sharpside
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CT-test

0x5ad…d276
WR 60+<7d old<14d old<30d oldPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$64vol $19.1k
PnL 30d−$143gains $38 · losses $93
PnL 7d−$143win rate 7d 61.5%
Win rate61.5%adj 54.5% · 30d 61.5%
Open value$4,318cash n/a
Positions41 / 54open / all-time
Max drawdown−15.0%of equity peak
Account age3dlast trade 26m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$166below peak −$150Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 61.5% · shrunk toward 50%36
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable58
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity85

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$17US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$8.46Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? · Yesclosed+$7.48US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · Yesopen+$5.55US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · Yesopen+$4.75

Worst markets

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? · Noclosed−$73Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yesopen−$64US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? · Noopen−$21US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yesopen−$20Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$18

Open positions · 41

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes77577.6¢77.5¢$600−$1.00$0
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No61082¢82.5¢$503+$3.05$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No50299.5¢99.6¢$500+$0.05$0
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes39377.4¢77.5¢$304+$0.40$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No43459.2¢58.5¢$254−$3.11−$5.30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes26695¢95.1¢$253+$0.27+$1.54
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes41160.9¢56¢$230−$20$0
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes23097.5¢96.8¢$222−$1.72$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Yes32577.4¢58.5¢$190−$62−$2.41
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes22284.2¢85.6¢$190+$3.05$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No18999.3¢99.6¢$188+$0.39$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yes16674¢75.5¢$125+$2.49$0
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?No24748.5¢44¢$109−$11$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes56417¢17.5¢$99+$2.82+$2.73
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Yes11185¢73.5¢$82−$13$0
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No5587.3¢87.2¢$48−$0.06$0
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes7266.7¢66.5¢$48−$0.14$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No10741¢41.5¢$44+$0.53−$2.88
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes4497.3¢96.4¢$42−$0.38$0
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?No9250¢40.5¢$37−$8.76$0
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Yes4176¢79¢$32+$1.22$0
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes3975¢79¢$31+$1.56$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?No5938.4¢4.9¢$29−$21$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes6838¢39.5¢$27+$1.03+$0.77
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No2484¢84.5¢$20+$0.11$0
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No2380¢87.5¢$20+$1.72+$0.05
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?No1872¢93.5¢$17+$3.88$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes14111¢11.5¢$16+$0.71+$4.04
Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026?Yes1791¢89.5¢$16−$0.26$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes2443¢37¢$8.91−$1.44−$0.23
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo793¢91.5¢$6.53−$0.11$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?Yes4518.5¢14.2¢$6.35−$1.91−$0.10
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?Yes1824¢29¢$5.20+$0.90$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?No484¢85¢$3.59+$0.04$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?Yes560¢54.5¢$2.73−$0.28$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?Yes5813¢4¢$2.33−$5.25−$0.21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 8, 2026?Yes651.6¢3.5¢$2.29+$1.24$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by October 31?Yes518¢20.5¢$1.02+$0.13$0
Cuban regime falls in 2026?No190¢89.5¢$0.99−$0.01$0
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2500.4¢0.4¢$0.88−$0.12$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?Yes336.2¢0.1¢$0−$1.00$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?95.2¢70$6762%27
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?79¢212$16762%27
SELL YesUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?17.9¢319$5762%27
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?79¢212$16762%27
BUY YesWill Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?97.3¢44$4262%27
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?78¢211$16562%27
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?96¢140$13462%27
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42¢320$13562%27
SELL NoWill Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?87¢0$0.3562%27
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?67¢20$1362%27
SELL YesIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?41¢11$4.6762%27
SELL YesIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?17.4¢48$8.4062%27
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?25¢10$2.4062%27
SELL NoWill Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?87¢0$0.1462%27
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?8¢1$0.0962%27
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?10¢5$0.4662%27
BUY YesIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?43¢35$1562%27
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?12¢151$1862%27
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?74¢13$9.2662%27
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85¢1$1.0062%27