6¢	$50	−$45	+$16	3mo
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	3,639	3.7¢	1.2¢	$42	−$94	+$298	22d 21h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	5,223	9.5¢	0.8¢	$42	−$454	+$36	22d 21h
Will Taylor Rogers be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,719	2.9¢	1¢	$37	−$72	−$30	3mo
Will Tricia McLaughlin be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,314	2.9¢	0.9¢	$30	−$68	−$13	3mo
Will Liz Huston be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,704	2.9¢	0.8¢	$28	−$81	−$22	3mo
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	6,107	7.2¢	0.5¢	$27	−$409	−$172	19d 21h
Will Kari Lake be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,117	2.9¢	0.6¢	$25	−$96	−$24	3mo
Will Lauren Bis be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,969	2.9¢	0.6¢	$24	−$93	−$17	3mo
Will Beni Rae Harmony be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,246	2.9¢	0.5¢	$24	−$131	$0	3mo
Will Harrison Fields be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,312	2.9¢	0.5¢	$19	−$107	−$21	3mo
Will Pat Adams be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,224	2.9¢	0.5¢	$19	−$105	−$15	3mo
Will Lara Trump be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,514	2.9¢	0.4¢	$18	−$115	−$14	3mo
Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,466	2.9¢	0.5¢	$17	−$85	−$27	3mo
Will Matthew Boyle be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,673	2.9¢	0.4¢	$16	−$121	−$14	3mo
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	31.7k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$16	−$340	−$2.98	3mo
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	31.6k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$16	−$339	−$78	21d 21h
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	29.0k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$15	−$311	+$1,919	21d 21h
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	28.8k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$14	−$310	+$1,503	21d 21h
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	28.8k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$14	−$309	+$1,331	21d 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	3,154	1.4¢	0.5¢	$14	−$31	+$140	3mo
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	25.9k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$13	−$279	+$29	3mo
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	Yes	5,134	9.9¢	0.3¢	$13	−$494	+$184	1d 21h
Will Daniel Hadad win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	3,157	1.6¢	0.4¢	$13	−$37	+$34	12mo
Will Katie Pavlich be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,976	2.9¢	0.3¢	$12	−$134	+$7.75	3mo
Will Kaelan Dorr be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,836	2.9¢	0.3¢	$12	−$130	−$9.63	3mo
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	22.3k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$11	−$609	−$115	ended
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	22.3k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$11	−$609	−$118	ended
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	22.1k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$11	−$603	−$126	ended
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	21.7k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$11	−$233	+$1,392	21d 21h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	21.6k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$11	−$232	+$431	3mo
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	7,107	8¢	0.2¢	$11	−$556	−$41	19d 21h
Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	6,958	0.7¢	0.2¢	$10	−$35	$0	6mo
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	19.5k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$9.75	−$532	−$182	ended
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	19.1k	1.1¢	0.1¢	$9.55	−$205	+$1,738	3mo
Will Kush Desai be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,712	2.9¢	0.2¢	$9.42	−$129	−$12	3mo
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	9,409	3.6¢	0.1¢	$9.41	−$327	+$288	18d 21h
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	18.3k	2.8¢	0.1¢	$9.14	−$498	−$205	ended
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	8,808	3.1¢	0.1¢	$8.81	−$266	+$117	21d 21h
Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	3,227	1.6¢	0.3¢	$8.07	−$42	$0	12mo
Will Ari Fleischer be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,246	2.9¢	0.2¢	$7.87	−$146	$0	3mo
Will Monica Crowley be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5,006	2.9¢	0.2¢	$7.51	−$140	−$6.40	3mo
Will Spencer Pratt be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	4,371	2.9¢	0.2¢	$6.56	−$122	−$19	3mo
Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	3,851	2.9¢	0.2¢	$5.78	−$107	−$35	3mo
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	10.9k	5.8¢	0.1¢	$5.45	−$625	$0	22d 21h
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,893	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.95	−$304	$0	21d 21h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,793	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.90	−$301	−$3.03	21d 21h
Will Máximo Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	3,227	1.6¢	0.2¢	$4.84	−$46	$0	12mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	9,423	8.7¢	0.1¢	$4.71	−$815	$0	16d 21h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	Yes	9,329	8.8¢	0.1¢	$4.66	−$812	$0	16d 21h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	9,275	3.1¢	0.1¢	$4.64	−$285	−$18	21d 21h

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
4m ago	BUY Yes	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	9.8¢	30	$2.94	53%	66
4m ago	BUY Yes	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	11.8¢	23	$2.69	53%	66
4m ago	BUY Yes	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	0.4¢	30	$0.12	53%	66
4m ago	BUY Yes	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	1.3¢	30	$0.39	53%	66
4m ago	BUY Yes	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	3.1¢	30	$0.93	53%	66
9m ago	SELL Yes	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?	1.7¢	10	$0.17	53%	66
9m ago	SELL Yes	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 10, 2026?	0.4¢	15	$0.06	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?	97.6¢	119	$116	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?	99.4¢	119	$119	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Movistar KOI win Worlds 2026?	99.7¢	250	$249	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?	99.4¢	250	$249	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?	95.2¢	250	$238	53%	66
11m ago	SELL Yes	Will Cloud9 win Worlds 2026?	0.1¢	250	$0.25	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Movistar KOI win Worlds 2026?	99.7¢	119	$119	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?	98.7¢	119	$118	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	95¢	119	$113	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026?	94.8¢	119	$113	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	86¢	119	$103	53%	66
11m ago	BUY No	Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	85¢	119	$101	53%	66
11m ago	SELL Yes	Will LYON win Worlds 2026?	0.6¢	119	$0.72	53%	66